What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong

Read the original at The Dispatch ↗
The Dispatch · collected 2026-10-09 · by Steve Hayes, Jonah Goldberg, Chris Stirewalt, Michael Warren

Quick Summary

Steve Hayes hosts a podcast where experts discuss midterm election polls and their reliability. Guests include Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt, who analyze recent polls indicating potential shifts in traditionally red states towards Democratic candidates. The discussion centers on interpreting these polls amidst concerns about historical undercounting of Republican voters and the impact of redistricting efforts on upcoming elections.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-09, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On a recent episode of The Dispatch Podcast, Steve Hayes discussed midterm election projections less than one month before voting day. Joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt, they analyzed Republican redistricting efforts and their potential to save seats or backfire. They also debated whether Democrats can moderate post-elections and what a Democrat-controlled Congress might look like. The conversation covered uncertainties in current polling accuracy amidst upcoming elections on November 8.

Written for “Midterm Elections Polling Error” on 2026-10-09, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 67735 · logged 2026-10-09

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
3%
1 of 30 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
60.6
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-09 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Polling Error
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 21 of 440 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A describes a specific broadcast episode of 'Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,' while Article B discusses midterm elections on a different podcast.”
10/4: Face The Nation different event · 95%
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe different shows and discussions on separate dates.”
TIME
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 14% hedged 5 of 37 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections and do not focus on the same specific incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 32 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm election expectations and concerns, with Article A focusing on Democrats' potential complacency issues and Article B discussing a broader panel discussion on midterms.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 19% hedged 8 of 42 📰 publisher trust 70
“The articles discuss general themes around midterm elections but describe different content and focus.”
NBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 no claims extracted 📰 publisher trust 95
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections on distinct dates and with different hosts and formats.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 14 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections without describing the same specific incident or occurrence.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 20% hedged 10 of 49 📰 publisher trust 77
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections; one focuses on polling data suggesting a surge for Democrats, while the other is about a podcast discussing broader implications and strategies.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 1 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss midterm polls but cover different discussions on different dates and involve distinct sets of analysts and hosts.”

Publisher

The Dispatch · 264 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)
2026-10-06
What We Got Wrong in September

Who wrote this

Jonah Goldberg
41 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Ladies and gentlemen. Could I please have your attention?
🔮 Got to the office extra early this morning so I could get this done and get to work on the G file and get back on the book and do all sorts of other things and make... get home to make the meatballs and do the sauce and pick up the guns from Robert De Niro, but the helicopter keeps following me.
2026-10-03 · assertive framing · Nixon Was Wrong | Ruminant
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson to discuss Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt’s failed attempt at setting a perjury trap and the Trump administration’s AI luncheon.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
🔮 That’s what it says beneath several ridiculous ads celebrating Donald Trump as a man of strength and will.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Because He Can
🔮 While Tony is sadly unwilling to drop Mentos into a 2-liter bottle of soda and stand over it with his mouth open (yes, we did ask), he is absolutely willing to bring the heat on science, AI, and the doom of humanity.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · The Scientific Republic | Interview: Tony Mills
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 This October will mark three years since Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza, igniting a complicated web of wars and regional conflicts across the Middle East.
🔮 It’s not what Jonah Goldberg expected to find himself in the middle of after walking in the door the day the Stephanie Slade Remnant Ruminant, wherein Jonah not only recounts his domestic dust-up over drag queen story hour but dives deep into Trump Derangement Syndrome, Xi Jinping at the White House, the autopen incident, Nikole Hannah-Jones, progressives, teachers unions, Nick Kristof and the rape dogs, Macklemore and Israel, Jonah going woke, rationalism vs reason, family, fusionism, the Western Massachusetts lesbian bar, and how we’re all both conservatives and liberals.
2026-09-26 · assertive framing · Feelin’ A Little Irish | Ruminant
🔮 Maybe it says something about my excessively bourgeois, disproportionately right-of-center, gay-friendly but mostly not gay social and professional circles, but I haven’t met anybody who didn’t love the Boston Globe piece on the Last Ditch Bar.
2026-09-25 · assertive framing · The Last Ditch for Mask Hysteria
Also by Jonah Goldberg
Nixon Was Wrong | Ruminant
2026-10-03 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 41 articles by Jonah Goldberg →
Steve Hayes
9 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 I will remember, I came out of my office, and I saw a couple of secretaries.
2026-09-11 · assertive framing · Did We Win the War on Terror?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Michael Reneau to discuss our latest editorial on a post-Trump reality, comments by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff to Vladimir Putin as the U.S. pursues negotiations for an end to the Ukraine war, and finally, a Labor Day edition of Not Worth Your Time.
2026-09-08 · assertive framing · After Trump
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 We have seen over the past several weeks, but in particular over the past week, a spate of articles in virtually every publication, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, elsewhere, noting the sort of heightened battles, not even battles, heightened concern about data centers and how it's driving political debates and campaigns in some areas and states and districts that we would expect, and probably some areas and states and campaigns that we wouldn't expect.
2026-08-28 · assertive framing · The AI Data Center Moral Panic
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
Also by Steve Hayes
Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
2026-09-29 · The Dispatch
Did We Win the War on Terror?
2026-09-11 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 9 articles by Steve Hayes →
Michael Warren
9 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg and Kevin Williamson to discuss Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt’s failed attempt at setting a perjury trap and the Trump administration’s AI luncheon.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Sen. Schmitt’s Failed Attack on Jack Smith
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the possibility of Democrats flipping a seat in Kansas and the Trump administration’s “public service announcements.”
2026-09-29 · assertive framing · Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
🔮 Mike Warren is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Megan McArdle, and Kevin Williamson to discuss why GOP midterm candidates aren’t heeding President Donald Trump’s electoral advice, as well as Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French’s racist tweet about a University of Texas football game.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why GOP Candidates Are Ignoring Trump
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Klon Kitchen to discuss the resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that AI may “kill us all,” yet another flip-flop by the Trump administration on Ukraine, and President Trump’s $5,000 bribe to voters during the midterm convention.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Will Artificial Intelligence ‘Kill Us All?’
🔮 There are a couple dozen competitive House races, depending on how you count them, probably 6, 7, 8 competitive Senate races, maybe a couple more.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Can the GOP Survive Trump’s Approval Numbers?
🔮 Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Kevin Williamson, and Mike Warren to discuss the U.S. crossing the $40 trillion debt threshold and the prospect of “growing our way out of it.”
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · How The U.S. Racked Up Its $40 Trillion Debt
Also by Michael Warren
Trump’s Big Tent Is Collapsing
2026-09-30 · The Dispatch
Can Democrats Flip a Kansas Senate Seat?
2026-09-29 · The Dispatch
Why GOP Candidates Are Ignoring Trump
2026-09-18 · The Dispatch
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 9 articles by Michael Warren →
Chris Stirewalt
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

CNN Democratic Democrats Republicans Senate

Subjects

CNN ORG · 6× Chris Stirewalt PERSON · 3× Jonah Goldberg PERSON · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Democrats NORP · 2× Jonah PERSON · 2× Mike Warren PERSON · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Senate ORG · 2× Steve Hayes PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt to discuss how the midterms are shaping up less than one month out and what to expect from a Democrat-controlled Congress.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09
🔮 Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire?
2026-10-09 · The Dispatch
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong · assertive framing

Claims (30 extracted, 1 hedged)

Steve Hayes is joined by Jonah Goldberg, Mike Warren, and Chris Stirewalt to discuss how the midterms are shaping up less than one month out and what to expect from a Democrat-controlled Congress. asserted
midterms → join → Congress
The Agenda: —GOP redistricting —2028 Democratic candidates —Can Democrats moderate? —A Democratic Congress Show notes: [instrumental music] Welcome to the Dispatch Podcast. asserted
Democrats → moderate → Podcast
On today's round table, we take a big picture look at the midterms, which are now less than a month out. asserted
which → take → midterms
Can the Republicans hold onto the Senate? asserted
Republicans → hold → Senate
Will the redistricting efforts save some Republican seats, or will that backfire? asserted
that → save → seats
And are the polls we're seeing reliable? asserted
we → see → ?
A warning for sensitive listeners, if you're eating while listening, you might wanna pause the podcast until you finish up. uncertain
you → eat → podcast
I'm joined today by Dispatch Editor-in-Chief, Jonah Goldberg, Politics Editor, Mike Warren, and Politics Editor for NewsNation and contributing writer for The Dispatch, Chris Stirewalt. asserted
I → join → Dispatch
Let's dive right in. asserted
's → let → ?
[instrumental music] Chris Stirewalt, I wanna start with you. asserted
I → start → you
The headline over the news is, "Two deep red states are in play as Democrats eye path to Senate majority." asserted
Democrats → eye → majority
I'm not gonna ask you about the races. asserted
I → go → races
I'm gonna ask you about the polls. asserted
I → go → polls
You have been doing this for longer than any of us. asserted
You → do → us
You've read probably 10 times the number of polls carefully that Jonah, Mike, and I have even skimmed. asserted
Jonah → read → that
You know what you're talking about when it comes to polling. asserted
it → know → polling
When you see a headline like that and you click in and you do read the polls, what's your reaction? asserted
reaction → see → polls
How do you read a poll in today's environment? asserted
you → read → environment
Do you look at those numbers and say, "Take it to the bank. asserted
you → look → bank
This is exactly how the race is going to turn out"? asserted
race → go → ?
Or do you say, "We can't trust this stuff. asserted
We → say → stuff
I don't know what I can believe"? asserted
I → know → what
How do you look at polls? asserted
you → look → polls
There were five polls that came out this past weekend in the New York Times. asserted
that → be → Times
What's your first reaction when you read a poll? asserted
you → read → poll
How are you gonna make me talk about CNN polling with my friend, Jonah Goldberg? asserted
me → go → friend
I mean, he-- asserted
I → mean → ?
Look, he is loyal to CNN. asserted
he → look → CNN
I assume he wants to remain there. asserted
he → assume → ?
He does a good job when he goes on CNN, but he, he's not gonna upbraid you for criticizing a CNN poll or any other poll. asserted
he → do → poll
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support