Europe woke up last Friday to another belligerent outburst from Donald Trump – this time berating Ukraine’s wartime leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy again.
asserted
Europe → wake → leader
Just a few days after his diesel deal with the Kremlin, the US president said Zelenskyy was more difficult to deal with than Vladimir Putin and blamed Ukraine’s leader for rocketing oil prices – without any reference to the impact of his own war on Iran.
asserted
Zelenskyy → say → Iran
When Zelenskyy walked into the multi-coloured summit room of the European Council headquarters in Brussels that Friday morning, the EU’s 27 leaders burst into applause, getting to their feet to offer big hugs and brisk handshakes.
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leaders → walk → hugs
European Council president António Costa told Zelenskyy and the media: “This is no time to withdraw the support to Ukraine,” calling instead for increased pressure on Russia.
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This → tell → Russia
Zelenskyy was thankful, pointedly saying he was happy to have “huge support” from “real leaders”.
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he → say → leaders
As US support crumbles, Europe seems to be stepping up.
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Europe → crumble → ?
According to the Kiel Institut’s Ukraine Support Tracker, Europe – including non-EU countries such as the UK and Norway – has spent €236bn supporting Ukraine from 2022 to April 2026, compared with a US outlay of €115bn.
uncertain
Europe → accord → 115bn
While Trump is weakening sanctions, Europe is promising more.
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Europe → weaken → more
The EU has passed 21 rounds of sanctions against Russia and last year agreed to raise a €90bn loan for Ukraine – an unprecedented sum for a non-member state.
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EU → pass → state
Meanwhile the EU has opened accession negotiations with Kyiv and given shelter to 4.4million Ukrainian refugees.
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EU → open → refugees
Behind the declarations of Europe’s enduring support, the outlook is more complex and less encouraging for Ukraine, as it approaches its fifth winter since the launch of Russia’s all-out invasion.
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it → endure → invasion
First, Europe is not able to replace US military dominance in areas such as intelligence.
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Europe → replace → intelligence
This was brutally exposed by the disruption to the US SpaceX technologies that Ukraine uses in frontline drone operations and air-defences protecting civilians from Russian air attacks.
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Ukraine → expose → attacks
Zelenskyy said the US had intentionally throttled its Starlink satellite internet access, a charge that senior figures in the Trump administration have denied.
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figures → say → administration
Ukraine also depends on US-made Patriot interceptors capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.
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Ukraine → depend → missiles
Deepening the spat, Zelenskyy this week accused the Trump administration of preventing European countries from passing on their Patriot stocks to Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy → deepen → Ukraine
Secondly, Europe’s monetary support for Ukraine is not evenly spread.
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support → spread → Ukraine
Germany is the second-largest donor, having spent €54bn since the start of the war, a particularly crucial contribution since Trump ceased virtually all new US funding.
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Trump → spend → funding
But a report from the Kiel Institut describes this funding as “sizeable but not exceptional” given the scale of the German economy.
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report → describe → economy
Four Nordic countries together have given more than Germany, even though they total only a third of Germany’s population, the researchers note.
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researchers → give → population
The EU’s other big economies, France and Italy, give less than Germany.
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economies → give → Germany
The Nordic, Baltic and other north European states are Ukraine’s most generous donors when contributions are measured against national income, according to the Kiel Institut.
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contributions → measure → Institut
Denmark, for instance, spends an equivalent to 4.17% of its gross domestic product supporting Ukraine, and Estonia 3.77%, compared with 1.49% spent by Germany, 1.1% by France, 1% by Italy and 0.86% by the UK.
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Denmark → spend → UK
With Ukraine’s huge bill to defend itself growing, and Russia’s relentless attacks continuing to wreak a heavy toll, these more generous donors might arguably feel Europe’s biggest economies – and other western allies – could do more to shoulder these ever-rising costs.
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economies → defend → costs
Top donors to Ukraine by percentage of GDP
Thirdly, and most critically, Europe’s support for Ukraine could be reaching its limits, as Europe enters a supercycle of elections in which the far-right are expected to make gains.
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right → reach → gains
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, argued that the biggest risk for Ukraine is not Trump’s opinions, but the potential for European support to fragment.
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support → argue → Ukraine
There is a risk 2027 will be the year “when political reality, electoral reality, policy reality, economic reality catches up with Europe and prevents it being able to go further in its support for Ukraine”, he said.
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he → be → Ukraine
The far-right leader and frontrunner Marine Le Pen is seeking to present herself as the candidate to restore order and security, after days of rioting and looting across French cities.
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leader → seek → cities
She has also vowed to cease aid to Ukraine within six months of taking office “because we simply cannot do it any more”.
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we → vow → it
Speaking to the Financial Times (£), Le Pen vowed to slash France’s contributions to the EU budget, which raises questions about a proposed €100bn fund for Ukraine in the upcoming 2028-34 budget cycle.
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which → speak → cycle
Beyond Ukraine, her election could plunge the EU into a deep internal crisis that will consume political energies and attention.
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that → plunge → energies
Putin’s ‘strategic patience’ rewarded?
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patience → reward → ?
“European support for Ukraine is already fragmenting,” argued Rahman, who points out the €90bn loan for Ukraine was agreed by only 24 EU countries (Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia opted out).
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Hungary → fragment → countries
But a Le Pen victory could tilt the balance, especially if anti-Ukraine parties make gains in Spain, Poland and Italy.
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parties → tilt → Spain
“Le Pen is the biggest gamechanger because she will provide cover for many other countries to say: ‘enough is enough, we can’t keep funding,’” Rahman said.
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Rahman → provide → funding
That scenario paints “a really dark picture for Ukraine, a really sad picture for Ukraine” he said.
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he → paint → Ukraine
“Because it’s not about Ukraine’s performance on the battlefield – Ukraine has done a remarkable job of holding the line.
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Ukraine → ’ → line
This is the risk Europe has been talking about for a very long time, and has promised Ukraine many times it would not allow to happen: that through strategic patience, Russia gains in the negotiating room what it has not been able to gain on the battlefield.
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it → talk → battlefield
And that is precisely the risk Ukraine is now confronting.”
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Ukraine → confront → ?
To head off this risk, EU leaders will seek to shore up support for Ukraine by agreeing another funding plan.
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leaders → head → plan
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
