On Sept. 25, a Russian drone slammed into Daniel Umansky’s apartment in Kyiv, killing him and injuring his mother.
asserted
drone → slam → mother
At the moment of impact, 14-year-old Daniel was completing a school assignment: an essay on the teachings of major figures in Ukraine’s medieval history and their relevance to the world of today.
asserted
Daniel → complete → today
Daniel Umansky is not the first Ukrainian civilian to be killed by the Russian military, nor will he be the last.
asserted
he → kill → military
The United Nations counts at least 200 civilians killed and over 1,200 injured last month alone.
asserted
Nations → count → civilians
But President Donald Trump’s diesel deal — under which Moscow would supply up to 5 million metric tons of diesel to US and global markets in exchange for eased US sanctions on Russian fuel — risks turning repetition into routine.
asserted
Moscow → supply → routine
I lead the American Coalition for Ukraine, a nonpartisan coalition of 45 US nonprofits working to strengthen American support for a just peace.
asserted
I → lead → peace
Daniel’s story should make any American think twice about bankrolling Vladimir Putin’s war by letting Russian energy flow to market.
asserted
energy → make → market
Yet it may mean little to policymakers who pride themselves on their unsentimental pragmatism, their commitment to defending American interests, and their willingness to confront difficult realities in a perilous world.
uncertain
who → mean → world
So it’s important to consider what those realities truly are: America will gain little from this deal and lose much — and Putin will come out the winner.
asserted
Putin → ’ → much
He’ll use any revenue he receives from oil sales to finance more bombs and drones that his military will deploy against civilians in Ukraine, as he keeps proving night after night.
asserted
he → use → night
Claims that Kyiv has rejected the White House’s calls for an energy cease-fire are not true: Ukraine’s leaders have said repeatedly that they are willing to cease striking Russia’s energy sector so long as Russia reciprocates in kind.
uncertain
Russia → reject → kind
In fact, Ukraine again heeded Trump’s latest call for an energy cease-fire, suspending strikes on Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure for several days.
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Ukraine → heed → days
Putin did not: On Wednesday, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, killing civilians and causing extensive damage.
asserted
Russia → do → damage
Once again, Putin has openly disrespected Washington, making a mockery of US warnings.
asserted
Putin → disrespect → warnings
He believes he can keep doing so without facing any consequences.
asserted
he → believe → consequences
And yet, Trump’s diesel deal rewards Moscow while giving Putin no compelling reason to change course.
asserted
deal → reward → course
The deal does little to address the root causes of the diesel shortage; it rests on the mistaken assumption that Russian refining capacity can simply be switched back on.
asserted
capacity → do → assumption
Moscow has repeatedly shown that it will prioritize its domestic needs over international sales.
asserted
it → show → sales
Moreover, the Russians will need months to fix their own refining capacity.
asserted
Russians → need → capacity
Additional Ukrainian strikes will delay this timeline further.
asserted
strikes → delay → timeline
And Ukraine may well continue to strike if Russia continues its assault; no amount of unilateral coercion will convince Kyiv to mortgage its children’s future for discounted commodities.
uncertain
amount → continue → commodities
To find the real reason for high diesel prices, the president should look elsewhere: Middle Eastern producers are able to move crude oil at a rate approximating pre-war levels through the Strait of Hormuz, but refineries are still processing less diesel than before.
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refineries → find → diesel
In addition, the proposed deal will undercut American credibility on key national security challenges, making it more difficult for the White House to rally international support on China and Iran.
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House → propose → China
Just three weeks ago, Trump signed legislation pressing countries around the world to decrease their dependence on Russian energy.
asserted
Trump → sign → energy
The diesel deal does exactly the opposite.
asserted
deal → do → opposite
And it sends a jumble of counterproductive messages to allies: If they don’t like the rules set forth by the White House, they can simply wait a few weeks and the rules will change.
asserted
rules → send → House
Further, the deal could harm Americans directly.
uncertain
deal → harm → Americans
In addition to striking Ukraine, Russia may use this windfall to expand Iran’s missile stockpile, endangering US military personnel if hostilities in the Persian Gulf resume.
uncertain
hostilities → strike → Gulf
Meanwhile, adversaries around the world will draw the obvious conclusion: Apply sufficient pressure on this White House and you’ll get your way.
asserted
you → draw → way
Debates about global energy pricing, international alliance management and battlefield advantages matter.
asserted
Debates → matter → pricing
But beyond them lies a starker truth, however unappealing to those practiced in the dispassionate and clinical analysis of the world order.
asserted
truth → lie → order
Somewhere in Ukraine, regular people are playing or learning or sleeping.
asserted
people → play → Ukraine
In the weeks and months ahead, some will be killed by Russian munitions.
asserted
some → kill → munitions
The diesel deal is folly — and they will suffer for it.
asserted
they → suffer → it
Those in power must include Ukrainians like Daniel Umansky in their calculus.
asserted
Those → include → calculus
The Aporia
