The Kremlin is counting the Trump administration’s latest turn against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a major triumph and, coupled with political upheaval in Europe, a sign that Western support for Ukraine is finally crumbling.
asserted
support → count → Ukraine
In the 10 days since Vladimir Putin last spoke by telephone with the American president, Donald Trump has announced a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies to the global market, throttled Ukraine’s access to vital battlefield satellite systems, put sweeping new sanctions against Russian on hold, as well as moved even more firmly to Russia’s side by calling for Zelensky’s ouster and holding up supplies of critical interceptor missiles.
asserted
Trump → speak → missiles
On Monday, Trump blasted the Ukrainian president again, saying it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine”.
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somebody → blast → Ukraine
The stakes seem higher than ever.
asserted
stakes → seem → ?
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Oslo this week to meet Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.
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envoy → set → Zelensky
Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected participate via video link.
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law → expect → link
“The aim is to put diplomatic efforts on a more constructive path,” Store said.
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Store → put → path
Zelensky said on Sunday that if Washington aligned with Russia, Ukraine would not survive.
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Ukraine → say → Russia
“If the United States will support Putin – it’s unbelievable, it’s a tragedy,” he told NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday.
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he → support → Sunday
“If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail.
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we → prevail → course
And we will not be able to stand.”
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we → stand → ?
While the European leaders and Zelensky might hope to use the Oslo meeting to steer the Trump administration to a tougher stance against Moscow, Kremlin officials have been crowing that victory over Ukraine is on the horizon, and that Trump’s recent moves are steps toward an ever closer alignment between Washington and Moscow.
uncertain
moves → hope → Washington
Trump’s recent ratcheting up of pressure on Zelensky could mean the US president is again seeking to strong-arm the Ukrainian leader into a deal on terms favourable to Moscow.
uncertain
president → mean → Moscow
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Witkoff is expected to brief Putin following the Oslo talks.
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Witkoff → say → talks
Earlier, Peskov said Ukraine’s recent resumption of strikes on Russian oil refineries – in defiance of Trump’s demands – showed Zelensky’s administration in its death throes.
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resumption → say → throes
“Some final signs of agony are being observed,” Peskov said.
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Peskov → observe → agony
“The Kyiv regime is resisting.
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regime → resist → ?
But this cannot change the course of events.”
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this → change → events
“Checkmate,” Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted triumphantly.
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Dmitriev → post → ?
In Moscow, members of the Russian elite said that Putin, a former KGB officer, once again managed to turn the US president.
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Putin → say → president
Putin has decades of experience charming and manipulating foreign leaders, and has demonstrated a consistent ability to flatter Trump and pull him on side, analysts and officials said.
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analysts → have → side
This time, they said, the Russian leader preyed on Trump’s fears over low approval ratings and sky-high energy prices ahead of the US midterm elections, offering a deal on Russian diesel fuel that will supply just a fraction of America’s daily consumption and have no impact on prices.
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that → say → prices
On Friday, the average US diesel price continued to climb to $US6.33 per gallon, an increase of about 5 cents per gallon from the previous week.
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price → continue → week
“Russia’s leaders have achieved a certain political victory,” said a Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
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who → achieve → diplomacy
“All this happened after their telephone call.
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this → happen → call
Probably Putin was able to convince Trump.”
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Putin → convince → Trump
Putin, the academic added, “probably conducted this conversation very professionally and prepared his arguments well”.
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academic → add → arguments
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man and now an opposition leader in exile, said recent events followed a pattern in Putin’s relations with Trump.
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events → say → Trump
“I am absolutely convinced that they believe that they managed to take advantage, as they always do; they are opportunists,” Khodorkovsky said.
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Khodorkovsky → convince → advantage
“In this case, they believe they have waited for the moment of Trump’s additional weakness and [taken] advantage of it.
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they → believe → it
“For Putin, everything that is happening today are signs of the West’s weakness.”
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that → happen → weakness
Dmitriev, the special envoy, and other Russian officials hailed the diesel deal and Trump’s waiving of tough sanctions that were to be imposed under a bill adopted in honour of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, a firm GOP supporter of Ukraine, as steps toward broader Russia-US economic cooperation.
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that → hail → cooperation
Historically, Russia and the US have never been big economic partners, with Russia exporting little of interest to the US market.
“There is a whole range of economic and investment projects being discussed with the American side that will be implemented,” Dmitriev told a Russian energy forum last week.
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Dmitriev → export → forum
“Our list of projects being discussed with the American side also includes various projects in the Arctic, energy projects, LNG [liquefied natural gas] projects and other areas.”
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list → discuss → Arctic
“More and more Americans, including within the administration, understand that sanctions harm the United States itself,” he added.
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he → include → States
In July – after years of Putin refusing to drop his maximalist demands in Ukraine – Trump finally seemed to side with Zelensky, telling reporters he was doing “an amazing job” and even backing Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russian oil refineries.
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he → refuse → refineries
Ukraine is expendable on strategic grounds, in Trump’s view, and it was standing in the way of a perfectly good campaign talking point.
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it → stand → point
“It’s an escalation, but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end” of the war, Trump said.
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Trump → ’ → war
But as the US conflict with Iran dragged on, keeping upward pressure on global oil prices, and as the midterm elections drew ever nearer, the Trump administration suddenly turned again.
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administration → drag → prices
After an August 31 meeting with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at a Group of 20 (G20) event in Asheville, North Carolina, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries as the reason for surging fuel prices – rather than the war in Iran.
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Bessent → blame → Iran
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
