For years, Anthony Albanese's ability to maintain discipline within Labor has been one of his greatest political strengths.
asserted
ability → maintain → strengths
His MPs have largely kept their complaints private, accepted decisions made by a small group of senior figures and trusted the prime minister’s judgement.
But political loyalty is easier to maintain when a government is winning, and the patience of some Labor MPs is beginning to wear thin.
Albanese told his caucus colleagues this week that despite Labor's current struggles, its political fortunes would improve as the next election drew closer.
He revisited a favourite refrain, telling MPs the party would be "kicking with the wind in the fourth quarter".
It was the same self-assured confidence he projected when Labor was in the grips of a political slump at a similar point in the last parliamentary term.
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Labor → keep → term
Frustration builds for MPS
Having been vindicated so emphatically at the last election, Albanese has reason to trust his instinct.
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Albanese → build → instinct
But while the Voice referendum defeat and controversies over Qantas upgrades and the PM's Copacabana house were politically damaging, they were not as deeply felt by households as the economic pressures confronting them today.
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they → feel → them
High inflation was a major factor in Labor’s previous mid-term woes, but now the financial strain has become more entrenched and the political challenges harder to overcome
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challenges → become → woes
MPs and senators are hearing all this and more as they move around their communities, and they are not happy about it.
The extent of caucus rancour cannot be exclusively judged through complaints aired anonymously through the media.
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extent → hear → media
Neither Albanese nor Treasurer Jim Chalmers fare particularly well, and there is widespread concern about the government’s economic predicament.
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Albanese → fare → predicament
There remains strong internal support for Labor's attempt to tackle the inequity in Australia’s housing market where older home owners and investors have long held the advantage.
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owners → remain → advantage
But anxiety about the impact of inflation and rising interest rates is at an all-time high.
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anxiety → rise → high
Problems of Labor's own making
Labor has spent years acknowledging Australians are struggling with living costs and offering a raft of measures to ease their burden, from cheaper medicines and bulk billed GP appointments to income tax cuts and energy rebates.
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Australians → spend → cuts
Now, despite the public experiencing the same pressures, the government is asking voters to accept a very different economic prescription.
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government → experience → prescription
Labor is increasingly emphasising the need to restrain spending to help ease inflation, with Chalmers using a speech this year to reaffirm there would be "another new savings package by year's end".
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Chalmers → emphasise → end
Current petrol and diesel prices are about the same as they were in March this year when Labor temporarily halved the fuel excise.
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Labor → halve → excise
Rates were lower, albeit inflation was substantially worse, when Labor introduced energy rebates and various other supports in its 2023 budget.
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Labor → introduce → budget
The economic rationale for restraint may be sound, but it is a much harder political argument for a government that has spent years presenting itself as the answer to household financial pressures.
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that → spend → pressures
But the caucus doldrums go beyond the persistent cost-of-living issues.
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doldrums → go → issues
It's the problems that are of the government's own making that are considered the most infuriating.
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that → consider → making
Labor's fix for the Australian Tax Office decision to ban credit card payments for tax was only temporary, with the government still under pressure to find a permanent solution.
Stacked up with the capital gains tax changes, the minimum tax on trusts and the card surcharge issue, a picture is emerging of a government repeatedly being caught on the back foot.
There is internal anger at Chalmers, disbelief at some of the messaging and concern the government lacks a clear "agenda" for the remainder of the term.
Opponents face their own battles
Some Labor MPs view the level of caucus angst as disproportionate to the reality of the party's position.
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MPs → ban → position
The Coalition remains in disarray, One Nation is yet to face the scrutiny that comes with being a serious electoral contender, and the Greens are grappling with their own internal tensions.
Even if Labor's opponents manage to get their act together, the government still has time to recover.
There is a sense that the recent internal rumblings are the result of pent-up frustration that has built over the last year spent being a loyal backbencher.
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that → remain → year
Many MPs were willing to accept their largely powerless roles as "team players" when things were going well.
They are less inclined to sit quietly when they believe the government is making avoidable mistakes.
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government → accept → mistakes
The caucus knows last year's election result, where Labor did not lose a single seat, was exceptionally rare in Australian politics.
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Labor → know → politics
There is almost no chance that happens again, which means there are Labor MPs currently in parliament starting to consider the very real prospect of being out of a job in 18 months' time.
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which → be → time
Albanese is attuned to these internal rumblings and has consistently proven adept at managing the forces that shape the caucus' mood.
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that → prove → mood
The PM prizes orderly process, but the danger is in mistaking stagnation for stability.
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danger → prize → stability
A frontbench reshuffle is not only inevitable, but also necessary to reinvigorate the cabinet and bring new talent through the ranks.
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reshuffle → reinvigorate → ranks
Labor can ill-afford any malaise and is in dire need of fresh ideas to kick start productivity and capture voters' attention.
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Labor → afford → attention
Not everyone can be winners, which means some on the frontbench will also have to embrace the role of "team player" and step back.
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some → mean → player
Albanese now faces a punishing end to the year, with little prospect of relief from the economic and political pressures weighing on his government.
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Albanese → face → government
The prime minister may be confident the conditions will favour Labor in time to secure victory, but his teammates out on the field are impatient for a clearer game plan.
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teammates → favour → plan
The Aporia
