Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Baio, A. (2026, October 21). Trump’s approval rating drops to 36% two weeks before midterms, poll finds. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/trump-approval-rating-midterms-poll

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-10-21 · by Ariana Baio

Quick Summary

Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to 36% according to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted just two weeks before the midterm elections, marking his lowest recorded approval since the start of the survey. The poll surveyed approximately 3,494 likely voters and found that 59% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, with significant dissatisfaction over economic issues like gas prices (73% disapproval), cost of living (69%), and the economy (64%). Additionally, 65% disapproved of his handling of the Iran war. These findings suggest a challenging electoral landscape for Republicans as Democrats capitalize on voter concerns about rising costs and inflation to attract independent voters.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-21, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 21, 2026, President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to 36% according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, marking his lowest recorded approval rating ahead of the midterm elections. The survey, which polled approximately 3,494 likely voters, showed that 59% disapproved of his job performance and 52% planned to vote for Democratic candidates in the upcoming election. Voters expressed frustration with Trump's handling of economic issues, rising gas prices, and the war in Iran, with approval ratings on these issues at 64%, 73%, and 65% disapproval respectively. Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage over Republicans in congressional preferences, suggesting a strong possibility that Democrats may reclaim control of Congress in the midterms.

Written for “Trump's Approval Rating Drops” on 2026-10-22, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump's Approval Rating Drops
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Washington Examiner · 0.93 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 33% hedged 1 of 3 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles report on the same specific New York Times/Siena poll released on the same date, showing President Trump's approval rating at a new low of 36% ahead of the midterm elections.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 10% hedged 5 of 51 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles report on different polls conducted at different times, covering similar but distinct aspects of President Trump's approval rating.”
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 6 of 61 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss different aspects of Trump's declining approval ratings and his challenges in the midterms but describe distinct events occurring on different dates.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 48 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Donald Trump's declining popularity but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 3 of 55 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles describe different polls conducted at different times, although both relate to public sentiment towards President Donald Trump.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 2 of 22 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe similar but different polls conducted at different times, not the same specific occurrence.”
Al Jazeera · 0.90 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 33% hedged 2 of 6 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles report different approval ratings at distinct points in time, suggesting they cover separate polls rather than the exact same incident.”
Inside Trump’s job approval crisis different event · 70%
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 30 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss different polls conducted at different times, showing varying approval ratings for President Trump.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 41% hedged 16 of 39 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles report on similar events but different polls conducted at different times, not the exact same occurrence.”
ABC News (US)
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 2% hedged 2 of 86 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles report on different polls conducted by ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos and New York Times/Siena College, with slight differences in timing and focus.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
14
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 14 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-21 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 2295 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Ariana Baio
32 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
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🔮 The notice said law enforcement officials were working to intercept additional mail, but it is possible some could reach their destination.
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🔮 Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the leader of the New York City council have agreed to ban horse-drawn carriages from the city, a popular tourist attraction that has faced widespread scrutiny.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · New York City moves to ban horse-drawn carriages
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Also by Ariana Baio
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 32 articles by Ariana Baio →

Topics

Democratic Democrats Iran Republicans the New York Times/Siena College

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 6× Iran GPE · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Democrats NORP · 2× the New York Times/Siena College ORG · 2× Congress ORG · 1× Donald Trump’s PERSON · 1× Maga PERSON · 1× Republican NORP · 1× Republicans NORP · 1×

Narrative

Donald Trump’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections, the lowest recorded in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College, with most respondents expressing frustration over his handling of the US economy, cost of living and Iran war.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-21

Claims (14 extracted, 0 hedged)

Donald Trump’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections, the lowest recorded in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College, with most respondents expressing frustration over his handling of the US economy, cost of living and Iran war. asserted
respondents → sink → living
In an October survey of approximately 3,494 likely voters, 59% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job, and 52% said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election. asserted
they → say → election
Much of the disapproval toward the US president was associated with frustrations over Trump’s handling of economic and cost-of-living-related issues. asserted
Much → associate → issues
On gas prices, 73% of registered voters said they disapproved; on the cost of living, 69% said they disapproved, and on the economy, 64% said they disapproved. asserted
they → register → economy
Approximately 65% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, which has dragged on for nearly eight months and pushed gas and oil prices up. asserted
which → say → prices
The new polling numbers paint a gloomy picture for Trump and Republicans, who have embarked on an uphill battle to defeat Democrats in the upcoming midterms to maintain their majority control in Congress. asserted
who → paint → Congress
Trump, whose name recognition has largely helped Republican candidates in past elections, has been on the road campaigning for Maga-aligned candidates. asserted
recognition → help → candidates
However, some candidates have sought to distance themselves from the president, who has become increasingly unpopular over his economic policies. asserted
who → seek → policies
In 2024, Trump promised to lower everyday costs for Americans, keep inflation low and to keep the US from starting more wars abroad. asserted
Trump → promise → wars
But as of 21 October, gas prices were more than $4.25 a gallon, inflation increased to 3.7% last month and the president’s war with Iran remained steady. asserted
war → increase → Iran
Between September and October, the US president’s approval rating decreased by two percentage points in the New York Times/Siena College polls. asserted
rating → decrease → polls
Democratic candidates, meanwhile, have seized on the cost-of-living issues to appeal to independents and undecided voters, promising to rein in the president’s policies that have pushed costs up, such as tariffs. asserted
that → seize → tariffs
While polling from the New York Times/Siena College indicates Democrats have the upper hand headed into next month’s election, the party is still fighting against a massive financial war chest in competitive races in Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska and Iowa. asserted
party → indicate → Texas
The Guardian has asked the White House for comment. asserted
Guardian → ask → comment
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