Five Sundays ago, NDP Leader David Eby was gearing up to call a surprise election.
asserted
Eby → gear → election
But that day, he received a surprise of his own: Embattled B.C. Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned after just four months on the job.
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Findlay → receive → job
And, he acknowledged during a recent editorial meeting with The Globe and Mail, he was just as shocked to see her replaced that same day by Lorne Doerkson, a 58-year-old former small-town newspaper publisher from the Interior and two-term MLA whom most people had never heard of.
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people → acknowledge → whom
Despite his unknown opponent, Mr. Eby called the election two days later on Sept. 22.
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Eby → call → Sept.
The timing of this decision became a frequent issue for him throughout the campaign.
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timing → become → campaign
Greg Lyle, a Sunshine Coast-based pollster who is president of Innovative Research Group, said the call meant the NDP was fighting an election with far more uncertainty.
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NDP → base → uncertainty
With Ms. Findlay gone, Mr. Lyle said, it proved much more difficult to tie Mr. Doerkson to the same grievances and goals animating the greatest existential threat to B.C.’s economy: U.S. President Donald Trump.
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it → go → economy
Mr. Eby “thought he was going to be running against Kerry-Lynne and he ended up with someone else, but they had two full days to figure this thing out or to not call the election,” said Mr. Lyle, who began polling for Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservative Party in the 1993 federal election.
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who → think → election
“At that point, you just don’t call it and you would have a perfectly good excuse: ‘It’s not a responsible thing to call an election when there’s so much disarray in the main opposition, we’re going to give them a chance to catch their breath.’
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we → call → breath
The Conservatives appear to have caught their breath anyway.
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Conservatives → appear → breath
Most opinion polls show them either statistically tied with the NDP, or slightly ahead.
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them → show → NDP
The New Democrats have governed the province for nine years, since the late John Horgan formed government with the support of three Green Party MLAs in 2017.
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Horgan → govern → 2017
Mr. Eby succeeded Mr. Horgan as leader and premier in 2022.
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Eby → succeed → 2022
Two years ago, he won a slim majority government with 47 seats, compared with 44 for a resurgent BC Conservative Party and two for the Greens.
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he → win → Greens
During a campaign appearance this week, Mr. Eby acknowledged that him snapping his term in half is still front of mind for many voters.
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snapping → acknowledge → voters
“The No. 1 question that people ask me is why are we having an election. …
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we → ask → election
I get it.
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I → get → it
I know that people have a lot going on.
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people → know → lot
I know they didn’t want an election right now.
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they → know → election
I hear the frustration and I understand it,” he said.
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he → hear → it
But, Mr. Eby said in the lone leaders’ debate, he requires the stability of a majority mandate to make the “big swings” that British Columbians need government to deliver.
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Columbians → say → government
Over the course of the race, the Conservatives dropped two candidates after the NDP highlighted their past anti-Islamic and antisemitic statements.
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NDP → drop → statements
However, the party kept Katy Merrifield as campaign director despite controversy over an anti-Islamic social-media post she had made in June.
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she → keep → June
She took it down within hours of posting, and after the backlash erupted earlier this month, she explained that, as a rape survivor, she posted in anger upon hearing about an independent “Rape Gang Inquiry” in Britain.
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she → take → Britain
She said she misdirected her fury at the entire religion instead of the “extremism used to justify these horrific crimes.”
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she → say → crimes
The New Democrats, meanwhile, had to explain why Mr. Eby and his doctor wife, who earn multiple times the province’s median household income, were benefiting from their child using one of B.C.’s scarce $10-a-day subsidized daycare spots.
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child → have → spots
Regardless of who forms government, neither of the main parties presented clear paths back to fiscal stability in the near or even medium term amid rising deficits, a mounting debt load and tumbling credit ratings.
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neither → form → deficits
Economists say tax hikes proposed by the NDP and Greens could raise less revenue than projected and discourage economic activity, while the Conservatives’ tax cut could put B.C. further in the red.
uncertain
cut → say → red
The NDP’s plan shows the deficit falling from roughly $13.8-billion this fiscal year (after adjusting for the government’s pause to its planned expansion of provincial sales taxes on professional services) to $11.97-billion in fiscal 2028-29.
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deficit → show → 2028
To achieve even that modest reduction, the party’s plan relies on a tax increase on the top 4 per cent of earners and up to $730-million a year of new revenue from “targeted economic growth” tied to major projects.
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plan → achieve → projects
However, planned new spending would absorb most of the new revenue.
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spending → absorb → revenue
Meanwhile, the Conservatives said their plan will bring B.C.’s annual deficit down to $10.8-billion by 2029-30, which would still be more than twice the province’s 2023-24 shortfall.
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which → say → 2029
The plan was harshly criticized for relying on rosy growth predictions.
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plan → criticize → predictions
To reach its target, the party said it would reduce the province’s contingency reserve fund, enact a hiring freeze, review spending at most ministries and cut outside consultants.
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it → reach → consultants
The plan bakes in $2.6-billion of extra revenue from faster growth over three years.
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plan → bake → years
But a tax cut achieved by raising the province’s personal income tax exemption level to save most workers $1,000 a year would offset that extra revenue by about $3.4-billion annually.
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cut → achieve → billion
Both the NDP and the Conservatives pledged to fully fund the health care system.
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NDP → pledge → system
To help people with the crushing cost of necessities, the NDP pledged to suspend 10 cents a litre of the provincial motor fuel tax, and promised up to another 20 cents off by asking the BC Utilities Commission to cap the price of gasoline.
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NDP → help → gasoline
The Conservatives promised to cut the 10-per-cent provincial sales tax on Canadian alcohol.
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Conservatives → promise → alcohol
Political scientist Stewart Prest of the University of British Columbia said the two parties focused the final stretch of the campaign on Surrey, Vancouver’s southeastern suburb and the second most populous city in the province.
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parties → say → province
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
