Story summary
The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in north London is taking place on Thursday to replace former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who resigned from his seat. The race pits Labour candidate Dani Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with polls showing a close contest. Historically, the constituency has been held by Labour since its formation in 1983, but Polanski hopes to break this streak and secure a seat in Parliament for the Greens.
Polanski's campaign recently faced controversy after his party passed a motion at their conference asserting that "Zionism is racism," which he abstained from voting on. This incident has caused tension among voters, though Polanski has stated that he will not exclude anyone based on religious or communal affiliation. Meanwhile, Labour PM Andy Burnham has been urging support for Abdi-Wali to counter the Green Party's growing influence, especially following their strong performance in local elections earlier this year.
Voters are being asked to decide whether they want a continued Labour presence with Abdi-Wali or if it’s time for a "Green voice" to push for issues like rent controls and public ownership of utilities. The outcome could be pivotal for both Polanski's leadership within the Green Party and Burnham's efforts to restore faith in Labour among left-wing voters, particularly those who shifted towards the Greens due to recent political events such as the Gaza war.
Written for “Holborn By-election” on 2026-10-10,
grounded in this article and the 46 other(s) covering the same event.
The most important thing about Zack Polanski’s humiliation in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is it represents a resounding rejection of racism and hate.
asserted
it → represent → racism
Less than a week before polling day, his Green Party had passed a resolution effectively advocating the eradication of the state of Israel.
asserted
Party → pass → Israel
A second motion, extending protection to Jews attending their place of worship, had also been roundly defeated.
asserted
motion → extend → worship
Tellingly, Polanski didn’t take part in the vote himself, claiming he was focusing on the by-election.
asserted
he → take → election
Despite all this, in the last days of campaigning, Polanski boasted he was on course for victory.
asserted
he → boast → victory
But North London voters had other ideas, and united to stand in the way of his march to Westminster.
asserted
voters → have → Westminster
To properly understand the scale of that repudiation, you need to crunch the figures.
asserted
you → understand → figures
At the last election, Sir Keir Starmer won 48.9 per cent of the vote.
asserted
Starmer → win → vote
At yesterday's by-election, Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali secured 45.2 per cent – virtually the same vote share.
asserted
candidate → secure → cent
In 2024, the Greens secured just under 11 per cent.
asserted
Greens → secure → cent
And it’s true that in yesterday’s poll this rose to 32.8 per cent.
asserted
this → ’ → cent
But that 2024 progressive vote was distorted by the presence of independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, a radical Corbynite and leader of the self-styled Camden Community Alliance.
asserted
vote → distort → Alliance
He had come second in the seat with almost 19 per cent of the vote.
asserted
He → come → vote
This time, Feinstein threw his weight, and activists, behind Polanski.
asserted
Feinstein → throw → Polanski
But the reality is this: The Greens' leader specifically waited to target a North London constituency because he thought it represented his best chance of election to Parliament.
asserted
it → wait → Parliament
Zack Polanski during the count declaration in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election this morning
It was a seat that was previously represented by the most unpopular Labour Prime Minister in British political history.
asserted
that → represent → history
Starmer, ousted by his own party, subsequently flounced out of Westminster, leaving his constituents in the lurch.
asserted
Starmer → oust → lurch
It’s hard to think of a more advantageous set of circumstances for a radical insurgent seeking to plant their flag.
asserted
It → ’ → flag
And all Polanski managed to do was run it through his own foot.
asserted
Polanski → manage → foot
Though the most important thing was the public’s firm and instant rejection of the Greens’ anti-Semitic agenda, Holborn and St Pancras has far wider political implications.
asserted
Holborn → have → implications
Since being elected leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has pursued a single strategy: moving his party to the Left in the hope of shoring up that flank and encouraging disillusioned liberal progressives and former traditional Labour voters to return to the fold.
asserted
Burnham → elect → fold
The Holborn and St Pancras vote cements the current trajectory of British politics.
asserted
vote → cement → politics
Labour’s support is returning.
asserted
support → return → ?
Its poll lead over Reform and the Tories is increasing.
asserted
lead → increase → Reform
The vote share for the Liberal Democrats nearly halved.
asserted
share → halve → Democrats
But it shows that an unofficial, yet significant, Lab/Lib Dem alliance is forming – one in which the parties are prepared to embrace tactical voting in the face of a mutual threat.
asserted
parties → show → threat
The Tory vote stood up well.
asserted
vote → stand → ?
They jumped to third in the seat, providing further evidence of their incremental recovery.
asserted
They → jump → recovery
Reform, meanwhile, continued their decline, slipping back on their 2024 result.
asserted
Reform → continue → result
And Restore – whose activists were subjected to unacceptable abuse while canvassing – came above George Galloway and within 300 votes of the Lib Dems.
asserted
activists → subject → Dems
Put all that together and you get the following picture.
asserted
you → put → picture
Burnham’s 'Lean Left' strategy is working spectacularly.
asserted
strategy → lean → ?
Labour is now approaching 30 per cent in the polls.
asserted
Labour → approach → polls
Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali, seen being hugged by a supporter after her victory, secured 45.2 per cent in the by-election – virtually the same vote share as in the 2024 election
Sagal Abdi-Wali is congratulated by Labour Education Secretary Lucy Powell following her win
Meanwhile, the Greens and their leader are now utterly toxic in the eyes of the vast majority of the electorate.
asserted
Greens → see → electorate
Polanski’s party is hopelessly divided following its descent into overt anti-Semitism, and will now collapse in the polls.
asserted
party → divide → polls
That will give an additional boost to Labour, probably nudging the party closer to 31-32 per cent.
asserted
That → give → cent
At the same time, Reform’s brand is similarly toxified, tainted as it is by the party’s embrace of ethno-nationalism and an endless series of funding scandals.
asserted
it → toxifie → scandals
That means Nigel Farage’s own poll collapse will continue.
asserted
collapse → mean → ?
But, in addition, it will further boost anti-Reform tactical voting in their Labour and Tory-facing seats.
asserted
it → boost → seats
That will further assist the Conservatives’ recovery.
asserted
That → assist → recovery
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
.jpg?width=1200&auto=webp&quality=75)
