Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC due to reports that it might be pressured by the US, but there are no indications of such pressure from Washington. The US has secured control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves through a recent agreement. Leaving OPEC would remove Venezuela from the organization where major oil-producing countries set collective strategy and weaken its claim to solidarity with other producers. By leaving, Venezuela would gain nothing in terms of increased output, but it could align with US companies' interests by removing production quotas.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-08,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Venezuela's move to leave OPEC has been met with skepticism, as it would be a reversal of its historical role in founding the organization. In 1960, Venezuela was one of five founders of OPEC, along with other oil-rich states, which sought to regain control over their own resources and counter Western oil majors known as the "Seven Sisters." However, US President Donald Trump removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in 2026, leaving an interim government in charge, and subsequently negotiated a deal that grants Washington significant influence over Venezuela's oil access, production, and exports. This agreement allows the US to control the sale of Venezuelan oil, and claims to have secured majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves, exceeding the approximately 46 billion barrels held by the US itself. Leaving OPEC now would be a "bitter historical irony" for Venezuela, as it would essentially mean giving up its control over its own resources.
Written for “Venezuela Oil Crisis Deepens” on 2026-09-08,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
It is one of the group’s five founders, present when the organization was conceived in Baghdad in 1960 as a counterweight to the “Seven Sisters,” the Western oil majors that held the upper hand over much of the world’s oil supply.
asserted
that → conceive → supply
Oil-rich states shared a common goal back then: regaining control over their own resources.
asserted
states → share → resources
US President Donald Trump removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, leaving the country in the hands of an interim government, and made little effort to hide his intentions.
asserted
Trump → remove → intentions
Trump said the US will control the sale of Venezuelan oil, while a recent agreement grants Washington sweeping influence over access, production, and exports.
asserted
agreement → say → access
For Caracas to walk away from OPEC now would therefore represent a bitter historical irony.
asserted
walk → walk → irony
Reports that Venezuela was considering leaving OPEC emerged just before the White House announced what it called “the biggest oil deal in world history,” claiming the agreement secured US majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven reserves.
asserted
agreement → consider → reserves
That would exceed the roughly 46 billion barrels of proven reserves held by the US itself.
asserted
That → exceed → US
There are no indications that Washington is pressuring Venezuela to leave OPEC — just as there was no US intervention in the UAE’s decision to leave the group.
asserted
Washington → be → group
Rather, Venezuela’s interim government appears to be weighing options that align with the interests of US companies considering investments in the country, which would not want to be constrained by OPEC production quotas.
asserted
which → appear → quotas
But what does Venezuela gain by leaving OPEC?
asserted
Venezuela → gain → OPEC
Under the current arrangement, Venezuela, along with Iran and Libya, is exempt from production targets because all three countries faced sanctions or conflict that have disrupted output.
asserted
that → face → output
There is also an understanding that quotas will not apply until production has sufficiently recovered.
asserted
production → be → ?
Leaving OPEC in the near term removes no meaningful obstacle to increasing Venezuelan output today.
asserted
Leaving → leave → output
What Caracas would lose is a seat at the table where major oil-producing countries set collective strategy.
asserted
countries → lose → strategy
It would also weaken its claim to solidarity with a bloc created explicitly to prevent producers from being played off against one another by outside powers.
uncertain
It → weaken → powers
That matters even more at a moment when control over Venezuela’s oil resources is being claimed by the world’s most powerful country.
asserted
control → matter → country
For OPEC, Venezuela’s departure would be another blow to cohesion following the UAE’s exit in May and could encourage other members to question the value of staying.
Further complicating the scene is the reality that the US benefits from OPEC.
uncertain
US → follow → OPEC
US shale producers need an average WTI price of roughly $66 a barrel to profitably drill new wells, according to the Dallas Fed’s most recent energy survey.
uncertain
producers → need → survey
Trump understands this dynamic: His administration leaned on Riyadh to slash production in 2020 when collapsing prices threatened US drillers.
asserted
prices → understand → drillers
A Venezuela freed from future OPEC discipline and adding barrels to an already well-supplied market could eventually work against that same domestic interest.
uncertain
Venezuela → free → interest
Some US officials see Venezuelan oil as a new source of supply to top up the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the heavy, high-sulfur Merey crude isn’t technically viable.
asserted
crude → see → Reserve
More importantly, Venezuela’s oil industry can’t be restored with a single infusion of capital.
asserted
industry → restore → capital
It will require sustained investment over decades to rebuild drilling, gathering, and export infrastructure degraded by years of underinvestment.
asserted
It → require → underinvestment
The type of deal that spans multiple US administrations.
asserted
that → span → administrations
Even if all goes to Trump’s plans, the additional production attributable to the new agreement could be relatively modest — perhaps around 200,000 barrels per day.
uncertain
production → go → day
Caracas should be sober about what leaving OPEC would accomplish.
asserted
leaving → leave → OPEC
Remaining inside OPEC costs Venezuela little today.
asserted
Remaining → remain → little
Abandoning the group at a moment when sovereignty over its own reserves is more contested than at any point since the 1970s would surrender political leverage without delivering additional export revenue the country desperately needs.
asserted
country → abandon → revenue
Notable
- The Trump administration hasn’t been transparent about how Venezuela’s oil revenue is being managed.
asserted
revenue → manage → ?
A new “corrupt successor regime” could be entrenched without “accountability mechanisms or a clear democratic roadmap,” writes Roxanna Vigil, a former sanctions policy advisor at the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
uncertain
Vigil → entrench → Control
