Supreme Court Refuses to Block Lower-Court Ruling Against Trump's Mail-in Ballot Executive Order

Reason · collected 2026-09-15 · by Ilya Somin
Read the original at Reason ↗

Summary

The Supreme Court, in a 7-2 decision, declined to block a lower-court ruling against the Postal Service's policy implementing Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at restricting mail-in voting. Justice Brett Kavanaugh agreed with the majority but added that state election officials needed more time to adapt to the new rules before upcoming elections. Justices Alito and Thomas dissented, arguing that the USPS has the authority under existing statutes to implement such policies despite concerns about federalism and separation of powers.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-15, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
15
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
7%
1 of 15 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject
Correction & hedging signals
92.4
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
unclustered
not grouped into a story yet
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.65 Confidence high 2 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning score -0.65 for article 9807 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-15

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Guardian · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles describe different court rulings on Trump's bid to restrict mail-in voting: one from a US appeals court and another from the Supreme Court.”
Los Angeles Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 22% hedged 7 of 32 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A discusses warnings by California and other states to the Supreme Court about potential chaos if USPS mail ballot rules stand, while Article B reports on a 7-2 decision by the Supreme Court refusing to block a lower-court ruling against Trump's executive order. These are different stages of the same broader issue but describe separate events.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 13% hedged 7 of 52 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses Trump's general rhetoric and efforts to restrict mail-in voting, while Article B reports on a specific Supreme Court decision regarding a lower-court ruling against Trump's executive order.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 40% hedged 2 of 5 📰 publisher trust 94
“The articles describe related rulings but different specific events: one is about a second federal judge blocking Trump's mail-in voting restrictions, while the other is about the Supreme Court refusing to block a lower-court ruling against it.”
Reason · 0.90 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 13% hedged 3 of 23 📰 publisher trust 92
“The articles refer to different court actions: a First Circuit decision and a Supreme Court ruling.”

Publisher

Reason · 164 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)
2026-09-05
Lawyers' Responsibility for Hallucinations in Briefs That They Sign

Who wrote this

Ilya Somin
6 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 Other contributors include prominent scholars and commentators, such as VC co-blogger Jonathan Adler (William and Mary), Randall Kennedy (Harvard), Samuel Moyn (Yale), Andrew McCarthy (National Review), Molly Reynolds (Brookings Institution), Rick Hasen, John McGinnis (Northwestern), Julia Azari, Aziz Huq (Chicago), Robert George (Princeton), and many more.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · New Book on "Democracy's Challenges: 100 Ideas"
🔮 Here's a summary of our brief, which I prepared for the Cato website (which will also post the brief soon):
2026-09-14 · assertive framing · Our New Amicus Brief in the Section 301 Tariff Case
🔮 In this post, I will explain how the legal case against these actions is bolstered by the major questions and nondelegation doctrines.
🔮 It requires action by the States' "chief election official[s]" and its policy justification is "protect[ing] the integrity of federal elections…."To the extent that appellants argue that we should read statutes authorizing the Postal Service to issue general postal regulations as supplying the necessary congressional authorization for the Final Rule, see 39 U.S.C. § 401(2) (authorizing USPS to make "such rules and regulations, not inconsistent with this title, as may be necessary in the execution of its functions"); id. § 401(10) (authorizing USPS to exercise "all other powers incidental, necessary, or appropriate to the carrying on of its functions or the exercise of its specific powers"); id. § 404(a)(1) (conferring on USPS the power "to provide for the collection, handling, transportation, delivery, forwarding, returning, and holding of mail, and for the disposition of undeliverable mail")
🔮 I expect there will be legal challenges to these tariffs, and those challenges will deserve to prevail.
More on this subject from Ilya Somin
All 6 articles by Ilya Somin →

Topics

Congress USPS the First Circuit the Postal Service's the Supreme Court

Subjects

USPS ORG · 4× Trump PERSON · 3× Congress ORG · 2× the First Circuit ORG · 2× the Postal Service's ORG · 2× Brett Kavanaugh PERSON · 1× Donald Trump's PERSON · 1× First Circuit ORG · 1× the District Court's ORG · 1× the Supreme Court ORG · 1×

Narrative

In a concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh states that he thinks "there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service's statutory authority," but that the district court was still right to block it, under the Administrative Procedure Act "because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections."
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15

Claims (15 extracted, 1 hedged)

Earlier tonight, the Supreme Court, in a 7-2 ruling, refused to stay a lower-court decision blocking the Postal Service's policy implementing Donald Trump's executive order intended to curb mail-in voting. asserted
Court → refuse → voting
I have previously written about the First Circuit ruling in this case, and about how Trump's order is a blatant assault on federalism and separation of powers. asserted
order → write → powers
As is often the case with "shadow docket" decisions, the majority opinion offers almost no analysis. asserted
opinion → offer → analysis
But they do state that "[t]he Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction [against the USPS policy]." asserted
Government → state → policy
That indicates they believe that Trump's policy is indeed illegal, likely for reasons similar to those outlined by the district court and the First Circuit. asserted
policy → indicate → court
In a concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh states that he thinks "there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service's statutory authority," but that the district court was still right to block it, under the Administrative Procedure Act "because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections." asserted
officials → concur → elections
In a dissent joined by Justice Thomas, Justice Samuel Alito argues that the policy is within the authority of the USPS, but bases it on statutes that nowhere mention altering mail-in ballot election rules, but only authorize USPS to make rules for the collection and delivery of the mail. asserted
that → join → mail
Alito largely ignores the massive federalism and separation of powers issues arising from conflating the latter with the former. asserted
Alito → ignore → former
In addition, as the district court and the First Circuit noted, twisting this language into a sweeping power to override state mail-in ballot rules raises serious "major questions doctrine" issues. asserted
twisting → note → issues
As the District Court noted, Congress must speak clearly when delegating a "highly consequential power" to the executive, and the power to rewrite state election rules is pretty obviously highly consequential. asserted
power → note → rules
and, to put it mildly, the statutes granting authority to the USPS come nowhere near clearly giving it such power. asserted
statutes → put → power
Indeed, they don't even mention voting rules. asserted
they → mention → rules
To put it a different way, inferring a power to regulate mail-in voting from a power to make rules necessary for the delivery of the mail is a classic example what Justice Antonin Scalia famously called "hid[ing] elephants in mouseholes," warning courts to avoid assuming Congress did that. asserted
Congress → put → that
The Trump administration claims there is a truly enormous elephant in a very tiny mousehole here. uncertain
administration → claim → mousehole
The Court was right to reject that position. asserted
Court → reject → position
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