Will Israeli voters turf Netanyahu?

On October 26, 2026, Israelis head to the polls for their first parliamentary elections since the devastating Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The election primarily centers around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's legacy and his ability to maintain power despite significant security failures and ongoing conflicts with Iran and Hamas. With both major blocs—Netanyahu’s Likud party and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s camp—expected to secure roughly 50 seats each in the Knesset, neither is likely to achieve a majority on their own. This situation could force Netanyahu or his opponents to seek support from smaller parties, including Arab factions that make up about 20% of Israel's population.

The campaign has largely avoided discussions of ongoing military conflicts and instead focused on domestic issues such as exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service and Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reforms. The election is seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership, with his political survival hanging in the balance after three years marked by intense crises and wars across the region. A poor showing could signal the end of Netanyahu's long career and pave the way for significant changes in Israeli politics.