The Silver Bulletin's ELWAY forecasting model has undergone significant updates and refinements for the 2026 season. The key improvements include a revamp of the QBERT component to give quarterbacks more credit for completions, drops, and penalties, such as pass interference calls, which are now treated as completed passes. According to the article, these changes will benefit quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, who was previously penalized by not being credited for DPIs in last year's model. The updates aim to improve ELWAY's performance and accuracy in predicting game scores and player statistics.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-08,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
2026 changes to ELWAY and QBERT
ELWAY was an ambitious model when we launched it last year.
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we → launch → it
It already incorporated a number of layers: rolling team ratings dating back to the dawn of the NFL, gradually adding in advanced stats as they became available; quarterbacks in the form of QBERT; off-season roster movement; and a wide array of adjustments for factors such as injuries and home-field advantage.
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they → incorporate → injuries
But ELWAY was a bit like a fancy new house that had never really been lived in.
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that → live → house
It got some of the big headlines right — including becoming an early fan of the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.
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some → get → Champion
But because ELWAY had less tenure than other Silver Bulletin models, some parts felt less polished or slightly unfinished.
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parts → have → models
So we put a lot of work into ELWAY and QBERT this year.
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we → put → ELWAY
Most of this doesn’t change its architectural blueprint, but ELWAY’s original intentions are now implemented more effectively, we hope.
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we → change → blueprint
AI tools were quite helpful for performing a thorough audit of its code and uncovering a few inefficiencies and even some bugs.
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tools → perform → inefficiencies
Most of these are on the order of minor nuisances — the toilet in the upstairs bathroom doesn’t always flush — but collectively, we expect this cleanup to considerably improve ELWAY’s performance.1
Apart from this debugging, most of our work this off-season was concentrated in three areas:
A refit of QBERT;
Switching from efficiency per play to efficiency per drive as ELWAY’s main layer for assessing team quality;
And much more detailed handling of injuries.
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most → flush → injuries
If this text sounds familiar, most of it is duplicated from the QBERT landing page as of when we launched it this season.
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we → sound → it
We are quite confident that drops should be attributed to the WR, not the quarterback.
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drops → attribute → WR
Not only does QBERT now give a QB credit for a completion on a drop, but we also estimate the additional yards and touchdowns (and even the avoided interceptions2) that would have resulted from the caught pass.
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that → give → pass
QBs who had fewer drops than expected, like Drake Maye last year, suffer a slight penalty.
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who → have → penalty
Yards gained on pass interference calls deserve credit.
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Yards → gain → credit
Last year’s model ignored penalties.
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model → ignore → penalties
But having collected penalty data, we now simply treat defensive pass interference (DPI) calls as completed passes, giving a QB credit for the completion, the first down, and the air yards associated with the “catch”.
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we → collect → catch
This benefits QBs like Dak Prescott, who had 268 yards essentially erased from his stat line last year on DPIs, by far the highest in the league.
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yards → benefit → league
Furthermore, intentional grounding calls are now treated as incompletions worth minus-10 yards.
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calls → treat → incompletions
Other QB-related penalties are still ignored because we’ve found they don’t provide much signal.
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they → relate → signal
QBERT likes rushing QBs more than the consensus, but not all QB rushes are created equal.
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rushes → like → consensus
We now give far less credit to TDs from sneak plays versus other rushing TDs and also apply a penalty term to sneaks to ensure that they don’t have positive expected value relative to other QB plays.
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they → give → plays
Over the past three years, two QBs have benefited disproportionately from sneaks: Jalen Hurts (30 sneak TDs) and Josh Allen (21).
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QBs → benefit → sneaks
Isolating sneaks does result in slightly more credit to non-sneak rushing TDs, however.
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Isolating → isolate → TDs
Pocket passers were being undervalued.
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passers → undervalue → ?
Last year, the coefficients used in QBERT were fitted on data from 2016-2024.
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coefficients → use → 2016
We’ve now collected advanced-stat data going back to 2006 and refitted QBERT over a larger sample.
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We → collect → sample
This matters because 2016-2024 was a highly favorable era for mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson, Allen and Mahomes, whereas the late 2000s and early ‘10s were more favorable to pocket passers (Brady, Brees, Manning).
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2000s → matter → passers
This makes QBERT more robust across eras and also brings it more in line with the conventional wisdom, helping modern pocket passers like Stafford.
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QBERT → make → Stafford
Touchdowns now matter less, and the process that produces TDs matters more.
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that → matter → TDs
Last year’s version of QBERT was essentially pegged to ESPN QBR.
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version → peg → QBR
QBR is a smart system, much better than traditional NFL passer ratings, and still serves as an important scaffold for our system.
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QBR → serve → system
Our reverse-engineering of QBR suggests that it places an extremely high value on touchdowns, equivalent to something like 45 yards per passing TD.
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it → suggest → TD
Other systems like ANY/A assign less than half as much credit to TDs.
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systems → assign → TDs
While there is some persistent skill in red zone play, TDs are both noisy and opportunity-dependent, and TD rates don’t “travel” all that well when a QB changes teams.
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QB → be → teams
Long story short: the reward given to TDs has been reduced by 50 percent, with credit instead flowing into categories like first downs that better predict touchdowns in the long run.
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that → give → run
The 2025 version of QBERT accounted for the game script, giving more credit to quarterbacks who establish early leads.
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who → account → leads
The rationale was that offenses are less efficient with a lead late in the game because it’s rational for them to play conservatively and run out the clock.
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them → ’ → clock
However, upon review, essentially all of the difference stems from replacing quarterback plays with handoffs to running backs.
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all → stem → backs
Thus, we’ve removed the game-script variables.
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we → remove → variables
Mostly, they were giving QBs extra credit for being on good teams, undermining QBERT’s goal of separating QB performance from team performance.
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they → give → performance
…and 274 more, not listed.
