Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike

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Cite

Wise, A. (2026, October 23). Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/john-healey-banks-lloyds-banking-group-barclays-budget-b1302071.html

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-23 · by Anna Wise

Quick Summary

Banks are expected to report increased profits despite facing a potential tax hike. The UK Treasury is considering raising the bank surcharge from 3% to 8%, reversing a previous reduction. Lloyds Banking Group forecasts near-doubling of its third-quarter profit, reporting £2.3 billion in pre-tax earnings, up 12% year-over-year. NatWest and HSBC are also projected to report strong profits, with HSBC's expected to rise to $9.7 billion (£7.3 billion) from $7.3 billion (£5.5 billion). Analyst Richard Hunter suggests the tax hike could reduce bank earnings by up to 6% and impact domestic banks more significantly than international ones.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-23, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 23, 2026, banks are expected to report increased profits despite facing potential tax hikes. According to speculation, Chancellor Jeremy Healey is considering raising the surcharge on bank profits from 3% to 8%, reversing a previous reduction by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Lloyds Banking Group, the UK’s largest mortgage lender, forecasts near-doubling of its third-quarter profit to £2.3 billion, marking a 12% increase year-over-year. The bank's CEO CS Venkatakrishnan (known as Venkat) stated that the proposed tax hike would be manageable for Lloyds but noted plans to cut 5,000 jobs this year, representing about 5% of its workforce. Additionally, Venkat emphasized that deploying artificial intelligence is part of efforts to enhance efficiency and technology investment within the bank.

Written for “Bank Profits And Tax Hike Prospects” on 2026-10-23, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.30, but every quote it verified points left, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 101579: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-23

Story

📰 Bank Profits And Tax Hike Prospects
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 20% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 27% hedged 4 of 15 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss different aspects of financial reporting and tax policies in response to budget uncertainties, but do not describe the same specific incident or outcome.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles describe different aspects of the Budget and its implications for capital gains tax and bank profits, not a single specific incident.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A reports on job cuts at Barclays due to AI implementation, while Article B discusses potential tax hikes and reported profits. These are distinct events.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A reports on job cuts at Barclays due to increased use of AI, while Article B discusses potential tax hikes and reported profits for banks.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A reports on job cuts at Barclays due to AI adoption, while Article B discusses potential tax hikes and increased profits for banks, including a statement from the same CEO but about different financial outcomes.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 15 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe a general trend and specific profit report for Barclays, but they do not cover the exact same news event or occurrence.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 12 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss different aspects of Barclays' financial performance and future plans; one focuses on job cuts and profit growth, while the other discusses potential tax hikes.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 22% hedged 2 of 9 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss related speculation about tax hikes for banks but describe different aspects: one focuses on CBI's reaction, while the other reports bank profits and executive comments.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
20%
3 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-23 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 6713 article(s) · 56 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 56 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Anna Wise
61 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
🔮 The closures were expected to help offset an expected increase in betting taxes of up to £135 million a year from 2027 due to changes affecting online gambling firms introduced by former chancellor Rachel Reeves.
🔮 “AI has an important role to play and may have a more important role to play in the future.
🔮 Inflation rising to the highest rate in almost a year makes it more likely that the Bank of England will hike interest rates next month, with living costs set to rise further this winter, economists think.
🔮 But he said the Government’s decision on Wednesday to begin drilling in the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea was investment “in our clean energy future and supporting British workers”. “Maintaining our fiscal discipline and drive for growth in every postcode, while giving businesses and families some breathing space.” Experts said the latest figures could put more pressure on Mr Healey to unveil new cost-of-living support measures in his autumn Budget statement next week.
🔮 UK inflation expected to have accelerated in September after fuel surge UK inflation is expected to have accelerated last month as higher fuel and energy costs continue to push up the cost of living, economists think.
🔮 The tech giant is expected to provide another update on the situation on Tuesday afternoon.
🔮 Read More “The number of workers on payroll remains slightly down over the same period, though data for the most recent month suggests that might be starting to level off. “
🔮 Tinder is not “running away” from the fact that more young singletons would rather meet in person than online, its boss has insisted as the dating app hopes real-life events can drive a resurgence in interest.
🔮 It also found that some staff felt there was no benefit in raising concerns internally because it would not amount to any change.
Also by Anna Wise
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 61 articles by Anna Wise →

Topics

Conservative Lloyds Lloyds Banking Group NatWest Venkat

Subjects

NatWest ORG · 3× Lloyds ORG · 2× Venkat PERSON · 2× CS Venkatakrishnan PERSON · 1× Conservative NORP · 1× HSBC ORG · 1× Healey PERSON · 1× Jeremy Hunt PERSON · 1× Lloyds Banking Group ORG · 1× the Financial Conduct Authority’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-23
🔮 Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
2026-10-23 · Evening Standard
Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike · assertive framing

Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)

Banks set to report stronger profits as they face prospect of tax hike Banks are widely speculated to be a target with Mr Healey thought to be considering increasing the surcharge on profits from 3% to 8% – reversing a tax cut for the sector introduced by former Conservative chancellor Jeremy Hunt. asserted
Healey → set → Hunt
Chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan, known within the bank as Venkat, said: “We are already a bank which makes a lot of our money outside the UK so this is not a question of a financial hit to us – it’s bearable.” asserted
it → know → us
It came as the bank reported pre-tax profits £2.3 billion, an increase of 12% on the same quarter last year. asserted
bank → come → quarter
The figures came alongside the announcement that it was planning to cut 5,000 staff this year, or about 5% of its total workforce, as part of cost savings across the bank. asserted
it → come → bank
Venkat said deploying artificial intelligence (AI) was the “icing on the cake” of efforts to invest in technology that will make the bank more efficient. asserted
bank → say → technology
Lloyds Banking Group, which is the UK’s largest mortgage lender, is forecast to report a near-doubling of its third-quarter profit on Thursday. asserted
which → forecast → Thursday
Read More A consensus of analysts show the banking group reporting a pre-tax profit of £2.3 billion, up from £1.2 billion a year ago. asserted
group → read → billion
However, last year’s figures were impacted by a £1.95 billion provision for potential costs related the Financial Conduct Authority’s compensation scheme for drivers who were mis-sold a car loan. asserted
who → impact → loan
This scheme is currently on hold as it comes up against legal challenges from other lenders and consumer representatives in court. asserted
it → come → court
NatWest is expected to report an operating pre-tax profit of £2.2 billion, which would be flat on the previous year. asserted
which → expect → year
While HSBC is forecast to report a jump in earnings to a 9.7 billion dollar pre-tax profit (£7.3 billion), from 7.3 billion dollars (£5.5 billion) the year before. asserted
HSBC → forecast → dollars
Richard Hunter, head of markets for Interactive Investor, said increasing the bank surcharge could “reduce earnings by a possible 6%” and “decrease global competitiveness given that its rates of corporation tax are already among the highest to be found globally”. uncertain
rates → say → highest
“It is also thought that the domestic banks, Lloyds and NatWest, could be most affected,” he said. uncertain
he → think → ?
However, Mr Hunter said Lloyds has been building alternative sources of income such as insurance, credit cards and wealth management which could “lessen the reliance on the more traditional income streams”. uncertain
which → say → streams
“Meanwhile NatWest is now enjoying a new lease of life,” he added, referring to recent shareholder returns and acquisitions including the £2.7 billion purchase of Evelyn Partners. asserted
he → enjoy → Partners
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