Chocolate faces more climate shocks as study highlights risk of extreme rainfall
That's on top of many other threats to cocoa production
As stores around the country trot out hyper-bright boxes of bite-sized chocolate for Halloween, a new peer-reviewed study says there's an underappreciated threat that cocoa production faces.
asserted
production → face → that
"People have tended to focus on heat and drought as the main climate risks, and those do matter," said Anna Lea Albright, who led this research as an environmental fellow at Harvard University.
asserted
who → tend → University
"But what we found is that the strongest weather risk to cocoa is actually heavy rainfall."
Cocoa prices have shot up in recent years and consumers have felt it.
asserted
consumers → find → it
Today, a tonne of cocoa hovers around $6,000 US, from a relatively long period of trading around $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne since 2014.
asserted
tonne → hover → 2014
In 2024, the price shot up to over $12,000 US.
asserted
price → shoot → US
That was triggered by multiple factors including heavy flooding in West Africa, where more than two million farmers help make it the world's biggest cocoa-growing region.
asserted
it → trigger → Africa
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa, which works with thousands of farmers in a mountainous region of Ghana, says the rainfall has been a real challenge this year.
asserted
rainfall → work → Ghana
"Just imagine, you manage your whole crop, then it's raining so much and you can't harvest because the rains are just too much," Agyare told CBC News from London, England.
asserted
Agyare → imagine → London
But even as climate change, driven by humanity's burning of fossil fuels, is expected to make extreme rainfall events worse, the authors say there are ways to mitigate the impact on this crop that billions of people enjoy.
asserted
billions → drive → people
The risks of rain
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focused on Ghana, the world's second largest producer of cocoa.
asserted
study → publish → cocoa
Using newly available district-level data on production, the authors compared that to rainfall and temperature data.
asserted
authors → use → data
"When we did that pairing, extreme rainfall during flowering stood out as limiting yields, much more so than temperature during those months," Albright told CBC News from Paris.
asserted
Albright → do → Paris
While cocoa trees need this moisture during the wet season, too much of it can damage the sensitive flowers and young pods.
asserted
much → need → flowers
Wet conditions, Albright says, can also lead to more fungal infections — such as black pod disease — that are spread by splashing rain.
asserted
that → say → rain
The connection between extreme rain and lower yields was also found when the team looked at other cocoa-producing countries, Ecuador and Indonesia.
asserted
team → find → countries
The research also found a clear climate signal, as warmer air holds more moisture.
asserted
air → find → moisture
"In the satellite record, in rain gauges, we see [evidence] over the past few decades that the heaviest rain events during the wet season are indeed becoming more intense," Albright said.
asserted
Albright → see → season
It's worth noting that in West Africa, El Niño typically reduces the risk of extreme rain but raises the chance of drought, which the region is expecting.
asserted
region → note → which
"Now there is a dry period — when they need the rain, there is no rain," Agyare said.
asserted
Agyare → be → rain
Losing ground
While underappreciated, extreme rainfall's impact on crops isn't a new danger.
asserted
impact → lose → crops
The study also points out non-climactic risks like aging trees and illegal gold mining, which the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says is part of multiple threats to cocoa production.
asserted
Organization → point → production
Still, Sophia Carodenuto, environmental governance expert and associate professor at the University of Victoria, appreciates the study's findings, but says the key question remains about what farmers can do about it.
asserted
farmers → appreciate → it
"You cannot stop rain, especially extreme rainfall," Carodenuto said, acknowledging the authors hinted at potential interventions involving fungicide and better drainage to mitigate spread of fungal diseases.
asserted
authors → stop → diseases
For Agyare, the solution requires serious infrastructure investment.
asserted
solution → require → investment
"For some areas that we work with, once it rains, the farmers are trapped in that area," he said.
asserted
he → work → area
"These are kids that can't go to school.
asserted
that → go → school
These are families that are stuck.
asserted
that → stick → ?
Many farmers also don't have reservoirs to save some of that rainwater for later use.
asserted
farmers → have → use
But a major issue, Agyare says, is a system that puts too much work on the farmer.
asserted
that → say → farmer
"In Ghana, they have two issues.
asserted
they → have → issues
The farmers farm, then they do all the post-harvest themselves," he said, suggesting that splitting the post-harvest duties with other labourers would allow farmers to focus on growing only.
asserted
farmers → farm → growing
This would allow for collection and processing to be done in a centralized area, avoiding the losses that come from farmers drying their beans on the land and losing them during torrential rains.
asserted
that → allow → rains
These climate shocks, experts say, are making the job of cocoa farming unattractive in West Africa, and a lot harder.
asserted
job → say → Africa
"I think smallholder farmers are going to be a thing of the past," Agyare said, adding that children don't want to get into what their parents are doing and prefer to find opportunities in the cities.
asserted
parents → think → cities
Carodenuto questions whether adapting to the changing climate will eventually be too much, forcing people out of the job.
asserted
adapting → question → job
That will add to the price volatility, which won't just edge out farmers, but push chocolate producers to ditch cocoa in chocolate altogether.
asserted
which → add → chocolate
"It's been [a] completely crazy spike in price that I think was a major instigator for a lot of the innovation around cocoa-free chocolate," she told CBC News from Graz, Austria, adding that alternative chocolate is being promoted as less vulnerable, with a more resilient supply chain.
asserted
chocolate → think → chain
Earlier this year, the world's largest food company, Nestlé, entered the space, partnering with a German cocoa-free chocolate startup.
asserted
company → enter → startup
That company makes ChoViva, an alternative that uses sunflower seeds, which Carodenuto says is attractive in terms of supply chain control because it's grown in Europe.
asserted
it → make → Europe
Even a significant rise in price, she says, won't result in a better future for the people who grow and harvest cocoa.
asserted
who → say → cocoa
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
