Air pollution spiked after the Trump administration stopped embassy monitoring
Growing up in Shanghai in the early 1990s, Eric Zou remembers the air.
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Zou → spike → air
"I lived a couple of miles next to a chemical plant and it was just really bad, really foggy," he says.
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he → live → plant
"It's the middle of the day, but you can't see the sun."
Intensive industrial activity blanketed many cities in China during the 1990s and 2000s with extremely hazardous air.
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activity → see → air
But Zou, now an environmental economist at the University of Michigan, says that many people didn't really understand this smog as air pollution, or something that could harm them.
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that → say → them
"When you have a big smog event, people often talk about that as fog, they think it was just like bad weather," says Zou.
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Zou → have → weather
One big key to changing that sentiment, he says, was information initially provided by the United States.
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he → change → States
In 2008, U.S. officials installed an air quality monitor on the embassy in Beijing and began making the information public.
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information → instal → Beijing
Over time, that helped spur demand for cleaner air, says Zou.
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Zou → spur → air
"Once you have pollution information, it tends to be that it actually helps people to realize, 'Oh, I actually value air quality.'
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I → have → quality
Since 2008, the State Department's monitoring initiative has expanded to more than 80 embassies and consulates.
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initiative → expand → embassies
Research suggests that monitoring contributed to measurable improvements in air quality, especially across many low- and middle-income countries with limited monitoring systems of their own.
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monitoring → suggest → own
But in March 2025, the Trump administration shuttered that program, citing monetary costs.
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administration → shutter → costs
Research out this week suggests the move had health costs for the people living in those countries.
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move → suggest → countries
Over the several months following the shutdown, air pollution levels measured via satellite increased by 24-33%, researchers reported Monday in the journal PNAS.
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researchers → follow → journal
The State Department declined to comment on the study itself.
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Department → decline → study
In a statement to NPR, it did say the State Department is in the process of restoring public reporting of air quality monitoring data, but did not give a timeframe for when it would resume.
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it → say → timeframe
And it's a real pity," says Andrea La Nauze, an environmental economist at Deakin University in Australia who has researched the benefits of the program but wasn't involved in this study.
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who → say → study
The program "led to sustained improvements in air quality that were continuing to increase after 10 years," she says.
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she → lead → years
She says this new research suggests those improvements aren't guaranteed if monitoring stops.
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monitoring → say → ?
Measuring the consequences of not measuring
When Zoey Yiyuan Zhou first heard the news that the Trump administration was shuttering the embassy air quality monitoring, it struck her as a research opportunity.
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it → measure → opportunity
"It's such a rare case to study this drawback," says the Columbia University climate researcher.
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researcher → study → drawback
While there's ample evidence of the benefits of increased monitoring, she says there aren't many examples of a sudden falloff of surveillance.
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she → be → surveillance
Zhou and her colleagues decided to compare air pollution levels before and after monitoring ceased across 46 cities.
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monitoring → decide → cities
Since they didn't have on-the-ground measures of air quality for the latter part of that comparison, they used satellite data for both.
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they → have → both
The team found no significant trends in air pollution over the 300 days preceding the end of U.S. reporting.
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team → find → reporting
But about three to four months after reporting ended, pollution had gone up, on average by about 30%.
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pollution → end → %
Satellite data isn't a perfect substitute for monitors that can measure on-the-ground pollution.
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that → measure → pollution
The researchers estimate their satellite measurements translate to about a 4% increase in PM2.5 — the small suspended particles that can enter the lungs and bloodstream and cause health problems.
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that → estimate → problems
"That magnitude is certainly concerning," says La Nauze.
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Nauze → say → ?
"Particulate matter is a serious and dangerous thing, and being exposed to it is not good.
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exposed → expose → it
"
The increase was highest in Southeast Asian cities, including Manila in the Philippines, Rangoon in Myanmar and Vientiane in Laos, says Zhou.
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Zhou → include → Laos
Pollution also spiked more in cities with fewer monitoring alternatives.
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Pollution → spike → alternatives
The study can't say why pollution increased after monitoring stopped.
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monitoring → say → ?
For countries with nonexistent or nascent monitoring programs, U.S. data may have prompted more regulatory action, says Zou.
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Zou → prompt → action
"Maybe the U.S. Embassy was a really strong force in terms of a third-party auditing mechanism, and once that's removed, people are like 'Now I can just pollute, right?'
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I → remove → mechanism
In many industries, it costs money to cut down on pollution, says Zhou.
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Zhou → cost → pollution
When monitoring stops, companies may see it as an opportunity to cut those costs.
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companies → stop → costs
But the researchers did find some potentially hopeful news.
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researchers → find → news
Pollution levels seemed to go back down somewhat after peaking about three or four months after monitoring stopped.
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monitoring → seem → ?
It's difficult to say why this decrease happened, Zhou says, or whether the trend will continue.
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trend → say → ?
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
