On Oct. 22, reporters Mike Hager and Ian Bailey and columnist Gary Mason answered reader questions about British Columbia’s coming provincial election.
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Hager → answer → election
On Sept. 22, Premier David Eby called a snap provincial election, citing the “existential” threat of U.S. President Donald Trump.
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Eby → call → Trump
The NDP Leader’s decision followed months of disarray within the B.C. Conservatives, whose leader resigned just days before the election was called.
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election → follow → Conservatives
Voters return to the polls barely two years since the last provincial election.
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Voters → return → election
Readers asked about Mr. Eby’s chances at winning, Conservative leadership and in which ridings the Greens are expected to do well.
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Greens → ask → chances
Here are some highlights from the Q&A.
All eyes on election day
Is calling an election when the opposition party doesn’t have a permanent leader unprecedented?
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party → call → leader
Could the Lt. Governor have said no to dissolving the legislature?
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Governor → say → legislature
Scholars have told us that, though it could be seen as craven, calling the snap election two days after Kerry-Lynne Findlay was turfed as the Opposition leader and replaced on an interim basis by Lorne Doerkson is constitutional.
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Findlay → tell → Doerkson
Lt.-Gov. Wendy Lisogar-Cocchia would be loathe to weigh in on the ethics of this snap election call, as doing so would open up a whole whack of other scenarios where she would have to jump in to override future calls for an election.
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she → weigh → election
From everything I’ve read there is only one other situation that is similar.
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that → read → everything
In 1969 in Manitoba, the Progressive Conservative government called an election while the NDP was in the midst of a leadership race which was eventually won by Ed Schreyer, who was only 33 at the time.
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who → call → time
The NDP ended up winning the election in part because voters were angry by the government’s cheap tactic.
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voters → end → tactic
What has Eby accomplished during his time in office?
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Eby → accomplish → office
Andrea Woo and I took a look at Mr. Eby’s record here.
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Woo → take → record
The outcome of the election will be crucial to determining whether Mr. Eby’s political story is over or if he gets another chapter.
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he → determine → chapter
How could this election impact politics at the national level, major projects, etc.?
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election → impact → level
However, Lorne Doerkson has said the Conservatives’ No. 1 priority if they form government is to repeal the province’s 2019 Indigenous reconciliation law, which could introduce a large amount of uncertainty in B.C. and lead to more opposition to such projects.
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which → say → projects
B.C. has needs for more money for health and education, but has a growing deficit and debt.
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B.C. → have → deficit
How have the parties said they’ll deal with it?
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they → say → it
You’re zeroing in on what I consider the biggest question of the election: How does the next government balance needs in health and education with the province’s deteriorating fiscal situation?
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government → zero → situation
Simply put, the province can’t continue to run the kind of gargantuan and irresponsible deficits that they have been under the NDP.
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they → put → NDP
If the Conservatives get in, we will see if they have the courage to put the brakes on spending or continue down the same path as the NDP.
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they → get → NDP
What are the chances this backfires for the NDP?
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this → backfire → NDP
Could the NDP suffer bleeding popular support to the B.C. Greens or CentreBC?
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NDP → suffer → Greens
Hager: Yes, the New Democrats could certainly lose ground to the Greens in some crucial ridings.
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Democrats → lose → ridings
But the opposite scenario may be true as well, whereby Green supporters hold their noses and vote orange in an attempt to thwart the Conservatives from forming government.
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supporters → hold → government
CentreBC is not thought to be a big factor in many ridings, but their star candidate, former Green Party leader Andrew Weaver, might present a challenge to the NDP in his hometown of Oak Bay.
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candidate → think → Bay
How can Green Party Leader Emily Lowan publicly promise this, without federal support?
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Lowan → promise → support
Ms. Lowan announced that her party would introduce a one-time tax of 5 per cent on net wealth above $50-million, 10 per cent above $100-million and 20 per cent above $1-billion.
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party → announce → billion
This would raise an estimated $22.2-billion after accounting for administrative costs and behavioural responses, the party said.
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party → raise → costs
There are real questions about how this would work.
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this → be → ?
I called up economist Jared Walker, and he said the Greens admit they would probably face a Constitutional challenge on this tax.
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they → call → tax
But, they could try it by getting Statistics Canada and CRA filings on the province’s wealthiest families, monitoring them to see if they’re moving any assets out of the province, and then hit them with this prohibitive levy.
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they → try → levy
It would require a sizable investment in B.C.’s enforcement ability, but Mr. Walker said that would bear fruit in other areas like cracking down on people and businesses “bending the rules” with other taxes.
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people → require → taxes
Which ridings do the Greens have a shot at and who would come in second place in those ridings?
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who → have → ridings
They have a real shot to keep the two they won in the last election: West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, which they won by just 676 votes over the Conservative candidate, and Green Party Leader Emily Lowan’s riding of Saanich North and the Islands, where they beat runner-up New Democrat candidate in last time.
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they → have → time
Looking past the polls
Is Eby’s goose cooked?
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goose → look → polls
Even if the best case scenario plays out for him, how does the NDP continue on with him?
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NDP → play → him
Well, I’d certainly say he’s in a pot of boiling water and it’s getting hotter by the day.
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it → say → day
Look, people are not in a great mood out there.
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people → look → mood
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
