In short:
The hospitality industry has launched a campaign warning Australians of critical worker shortages if skilled migration is cut.
asserted
migration → launch → shortages
One Nation, the Coalition and the government have all pledged to slash migration numbers, but none have provided modelling of the economic impact.
asserted
none → pledge → impact
New research shows more than 70 per cent of businesses owners think workers born overseas are needed to fill roles.
asserted
workers → show → roles
The hospitality industry is the latest sector to push against sweeping cuts to migration, in a social media campaign depicting an Australia in which crucial jobs are left vacant due to a lack of migrant workers.
asserted
jobs → push → workers
The AI-generated clip by the Australian Hotel Association (AHA) sets the scene for an Australia with a depleted workforce, depicting empty coffee counters, hotels where guests clean their own rooms, and elderly people saying goodbye to their carers.
AHA chief executive Stephen Ferguson said while businesses overwhelmingly wanted to hire "Australians first", there was already not enough people to fill vacancies.
"We have 7,000 chef and cook vacancies today.
asserted
We → generate → vacancies
How many will that be in a year's time?" he said.
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he → say → time
"All the major political parties have now issued migration policies, but none of them have included the economic impact on the cuts they are proposing".
asserted
they → issue → cuts
More than 70 per cent of business owners agreed workers born overseas were important to filling critical roles, according to new research from the Federation of Ethnic Communities' Councils of Australia (FECCA).
uncertain
workers → agree → Australia
Chief executive Prerana Mehta said the AHA ad highlighted the critical role migrant workers played in the economy.
asserted
workers → say → economy
"It is assisting individuals and members of the public to understand the impact that slashing migration would have, not just on the economy, but more broadly on their everyday lives," she said.
asserted
she → assist → lives
Growing chorus of voices against migration cuts
In August, big business and mining groups raised the alarm on weaknesses in the domestic workforce and warned Australia needed a steady flow of migrants to deliver on a number of projects already in the pipeline.
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Australia → grow → pipeline
Earlier in the year, South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas admonished the major parties for engaging in a "political race to the bottom" with One Nation on migration policy.
asserted
Malinauskas → admonish → policy
One Nation is proposing net negative migration for three years before capping it below 130,000, while the Coalition would cut net migration to 100,000 for two years before gradually increasing it to 160,000.
asserted
Coalition → propose → 160,000
Labor, meanwhile, is targeting 225,000 a year by 2028.
asserted
Labor → target → 2028
Labor:
The government is aiming for 245,000 net overseas migration (NOM) by June next year, and 225,000 by the middle of 2028.
asserted
government → aim → 2028
Those figures were forecast in the budget and are now a target.
asserted
figures → forecast → budget
In March, the NOM was 292,100, according to figures released last month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
uncertain
NOM → accord → Statistics
The Coalition has announced an annual NOM target of 100,000 for the first two years if it wins the election.
asserted
it → announce → election
It will aim for 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth year.
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It → aim → year
The minor party unveiled a policy to slash immigration by 750,000 over three years, pushing the NOM into negative territory.
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party → unveil → territory
After that, it would aim for a "ceiling" of 130,000, to be reviewed every year.
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it → aim → 130,000
Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume said she had spoken with the AHA and was confident it understood the Coalition's position, saying Australia risked becoming a "guest worker economy" with an "imported underclass".
asserted
Australia → say → underclass
"That's not who we are, that is not Australian values," she said.
asserted
she → say → ?
Immigration minister Tony Burke said the government was taking a "sensible approach to slowing immigration", with migrants critical to the workforce.
asserted
migrants → say → workforce
"Australia doesn't just benefit from migrant workers.
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Australia → benefit → workers
We depend on them," he said.
asserted
he → depend → them
"We need them to keep our hospitals and aged care homes open.
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them → need → hospitals
We need them to build homes.
asserted
them → need → homes
We need them to work in hospitality and agriculture."
asserted
them → need → hospitality
Independent Senator David Pocock said the migration debate was too focused on overall numbers rather than addressing workforce shortages, saying any reduction in migration should be accompanied by a focused approach to plugging skills gaps.
asserted
reduction → say → gaps
Critics online have said the ad reduces migrant workers to roles such as cleaners and baristas, overlooking those working in professions like engineering and healthcare, while depicting the people affected by service shortages as overwhelmingly white.
asserted
ad → say → shortages
According to the Department of Home Affairs, more than half of GPs and nurses in Australia were born overseas.
uncertain
half → accord → Australia
Majority of business leaders see economic benefit of migrants
In September, FECCA virtually surveyed 500 business leaders across several sectors nationwide to gauge sentiment towards migration levels, multiculturalism and the economy.
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FECCA → see → levels
The data, obtained by the ABC, found 87 per cent of those surveyed saw multiculturalism as an "economic strength", critical to growing trade, connecting with overseas networks and accessing skilled trades.
asserted
cent → obtain → trades
Two-thirds said multiculturalism made the economy "stronger".
asserted
economy → say → ?
Those surveyed reported concern about Australia becoming less welcoming to migrants, with 37 per cent fearing that would result in lost access to skilled workers.
asserted
that → survey → workers
Ms Mehta said business sentiments made it clear governments could not simply "stop migration" due to its impact on multiple sectors.
uncertain
governments → say → sectors
"I think our economy will be crippled … and small businesses, particularly, are going to be bearing the brunt of some of the policy inferences that are being made," she said.
asserted
she → think → inferences
The Aporia
