A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?

Read the original at The Dispatch ↗
Cite

Goldberg, J., Hayes, S., Warren, M., & Isgur, S. (2026, October 16). A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave? The Dispatch. https://thedispatch.com/podcast/dispatch-podcast/a-blue-wave-or-an-anti-incumbent-wave/

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Dispatch · collected 2026-10-16 · by Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, Michael Warren, Sarah Isgur

Quick Summary

Steve Hayes hosts a podcast discussion about the midterms with guests Sarah Isgur, Jonah Goldberg, and Mike Warren, focusing on whether there will be significant changes in the midterm elections due to anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment. The conversation also delves into the competitiveness of the South Carolina Senate race and touches briefly on legal topics.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-16, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On today's roundtable discussion on The Dispatch Podcast, hosts Steve Hayes, Sarah Isgur, Mike Warren, and guest Jonah Goldberg explore whether the upcoming midterm elections will see a blue wave, a rogue wave, or another outcome due to widespread anti-incumbent sentiment. They discuss how many Americans desire substantial change or total upheaval in these elections. The conversation also delves into the competitiveness of the South Carolina Senate race and the impact of former President Trump's influence on the GOP, particularly noting that his ego might be hurting Republican candidates.

Written for “Midterm Elections Forecast” on 2026-10-16, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 84236 (medium confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-16

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Forecast
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Decoding America: Everything you need to know about the midterms – video different event · 95%
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 1 of 6 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterms; one provides an overview and predictions, while the other focuses on a podcast discussion about anti-incumbent sentiment.”
Polls are a snapshot, and other helpful things to remember during the midterm elections different event · 90%
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 24 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss general themes related to midterms but describe different content: one about interpreting polls, the other about political sentiment and anti-incumbent wave.”
Inside Michigan’s critical midterm Senate battle different event · 90%
NBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 no claims extracted 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterms and do not focus on the same specific incident or time.”
Ahead of US midterms, voters are frustrated with Trump, want change: Poll different event · 30%
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 20% hedged 3 of 15 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss voter sentiment around midterms but describe different aspects: one is a poll result, while the other is commentary and discussion about potential trends.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
9
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 9 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Dispatch's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Dispatch · 306 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)
2026-10-06
What We Got Wrong in September

Who wrote this

Jonah Goldberg
48 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Ladies and gentlemen, could I please have your attention?
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2026-10-03 · assertive framing · Nixon Was Wrong | Ruminant
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
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Steve Hayes
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
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2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
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2026-09-08 · assertive framing · After Trump
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🔮 We have seen over the past several weeks, but in particular over the past week, a spate of articles in virtually every publication, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, elsewhere, noting the sort of heightened battles, not even battles, heightened concern about data centers and how it's driving political debates and campaigns in some areas and states and districts that we would expect, and probably some areas and states and campaigns that we wouldn't expect.
2026-08-28 · assertive framing · The AI Data Center Moral Panic
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
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Michael Warren
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson to discuss Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt’s failed attempt at setting a perjury trap and the Trump administration’s AI luncheon.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss why GOP midterm candidates aren’t heeding President Donald Trump’s electoral advice, as well as Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French’s racist tweet about a University of Texas football game.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why GOP Candidates Are Ignoring Trump
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
Also by Michael Warren
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
2026-10-09 · The Dispatch
Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
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Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
2026-09-29 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by Michael Warren →
Sarah Isgur
12 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
🔮 And have we got maybe the most thrilling, sexiest advisory opinions to date on sealing orders.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · The Secrecy in Courts Dilemma
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2026-10-13 · assertive framing · Is Spending Money Protected Speech?
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2026-10-08 · assertive framing · SUNCOR Gets Complicated
🔮 So, the judge is, is calling down the names, and he gets to me, and I go up and I say, "Your Honor, you know, look, I could definitely be fair.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Not a MAGA Court
🔮 The second time, maybe we did, but it doesn't matter because now the Eighth Circuit has weighed in.
2026-09-24 · assertive framing · Third Time’s the Charm?
🔮 [applause] [chuckles] We will be doing our traditional term preview, where we try to go through the cases that are scheduled thus far, but in a fun way, and not just a death march through the schedule.
2026-09-17 · assertive framing · Looking Ahead to the Supreme Court Term
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2026-10-13 · The Dispatch
SUNCOR Gets Complicated
2026-10-08 · The Dispatch
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2026-10-01 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 12 articles by Sarah Isgur →

Topics

Americans GOP SCOTUSblog Senate South Carolina

Subjects

Sarah Isgur PERSON · 3× Jonah Goldberg PERSON · 2× Mike Warren PERSON · 2× Senate ORG · 2× South Carolina GPE · 2× Steve Hayes PERSON · 2× Americans NORP · 1× GOP ORG · 1× SCOTUSblog ORG · 1× Trump PERSON · 1×

Narrative

On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-16
🔮 On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely.
2026-10-16 · The Dispatch
A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave? · assertive framing

Claims (9 extracted, 0 hedged)

Steve Hayes is joined by Sarah Isgur, Jonah Goldberg, and Mike Warren to discuss the state of the midterms and whether South Carolina is truly a competitive state in 2026. asserted
Carolina → join → 2026
The Agenda: —The first true “wave?” —How Trump’s ego is hurting the GOP —Redistricted districts Show notes: [upbeat music] Welcome to "The Dispatch Podcast." asserted
ego → hurt → Podcast
On today's roundtable, we'll discuss a large number of Americans who say they want substantial change or complete and total upheaval in these midterm elections, and whether the prevailing anti-incumbent and anti-Trump sentiment will lead to a blue wave, a rogue wave, or something else entirely. asserted
sentiment → discuss → wave
I'm joined today by Dispatch Editor in Chief Jonah Goldberg, Advisory Opinions Host and SCOTUSblog Editor Sarah Isgur, and Politics Editor and author of our must-read Next Right newsletter, Mike Warren. asserted
I → join → newsletter
Let's dive right in. asserted
's → let → ?
Mike, we're always happy to have you join us for the podcast, but we're especially grateful for Jonah joining us today, coming off of a hellish trip back from Tulsa, Oklahoma, and three hours of sleep. asserted
Jonah → have → sleep
And we're excited to welcome back Sarah Isgur to weigh in on politics. asserted
we → welcome → politics
Sarah, you've been focused of late on the law and SCOTUS blogging and advisory opinioning, but we wanna pull you back in and do some politics today, so thanks for making time. asserted
we → focus → time
I'm living in Texas now, and anytime you try to watch any college football game, wall-to-wall Senate ads, so I feel particularly qualified to join today. asserted
I → live → wall
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