In his usual asinine unconventional approach to international relations, Donald Trump announced on Sunday (via Truth Social, how else) an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine”, apparently without checking with either side.
asserted
Trump → announce → side
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said any such deal was “news to me,” nonetheless declared he was “ready and we will accept it”.
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we → say → it
Vladimir Putin responded by blowing up some Ukrainian power plants.
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Putin → respond → plants
Meanwhile fighting continues, and America’s allies attempt to manage the fallout.
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allies → continue → fallout
Andy Burnham hosted Zelenskyy at Downing Street yesterday, stating the UK is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, and pointedly calling on others to “follow suit”.
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UK → host → suit
It’s a negotiators nightmare.
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It → ’ → ?
So how are ambassadors, spooks and diplomats handling the chaos?
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ambassadors → handle → chaos
For today’s First Edition, I spoke to career diplomat and former ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies to find out.
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I → speak → Davies
Sally Rooney has said she is being forced to withdraw her books from sale in the UK because of her support for the banned organisation Palestine Action.
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she → say → organisation
Israel is refusing to allow a key military outpost project for Donald Trump’s Board of Peace to proceed in Gaza, the Guardian has learned.
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Guardian → refuse → Gaza
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EU | Britain will benefit from much closer trading relations with the EU even if that means giving up its ability to negotiate free trade agreements
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that → benefit → agreements
, the Scotland secretary has said.
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secretary → say → ?
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Ukraine | Ukraine’s military has suddenly had its access to Starlink satellite internet terminals restricted as the Trump administration has increased pressure on Ukraine to immediately halt long-range strikes on Russia’s oil industry.
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administration → have → industry
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Vaccine | Guinea-Bissau has not approved the controversial hepatitis B study in newborns that would be funded by the US government and private partners
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that → approve → government
, the African country’s minister of health said.
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minister → say → health
In depth: ‘A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests’
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it → believe → interests
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, efforts to secure either a temporary ceasefire or a permanent peace deal have resolutely failed.
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efforts → secure → ceasefire
Endless rounds of talks in Belarus, Turkey, Abu Dhabi and Geneva have all proved futile.
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rounds → prove → Belarus
To Nigel Gould-Davies, it’s obvious why.
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it → ’ → Davies
Gould-Davies tells me that there are established norms for negotiating during military conflicts.
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Davies → tell → conflicts
Diplomats look for the interests, needs and red lines that each side articulates, in pursuit of the elusive “win set”.
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side → look → set
“A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests to end the fighting than to continue,” he says.
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he → believe → fighting
“You have to find that overlap in the Venn diagram that leads to a defined set of conditions which, despite involving painful compromises, is ultimately judged to better serve each side than continuing to fight.
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which → have → side
“The problem with this situation is that Russia has no interest in ending the war,” he says.
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he → have → war
It is through this lens that we should view all Russia-Ukraine talks since Trump’s return to the presidency, Gould-Davies suggests.
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Davies → view → presidency
“They have not really been negotiations,” but “parallel efforts by Russia and Ukraine to persuade the White House it’s the other side’s fault” that a peace agreement (and, perhaps more importantly to Trump, that elusive Nobel peace prize) had failed to materialise.
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agreement → persuade → Trump
That said, the respective red lines aren’t difficult to identify.
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lines → say → ?
Ukraine has time and again said it is willing to accept an unconditional ceasefire.
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it → say → ceasefire
“Russia, by contrast, has repeatedly said publicly that it is not interested in a ceasefire,” says Gould-Davies, only in a full and final end to the war that, in Russian terms, means “decisive superiority and dominance over a severely weakened Ukraine”.
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that → say → Ukraine
That’s an outcome Ukraine can’t, and won’t, sign up for.
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Ukraine → ’ → ?
This is already a headache for UK, European and American diplomats, who most recently met in Miami at the end of last week.
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who → meet → week
But there’s also the added Trump-shaped impediment to grapple with; what Gould-Davies diplomatically describes as the challenge of having “a non-standard president” in the White House.
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Davies → ’ → House
When Trump unilaterally declared an energy ceasefire, Gould-Davies says, it had “no basis whatsoever in reality”.
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it → declare → reality
“He simply made it up … a product of a fantasy.”
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it → make → fantasy
The botched digital diplomacy aside, Trump’s interests also don’t appear aligned with Ukraine or traditional US allies.
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interests → appear → Ukraine
“[Trump’s] natural centre of gravity is to favour Russia,” says Gould-Davies, citing restrictions on US weapons supplies and past pauses in intelligence sharing.
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Davies → favour → sharing
Yesterday, Zelenskyy accused Trump of restricting Ukrainian access to “military-grade” Starlink services, hampering Ukrainian drone strike missions and air defences.
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Zelenskyy → accuse → missions
Granted, Trump has at times sided with the Ukrainian president: sanctioning Russian oil companies and helping Ukraine target Russian energy infrastructure.
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Ukraine → grant → infrastructure
But for all Trump’s “lurching”, says Gould-Davies, his theory of ending the war involves concessions to Russia and coercion of Ukraine.
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theory → say → Ukraine
After a period of relative quiet from Trump on the Russia-Ukraine front, this week Trump’s attention returned.
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attention → return → front
…and 49 more, not listed.
The Aporia
