I attended the world's first AI safety summit in Bletchley Park in November 2023 where the focus was on the most serious threats imaginable, posed by the most powerful AI models.
asserted
focus → attend → models
At the time, many thought this was in the realm of sci-fi and the real threats were comparatively far more mundane: job losses, cheating in exams.
asserted
threats → think → exams
Three years later, many of those same voices don't seem to be so sure.
asserted
many → seem → voices
On Saturday head of AI company Anthropic, Dario Amodei, urged the pace of development to be slowed down - the bosses of two rival AI firms, Sam Altman of OpenAI and Elon Musk said they agreed with him.
asserted
they → urge → him
Meanwhile AI researcher Jacob Coxon - who quit Anthropic - told the BBC on Sunday staff who were developing the systems were "genuinely frightened" for the future of humanity.
asserted
who → quit → humanity
They all add up to a chorus of serious voices urging a slowdown, but although it might sound like a quick fix, it is far from an easy solution.
uncertain
it → add → solution
America is widely understood to be terrified of losing the race to build the most powerful AI to China.
asserted
America → understand → China
On Sunday President Trump made his own views clear, claiming the US was ahead of China in the AI race and declaring: "Whoever wins AI, wins."
asserted
wins → make → AI
China isn't renowned for wanting to come second.
asserted
China → renowne → ?
Everyone I speak to says that even if their company pauses, others will not and they will just get left behind.
asserted
they → speak → ?
It reminds me of the height of the campaign for nuclear disarmament.
asserted
It → remind → disarmament
The problem then too was that nobody wanted to go first.
asserted
nobody → want → ?
There is also the question of how on earth a slowdown would be enforced.
asserted
slowdown → be → earth
Who would police it?
asserted
Who → police → it
Would we be relying on the AI companies to be transparent about what they are doing, and more importantly what they are choosing not to do?
asserted
they → rely → what
That would require an epic level of trust, which arguably the tech sector has never earned.
asserted
sector → require → which
Although Amodei in his post proposed a three-point plan that included independent monitoring of AI models as they are developed, industry-wide regulation and global regulation, some observers question how this would work in practice.
"
asserted
this → propose → practice
Nobody has given a substantive explanation of what 'slowdown' means," said Ed Zitron, CEO of EZ Primary Research.
asserted
Zitron → give → Research
"Putting a plant from METR, where one of the guys who quit Anthropic went, in every AI company?
asserted
who → put → company
Doesn't mean anything to me."
Zitron said stopping training AI models would leave them vulnerable to Chinese rivals.
asserted
Zitron → mean → rivals
"Their margins might improve but their products will be captured in amber and distilled by Chinese labs.
uncertain
products → improve → labs
They may have to change pricing.
uncertain
They → have → pricing
I truly don't know how it all works.
asserted
it → know → ?
"This could burst the bubble.
uncertain
This → burst → bubble
But right now we are very thin on what a 'slowdown' means."
asserted
slowdown → mean → what
In the UK, we have heard about plans to roll out the tech more widely within the NHS to improve patient care, and how AI gave the UK economy a much-needed boost over the summer.
asserted
AI → hear → summer
We are all being encouraged to use it more and more at work, in education and in our personal lives.
asserted
We → encourage → lives
The industry is a key part of the UK's strategy to drive economic growth.
asserted
industry → drive → growth
"There is no plan B" a former government adviser told me, so could a slowdown wreck future prospects here in Britain?
uncertain
slowdown → be → Britain
The AI industry is burning through enormous amounts of money and natural resources and so far, is not creating nearly as much revenue.
asserted
industry → burn → revenue
There are multiple reports suggesting a number of firms adopting the technology are disappointed by it.
asserted
number → be → it
Economists widely speculate that even the current giants are not all likely to survive and that some kind of "levelling" is coming – also known as a bursting bubble.
asserted
kind → speculate → bubble
But those firms which do make it could end up becoming the most powerful mega-corporations the world has ever seen, and that comes with its own issues.
uncertain
that → make → issues
OpenAI choosing to halt its march to the stock market could be seen as an epiphany-like moment of taking responsibility for public safety – but it could also be the move of a company which has realised it might not get the lucrative payout it needs while its entire product is perceived to be lethal.
uncertain
product → choose → payout
"One of probably the biggest challenges that we have right now is that no one can predict with certainty how this technology is going to evolve," says Alexander Voica from the UK AI company Synthesia.
asserted
Voica → have → company
"We know that these systems are getting more powerful, but we don't know where and how they're going to be used, and we haven't figured out essentially a way of taking full advantage of their potential.
asserted
we → know → potential
My only concern in rushing to regulate now, where there's still a lot of open questions, is that it could actually backfire.
uncertain
it → rush → questions
"
We also can't deny the fact that underpinning this entire tech revolution is an ocean of investor cash.
asserted
ocean → deny → cash
"I'm not worried about the existential risks of AI, I'm worried about the corporate greed of the companies that are creating it," says Sasha Luccioni, the founder of Sustainable AI Group.
asserted
Luccioni → create → Group
Leading computer scientist Professor Dame Wendy Hall, who has advised the UN about AI, says the current crisis is all about the companies not behaving responsibly enough.
asserted
companies → lead → AI
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
