As your correspondent can attest, it's an easy trap to fall into.
asserted
it → attest → ?
Prioritise another task to avoid something more difficult or unpleasant, even though you know you'll eventually need to do the thing you've been putting off, and it will be all the more painful because of the delay.
asserted
it → prioritise → delay
The problem is that we're now doing it collectively, at least across much of the Western world, including Australia.
asserted
we → do → Australia
A new Grattan Institute report titled "Budget reboot: How to fund Australia's future" notes that state government debts have more than doubled since 2019.
"Outside of the COVID pandemic, the last time Australian governments owed this much, the country was still paying off debt from a world war," the report observes.
asserted
report → title → war
The interest bill on state government debt has also doubled to 0.6 per cent of Australia's annual economic output, and is likely to soon double again as rising interest rates have pushed the cost of borrowing to fund deficits up roughly four-fold since immediately before COVID.
asserted
rates → double → COVID
The federal government hasn't been nearly so profligate, at least since the pandemic stimulus period ended, but it too is stuck in a structural deficit, and may find itself on the hook as some states meander towards fiscal disaster.
uncertain
states → end → disaster
The Grattan report argues that governments should be saving for a rainy day now, as global economic, climate and geopolitical shocks are set to become more frequent.
asserted
shocks → argue → day
"Tomorrow's Australians will increasingly pay the price for today's deficits, whether through higher taxes or worse public services," the authors warn.
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authors → pay → taxes
The price of past inaction
A separate survey-based report from AMP finds that today's young Australians are already paying a large personal price for policy inertia over the past decade, long after it became clear that a cocktail of tax breaks, planning restrictions, low interest rates and financial deregulation was pushing housing out of reach.
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cocktail → base → reach
The study finds that more than half of adults under 30 have changed their intentions around having children due to cost-of-living pressures.
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half → find → pressures
Close to half have reconsidered having children altogether.
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half → reconsider → children
Nearly two-thirds feel they need a foot on the property ownership ladder before starting a family, but AMP's calculations show saving a 20 per cent deposit takes more than a decade for most.
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saving → feel → most
No wonder Australians are having children later, and fewer of them when they get around to it.
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they → have → it
One might consider this a form of enforced procrastination due to the social and economic conditions young people are facing.
uncertain
people → consider → conditions
Ironically, this seems likely to compound the budget problems already brewing, especially in an era where smaller migration programs are in vogue.
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programs → seem → vogue
"As Australia ages, the challenge is sustaining living standards and meeting growing demand for care without placing an ever-greater burden on working families," AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina writes.
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Mousina → age → families
A plan for GST reform
The Grattan Institute's plan isn't for swinging budget cuts, although it does urge far greater spending discipline, especially at the state level.
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it → swing → level
"Too often, politicians approach 'budget repair' as if it merely requires cutting a few wasteful public spending programs," Grattan pointedly cautions.
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Grattan → approach → programs
"But given the size of the fiscal challenges Australia faces, the reality is that lasting repair will require both spending and revenue reform."
In fact, given it considers Australia "a relatively low-taxing country", at 29.4 per cent of GDP compared to the OECD average of about 34 per cent, the Grattan report argues there's room for a modest revenue increase.
asserted
report → give → increase
The single best means to raise that additional revenue, the Grattan report argues, is through an expanded goods and services tax (GST), with a higher rate of 15 per cent (up from 10) and fewer exemptions.
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report → raise → 10
It wants fresh food taxed, with future consideration given to removing other current exemptions, such as health and education, which it argues favour higher income earners who spend more on these services.
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who → want → services
The higher rate and taxation of all food would bring in an additional $76 billion in annual revenue.
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rate → bring → revenue
Grattan argues close to half of that ($33 billion) should go to cutting income tax, particularly for low- and middle-income earners.
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half → argue → earners
It earmarks about $25 billion to boost welfare payments and rent assistance to compensate for the increased GST, with a bit extra to reduce poverty among this group.
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It → earmark → group
The states would receive the remaining $18 billion to improve their fiscal sustainability in the face of soaring healthcare costs.
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states → receive → costs
It also strongly recommends pulling the 2018 sweetheart GST allocation deal with Western Australia and using the $6 billion that saves to boost the federal budget bottom line.
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that → recommend → line
However, it's difficult to have much optimism that Grattan's vision is politically possible.
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vision → have → optimism
We've already seen Anthony Albanese run a mile from any hint of abandoning WA's favourable GST distribution, concocted by his Liberal predecessor Scott Morrison.
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Albanese → see → predecessor
Even where the federal government is trying to claw back savings, it's on the back foot.
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it → try → foot
Look at the losing battle it's facing to remove an additional private health insurance subsidy from older Australians.
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it → look → Australians
Politicians opposing the change have pointed to the number of pensioners who would be left worse off, portraying them as a universally disadvantaged group who cannot afford the extra cost.
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who → oppose → cost
But the modelling they have provided hasn't distinguished between the numbers of full and part-pensioners affected.
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they → provide → pensioners
The reality is that relatively few full pensioners are likely to have private health insurance.
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pensioners → have → insurance
Most of those with health insurance are on part-pensions, often supplemented by income streams from substantial savings, and are typically owner-occupiers with very low housing costs because they aren't paying rent or a mortgage.
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they → supplement → rent
In fact, my GP's practice stopped blanket bulk billing pensioners a few years ago because many of these patients had larger disposable incomes.
asserted
many → stop → incomes
That's not to mention the heat the government is facing over its much bigger reforms to rein in NDIS spending, reduce tax minimisation via trusts, or to wind back the negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks that have done so much to pump up the housing market and reduce intergenerational equity in the first place.
asserted
that → mention → place
As Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently said: "Power is much more effective right now in the distorting and blocking than the building or reforming."
asserted
Power → say → building
The sense of hopelessness is spread across the political spectrum.
asserted
sense → spread → spectrum
One of Chalmers's predecessors, Joe Hockey, with a very different vision of reform as expressed in his largely rejected austerity budget of 2014, recently told The Business things would need to get a lot worse before they might get better.
uncertain
they → express → Business
There's going to have to be a financial crisis," the Abbott government treasurer warned.
asserted
treasurer → be → ?
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia