The article is an open thread where users can post about anything, ask questions, or discuss various topics related to ACX (Accelerated Climate Science). The section on comments of the week features discussions with FutureSearch founder Dan Schwarz and Frikgeek on forecasting and chess engine handicapping. There are also updates on a successfully defeated anti-animal-welfare law, a charity's incubation round for farmed animal welfare, and a $250K bet won by the author on the COVID-19 origins theory. Additionally, there is new information released about AI hacking incidents at OpenAI and Meta.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-20,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Boston ACX meetup group will be having their annual voter-guide-making meeting on Sunday, August 16. The group has been working to create voter guides for local elections, helping people make informed decisions at the ballot box. This comes after a successful effort in opposing the "Save Our Bacon Act", an anti-animal-welfare law that was defeated thanks to public opposition. Charity Entrepreneurship is also launching an incubation round dedicated to farmed animal welfare charities, which they claim is a good time to start one due to expected new funding opportunities.
Written for “Open Thread 446” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political
question, so it has no leaning score. That is an
answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly
or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it
anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political
position.
No political leaning scored for article 996 · logged 2026-08-25
Commentary. The three signals behind a trust
score all measure a newsroom's record with its own reporting, so they
are not computed for this source.
How trust is scored.
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful
reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.
Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.
asserted
you → post → questions
ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world.
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ACX → have → world
Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here.
asserted
you → subscribe → ?
1: Comments of the week: FutureSearch founder Dan Schwarz on what the correlation between accuracy and time horizon tells us about the ceiling on forecasting, and Frikgeek on chess engine handicapping.
2:
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correlation → tell → handicapping
Thanks to everyone who wrote or called your representatives to oppose the “Save Our Bacon Act” (anti-animal-welfare law).
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who → write → Act
The bill was successfully defeated.
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bill → defeat → ?
3: I continue to accept and signal-boost voter guides from local ACX meetups.
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I → continue → meetups
The Boston meetup group will be having their annual voter-guide-making meeting this Sunday, August 16.
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group → have → meeting
Charity Entrepreneurship, the self-proclaimed “Y Combinator for charities”, has asked me to signal-boost their latest incubation round, dedicated entirely to farmed animal welfare.
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Entrepreneurship → proclaim → welfare
They say it’s the “best time ever” to start an animal welfare charity (partly because of an expected tsunami of new funding), and that you don’t need any animal charity experience (and maybe “outsiders are especially valuable”).
asserted
outsiders → say → experience
Costs are fully covered (stipends to cover cost of living; reimbursement for travel to London and SF; seed funding available at the end).
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Costs → cover → end
Applications close soon: learn more here.
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Applications → close → more
Two years ago, I wrote some pieces (1, 2) supporting a natural origins theory of COVID.
asserted
I → write → COVID
I agreed to a bet with lab leak proponent(s), and although some of you were curious, I didn’t reveal the details because I didn’t want to bias resolution.
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I → agree → resolution
I can now reveal that the bet was about whether whatever new evidence came out over the ensuing two years would shift polls of superforecasters (who previously leaned natural origins) to favor lab leak.
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who → reveal → leak
The latest such poll came out recently, and they continued to favor natural origins at about the same rate as two years ago.
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they → come → rate
I won $250K.
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I → win → 250K.
Peter Miller also participated and won a similar amount.
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Miller → participate → amount
Our counterparty/counterparties prefer to remain anonymous.
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counterparties → prefer → ?
Although of course I’m happy to have won, I’ll admit that my bet was only partly on the merits of the COVID origins argument, and at least as much on the thesis that new and earth-shakingly decisive evidence on controversial events rarely comes out in the specific interval of 4-6 years after the event happened, and that people rarely change their mind for anything less than earth-shakingly decisive evidence.
asserted
people → ’m → evidence
Everyone involved in the bet conducted themselves honorably, and I’m grateful to everyone who helped make it happen; if you were involved and forgot to respond to my email asking for permission to list your name, reply now and I’ll edit it in here.
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I → involve → it
new information released from OpenAI reveals that their rogue AIs created a secret message board to coordinate hacks among themselves.
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AIs → release → themselves
And Meta reports one of its AIs also went rogue and hacked a third-party company; Moonshot (Kimi) reports a sandbox escape.
asserted
Moonshot → report → escape
