Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike

Read the original at Evening Standard ↗
Cite

Wise, A. (2026, October 25). Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/john-healey-banks-lloyds-banking-group-barclays-budget-b1302251.html

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-25 · by Anna Wise

Quick Summary

Banks are expected to report increased profits despite facing a potential tax hike. The UK Treasury is considering raising the bank surcharge from 3% to 8%, reversing a previous reduction. Lloyds Banking Group forecasts nearly double its third-quarter profit compared to last year, with NatWest and HSBC also showing significant gains at £2.2 billion and $9.7 billion respectively. Analyst Richard Hunter suggests that the tax hike could reduce earnings by up to 6% and affect domestic banks more than international ones.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-25, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 25, 2026, banks in the UK are expected to report higher profits despite facing the potential for an increased tax surcharge on their earnings. The surcharge, currently at 3%, is speculated to rise to 8% under Mr Healey's consideration, reversing a cut introduced by former Conservative Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Lloyds Banking Group, which is the UK’s largest mortgage lender, reported pre-tax profits of £2.3 billion for the third quarter, marking an increase of 12% from the same period last year. The group also announced plans to cut 5,000 staff, about 5% of its total workforce, as part of cost-saving measures and investments in technology like AI.

Written for “Banks Profits And Tax Hike Prospects” on 2026-10-25, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.30, but every quote it verified points left, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 105487: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-25

Story

📰 Banks Profits And Tax Hike Prospects
Economy/Business · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 20% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard · 1.00 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 3 of 15 📰 publisher trust 65
“Both articles report identical information about banks facing a potential tax hike and increased profits, including direct quotes from CS Venkatakrishnan and financial details.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss different aspects of Barclays' operations and financial situation without describing the same specific incident.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A reports on Barclays cutting jobs due to AI implementation, while Article B discusses potential tax hikes and reported profits.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 26 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss different aspects related to economic policy and business responses but describe distinct events: one about businesses holding back on hiring due to employment costs, and another about banks expecting stronger profits despite potential tax hikes.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss different aspects of Barclays' financial situation and plans; one focuses on job cuts due to technology investments, while the other discusses expected profits and potential tax hikes.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 22% hedged 2 of 9 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A discusses the CBI's response to potential tax hikes for banks, while Article B reports on banks' expected profit increases and their reaction to the prospect of higher taxes. Although both articles are related to the same issue, they describe different specific events.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 15 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss similar developments but describe different points in time and distinct aspects — Article A reports on Barclays' profits announcement and upcoming tax hike, while Article B discusses banks reporting stronger profits in general and the broader implications of a potential tax increase.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 12 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss different aspects of Barclays' financial performance and strategies without clearly referring to the same specific incident or period.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
20%
3 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
2
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-25 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 6939 article(s) · 56 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 56 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Anna Wise
62 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
🔮 Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
🔮 The closures were expected to help offset an expected increase in betting taxes of up to £135 million a year from 2027 due to changes affecting online gambling firms introduced by former chancellor Rachel Reeves.
🔮 “AI has an important role to play and may have a more important role to play in the future.
🔮 Inflation rising to the highest rate in almost a year makes it more likely that the Bank of England will hike interest rates next month, with living costs set to rise further this winter, economists think.
🔮 But he said the Government’s decision on Wednesday to begin drilling in the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea was investment “in our clean energy future and supporting British workers”. “Maintaining our fiscal discipline and drive for growth in every postcode, while giving businesses and families some breathing space.” Experts said the latest figures could put more pressure on Mr Healey to unveil new cost-of-living support measures in his autumn Budget statement next week.
🔮 UK inflation expected to have accelerated in September after fuel surge UK inflation is expected to have accelerated last month as higher fuel and energy costs continue to push up the cost of living, economists think.
🔮 The tech giant is expected to provide another update on the situation on Tuesday afternoon.
🔮 Read More “The number of workers on payroll remains slightly down over the same period, though data for the most recent month suggests that might be starting to level off. “
🔮 Tinder is not “running away” from the fact that more young singletons would rather meet in person than online, its boss has insisted as the dating app hopes real-life events can drive a resurgence in interest.
Also by Anna Wise
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 62 articles by Anna Wise →

Topics

Conservative Lloyds Lloyds Banking Group NatWest Venkat

Subjects

NatWest ORG · 3× Lloyds ORG · 2× Venkat PERSON · 2× CS Venkatakrishnan PERSON · 1× Conservative NORP · 1× HSBC ORG · 1× Healey PERSON · 1× Jeremy Hunt PERSON · 1× Lloyds Banking Group ORG · 1× the Financial Conduct Authority’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
framing: assertive · carried by 2 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-23
🔮 Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
2026-10-23 · Evening Standard
Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike · assertive framing
2026-10-25 · Evening Standard
Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike · assertive framing

Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)

Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt. asserted
Healey → set → Hunt
Chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan, known within the bank as Venkat, said: “We are already a bank which makes a lot of our money outside the UK so this is not a question of a financial hit to us – it’s bearable.” asserted
it → know → us
It came as the bank reported pre-tax profits £2.3 billion, an increase of 12% on the same quarter last year. asserted
bank → come → quarter
The figures came alongside the announcement that it was planning to cut 5,000 staff this year, or about 5% of its total workforce, as part of cost savings across the bank. asserted
it → come → bank
Venkat said deploying artificial intelligence (AI) was the “icing on the cake” of efforts to invest in technology that will make the bank more efficient. asserted
bank → say → technology
Lloyds Banking Group, which is the UK’s largest mortgage lender, is forecast to report a near-doubling of its third-quarter profit on Thursday. asserted
which → forecast → Thursday
Read More A consensus of analysts show the banking group reporting a pre-tax profit of £2.3 billion, up from £1.2 billion a year ago. asserted
group → read → billion
However, last year’s figures were impacted by a £1.95 billion provision for potential costs related the Financial Conduct Authority’s compensation scheme for drivers who were mis-sold a car loan. asserted
who → impact → loan
This scheme is currently on hold as it comes up against legal challenges from other lenders and consumer representatives in court. asserted
it → come → court
NatWest is expected to report an operating pre-tax profit of £2.2 billion, which would be flat on the previous year. asserted
which → expect → year
While HSBC is forecast to report a jump in earnings to a 9.7 billion dollar pre-tax profit (£7.3 billion), from 7.3 billion dollars (£5.5 billion) the year before. asserted
HSBC → forecast → dollars
Richard Hunter, head of markets for Interactive Investor, said increasing the bank surcharge could “reduce earnings by a possible 6%” and “decrease global competitiveness given that its rates of corporation tax are already among the highest to be found globally”. uncertain
rates → say → highest
“It is also thought that the domestic banks, Lloyds and NatWest, could be most affected,” he said. uncertain
he → think → ?
However, Mr Hunter said Lloyds has been building alternative sources of income such as insurance, credit cards and wealth management which could “lessen the reliance on the more traditional income streams”. uncertain
which → say → streams
“Meanwhile NatWest is now enjoying a new lease of life,” he added, referring to recent shareholder returns and acquisitions including the £2.7 billion purchase of Evelyn Partners. asserted
he → enjoy → Partners
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