Amid Trump trade war, Canada's exports to China up 30% in first half of 2026
Chinese exports to Canada declined by 5.8% in same period
Canadian exports to China rocketed by 30 per cent in the first half of 2026, with overall trade up 3.6 per cent year over year, according to Statistics Canada data analyzed by researchers.
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exports → decline → researchers
The numbers, part of a new report published by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, appear to reflect the re-engagement between the two countries, which is part of Canada's attempt to diversify its economy amid deteriorating relations with the U.S.
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which → publish → U.S.
Overall trade in goods between Canada and China totalled $66.6 billion in the first half of 2026, up 3.6 per cent, while exports increased 30 per cent to $21.74 billion year over year.
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exports → total → year
Energy and minerals dominated, making up 58.4 per cent of all domestic exports to China in that time period, with energy (largely crude oil and liquified propane) alone growing by 81.8 per cent.
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energy → dominate → cent
Metal ores and non-metallic mineral exports (including copper ore) rose 29 per cent.
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exports → include → ore
"This is a record for our first half of the year exports to China," said Bijan Ahmadi, executive director of the Canada China Business Council.
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Ahmadi → say → Council
Geopolitics and Trump
Diplomatic and economic ties between Canada and China are warming up after years of tension over Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou's arrest on a U.S. extradition warrant in 2018.
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ties → warm → 2018
And as the latest Canada-U.S. trade escalation threatens to widen the rift between Ottawa and Washington indefinitely, Prime Minister Mark Carney has reiterated Canada’s intention to strike new trade deals with other countries and become less reliant on the U.S.
"We have everything we need to pivot and prosper," Carney said in a video address earlier this month, hours after Canada's retaliatory tariffs against billions in U.S. goods took effect.
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tariffs → threaten → effect
"That pivot will come at a cost.
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pivot → come → cost
But it doesn't come close to the cost of standing still.
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it → come → cost
"
Incidentally, the Trans Mountain Pipeline reached 97 per cent capacity in June, substantially increasing Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil.
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Pipeline → reach → oil
Also aiding the increase in oil exports is the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which disrupted shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher and spurring customers to turn to producers like Canada.
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customers → aid → Canada
There’s also no country that can replace China’s buying power.
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that → ’ → power
"There is a noted complementarity in our trade ... despite some very significant tensions," said Anton Malkin, head of research at the University of Alberta's China Institute.
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Malkin → be → Institute
In fact, Mark Maki, CEO of Trans Mountain, recently projected that Asia would buy 70 per cent of Canada’s oil by 2028.
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Asia → project → 2028
"As we expand, I expect most of that expansion will be directed towards Asia," Maki told Reuters on the sidelines of the APPEC industry meeting in Singapore in early September.
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Maki → expand → September
The first half of 2026 marked what could be described as a seismic shift in bilateral relations.
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what → mark → relations
Carney struck a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to allow tens of thousands of Chinese EVs into the domestic market (so far, 15,603 have entered) in exchange for Beijing suspending some tariffs on Canadian agricultural products like canola meal and peas, and reduced tariffs on canola seed.
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Beijing → strike → seed
"We actually saw almost an immediate upswing in price," said Andre Harpe, chair of the Canadian Canola Growers Association and a canola farmer near Grand Prairie, Alta.
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Harpe → see → Prairie
Harpe said farmers were selling their canola seed as low as $12 a bushel during the tariff dispute with China.
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farmers → say → China
Now, prices have rebounded to $17 a bushel.
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prices → rebound → 17
Canada's largest port, in Vancouver, handles about 16 per cent of the country's merchandise trade.
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port → handle → trade
A third of it goes to or comes from China, and officials say that's increasing.
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that → go → China
"The sentiment that might have existed some time ago, about the inability to get our act together, so to speak, seems to be changing," said Peter Xotta, president and CEO of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority.
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Xotta → exist → Authority
While overall trade increased, the breakdown is vastly different when looking at the import numbers, which are down 5.8 per cent year over year, despite China still being Canada's second-largest source of imports.
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China → increase → imports
This dip reduced Canada’s trade deficit with China by 25 per cent, but Malkin says this is in part fuelled by a shift of "certain types of manufacturing outside of China," like Vietnam.
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this → reduce → Vietnam
"It’s a bit early, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on," he said.
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he → ’ → eye
Ontario accounted for the largest import decline, which meant fewer purchases of portable computers and video game consoles, which outweighed gains made in lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles.
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which → account → batteries
Despite the overall gains, the report authors note "agricultural performance improved only modestly," growing 1.9 per cent.
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performance → note → gains
While canola seed, pea and beef exports rose, lobster did not rebound, instead declining by 28 per cent.
"We're a big exporter of lobsters, but we're not the only place where [China] can get lobsters," said Malkin.
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Malkin → rise → lobsters
Diversify and fortify
Harpe says despite the relief to their bottom lines, farmers are hoping to sell more domestically, to reduce reliance on a single trading partner, especially since the tariff suspension and reductions with China will so far only last until the end of the year.
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suspension → diversify → year
The authors of the new trade report say Canadian exports to China are still below those to the United Kingdom and European Union, and are not indicative of "uniform improvement" across industries but rather a limited group of commodities.
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exports → say → commodities
To Ahmadi, there is room to grow engagement with the Asia-Pacific region, as it represents "significant growing markets," with China alone representing almost half of the market opportunities for businesses.
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China → be → businesses
He says numbers from the end of the year will provide a fuller picture.
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numbers → say → picture
If the numbers from the first half of the year are any indication, though, Ahmadi says Canada is "well on track" to achieve the goal set by Ottawa of increasing exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030.
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Canada → say → 2030
"[We might] even surpass that objective," he said.
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he → surpass → objective
