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“But FLIPR has the race as a pure toss-up, and its projected D +0.1 margin makes it the closest House race in our Deluxe forecast.”

“The GOP-commissioned polls3 imply a Senate map that is at best a toss-up for Republicans, but really leaning D, along with deep prospective gains for Democrats in the House and bad results for Republicans in swing-state governorships.”

“In the South Carolina Senate race, our polling average shows Republican Darline Graham ahead by only 2.6 points, for instance.”

“House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial races on the ballot this November, as well as the overall likelihood of each party controlling each chamber and all kinds of other details.1 The model performed quite well in 2018 after the code was basically…”

“It also calculates a “bottom-up” estimate of what polls of individual Senate and House races imply about the national picture.10 For example, say that the generic ballot has Democrats up by 8 points, but polling of key races for Congress is more consistent…”