The situation in Iran is dangerously escalating – but whatever you do, don’t call it a war | Arwa Mahdawi

The Guardian · collected 2026-09-15 · by Arwa Mahdawi
Read the original at The Guardian ↗

Summary

Columnist Arwa Mahdawi discusses the U.S.'s involvement in Iran, which has escalated recently but is not officially labeled as war by government officials. Despite this, significant military actions have occurred, such as missile strikes causing civilian casualties, including the death of 150 people, mostly children, and a recent bombing that killed four people, one being a child. The article highlights inconsistencies in how these events are characterized by U.S. officials compared to their impact on the ground, questioning whether this conflict should be considered a war given its significant human and financial costs.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-15, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
44
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
18%
8 of 44 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject
Correction & hedging signals
59.9
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

In recent days, tensions in Iran have escalated dangerously, prompting questions about the nature of the conflict. Despite this, US President Donald Trump, who vowed not to send Americans into "stupid foreign wars," maintains that what's happening in Iran is not a war. Government officials like JD Vance support this stance by arguing there’s no active shooting and thus no war. However, these claims are undermined by recent US military actions such as missile strikes on Iranian civilian targets, including a wedding where at least four people were killed and an elementary school massacre in March that left 150 dead, mostly children. These events raise serious questions about the legality and morality of US actions in Iran, with critics suggesting they could be classified as war crimes.

Written for “Iran Situation Escalating” on 2026-09-17, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.65 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.65 for article 10133 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-15

Story

📰 Iran Situation Escalating
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 18% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
TIME
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 25% hedged 11 of 44 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A discusses Trump's comments about ending the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran immediately after midterm elections, while Article B critiques how the situation in Iran is escalating but argues it shouldn't be called a war.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 51 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different aspects of the Iran-US situation without clearly referring to the exact same incident or timeframe.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles discuss different aspects of the situation regarding the US and Iran, with Article A focusing on the Republican midterm convention and how little attention was given to the conflict in Iran, while Article B discusses the reluctance to label the ongoing conflict as a war.”
New York Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 2 of 19 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss related events and perspectives on the Iran situation but describe different moments in time with distinct statements from JD Vance.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 12% hedged 4 of 33 📰 publisher trust 96
“The articles discuss different aspects of the Iran situation under Trump's presidency and do not refer to the same specific incident or time.”
ABC News (US)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 94
“The articles discuss similar themes of escalating tensions with Iran but reference different sources and contexts.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 1 of 6 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A reports on President Trump's statement about being open to talks with Iran, while Article B discusses a broader perspective on the situation in Iran and criticizes the characterization of it as a war.”
The Intercept
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 16% hedged 16 of 101 📰 publisher trust 97
“The articles discuss the situation in Iran but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence. ARTICLE A focuses on the strain and potential 'breakdown' of the U.S. military due to ongoing operations, while ARTICLE B discusses whether the conflict can be accurately described as a war.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 21 📰 publisher trust 96
“The articles discuss different aspects of the situation in Iran and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 12% hedged 5 of 40 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A discusses the broader context and rhetoric surrounding the conflict in Iran, while Article B reports on a specific vote by the House of Representatives to end the war.”

Publisher

The Guardian · 337 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)
2026-09-07
Former Louisiana mayor completes 90-day jail term for raping 16-year-old boy

Who wrote this

Arwa Mahdawi
3 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “I will not send you to fight and die in stupid foreign wars that never end,” Donald Trump promised a crowd in Pennsylvania in 2024.
🔮 “There’s not a parent in America, no matter where you live, that would want their school to change and call their child by a different name and not expect to be told about that.
🔮 But you might not be familiar with many of his recent shocking comments, because they haven’t been widely covered by much of the US media.
Also by Arwa Mahdawi
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

American Iran Iranian Pennsylvania the New York Times

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 7× Congress ORG · 5× Iran GPE · 4× Vance PERSON · 3× American NORP · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Iranian NORP · 1× JD Vance PERSON · 1× Pennsylvania GPE · 1× the New York Times ORG · 1×

Narrative

But, as the historian and foreign relations expert Fredrik Logevall noted in an interview with the Harvard Kennedy School: “What’s extraordinary about President Trump in the current context is that he has not really bothered to even consult with Congress, never mind seek the approval of Congress.”
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15
🔮 “I will not send you to fight and die in stupid foreign wars that never end,” Donald Trump promised a crowd in Pennsylvania in 2024.

Claims (44 extracted, 8 hedged)

“I will not send you to fight and die in stupid foreign wars that never end,” Donald Trump promised a crowd in Pennsylvania in 2024. asserted
Trump → send → 2024
While the disastrous conflict in Iran, which has escalated in recent days, may make it seem like the president has reneged on that promise, that’s inaccurate. uncertain
that → escalate → promise
It would be wrong to say that the president has dragged the US into yet another disastrous forever war in the Middle East because, as government officials keep insisting, what’s happening in Iran isn’t actually a war. asserted
happening → say → Iran
“I wouldn’t call it a war,” JD Vance told reporters early this month, for example, after being asked whether the fighting in Iran might be over by the November midterms. uncertain
fighting → call → midterms
Earlier this month, a US missile strike hit a wedding at a private home in southern Iran, killing at least four people, including a four-year-old child and a 16-year-old. asserted
strike → hit → child
That’s fairly restrained compared to the massacre in March when a US precision-guided missile hit an elementary school in Iran, killing 150 people, including 120 children, but it’s still something I would personally file under “possible war crimes”. asserted
I → ’ → crimes
But not only does the Trump administration keep insisting this isn’t a real war, they’re also adamant there aren’t any real crimes being committed: the vice-president would like to stress that you shouldn’t believe your eyes or ears when it comes to the civilian deaths being reported. asserted
it → keep → deaths
Despite a weapons expert and a visual analysis by the New York Times concluding that the bomb that hit the wedding party in a residential area of the country was American, Vance has a hunch the whole thing might have been made up by some untrustworthy brown people. uncertain
thing → conclude → people
“The Iranian state media has not been a very good scribe about what’s happened in the conflict thus far,” Vance said at that same press briefing, in relation to the wedding massacre. asserted
Vance → happen → massacre
“So I’m extremely skeptical of this. asserted
I → ’m → this
The vice-president may be skeptical, but I’m confused. uncertain
I → ’m → ?
Trump himself has called it a war on several occasions. asserted
Trump → call → occasions
Last Wednesday, for example, he said: “The war is going to end immediately after the election.” asserted
war → say → election
However, rather confusing matters, he also recently suggested he agreed with Vance that it wasn’t a full-fledged war. uncertain
it → confuse → Vance
“I call it a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us,” Trump said last month. asserted
Trump → call → us
Those are some very expensive potatoes: the not-a-war already has a price tag of tens of billions. asserted
war → have → billions
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has roughly estimated that it has cost the typical US household $1,200. asserted
it → estimate → 1,200
And then of course there’s the human cost: the thousands of lives that have been lost. asserted
that → ’ → lives
What we call this “military conflict” isn’t just semantics, it matters greatly. asserted
it → call → What
Not least because the constitution is very clear that a president can’t unilaterally start an official war on a whim; only Congress has the power to declare a war. asserted
Congress → start → war
Trump isn’t the first president to launch major military action without going to Congress for a declaration: Harry Truman classified the Korean conflict as a “police action” to bypass Congress and presidents since have engaged in similar semantic sleights-of-hand. asserted
classified → launch → hand
But, as the historian and foreign relations expert Fredrik Logevall noted in an interview with the Harvard Kennedy School: “What’s extraordinary about President Trump in the current context is that he has not really bothered to even consult with Congress, never mind seek the approval of Congress.” asserted
he → note → Congress
In other words, he’s acting like a dictator. asserted
he → act → dictator
Trump, to be fair, has been clear that he’s exploiting the Truman Playbook. asserted
he → exploit → Playbook
“I won’t use the word ‘war’ because they say if you use the word ‘war,’ that’s maybe not a good thing to do,” Trump said at a fundraising dinner in March. asserted
Trump → use → March
“They don’t like the word ‘war’ because you’re supposed to get approval. asserted
you → like → approval
So, I’ll use the word ‘military operation’, which is really what it is. asserted
it → use → word
It’s a military decimation.” asserted
It → ’ → ?
Avoiding a formal declaration of war might also help the US government bypass certain “wartime” obligations to its service members and their families. uncertain
government → avoid → members
Libby Klinner, the widow of an airman killed in combat operations against Iran in March, recently posted on Instagram that she wasn’t receiving certain benefits because the US wasn’t technically at war. asserted
US → kill → war
“The Air Force recently told me that because we haven’t officially declared war, my kids and I aren’t eligible for some benefits,” Klinner wrote. asserted
Klinner → tell → benefits
“So not only was my husband killed in a war he never wanted to participate in, but now the benefits we’re left with are being dictated by semantics and public perceptions.” asserted
we → kill → semantics
After this post went viral, it seems the government has stepped in smooth things over. asserted
government → go → things
Vance recently said the administration would ensure Klinner receives “what she is entitled to.” asserted
she → say → what
He added: “We will certainly work that on the back end.” asserted
We → add → end
The government might be able to fix Klinner’s benefits, but they’re going to have a hard time remedying the economic and political damage this not-a-war is inflicting. uncertain
war → fix → damage
Trump’s popularity is plummeting, and a majority of Americans are fed up with this “small potatoes” conflict that has been going on for six months and making everyday life more dangerous and expensive. asserted
life → plummet → months
According to an estimate from Brown University last week, the conflict has cost Americans $100bn in extra energy costs. uncertain
conflict → accord → costs
That bill is going up by $1m every two minutes. asserted
bill → go → m
This week oil prices also climbed over $100 a barrel for the first time since July. asserted
prices → climb → July
…and 4 more, not listed.
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