As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App.
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it → view → App
The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change, too.
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some → update → text
Last year, we built QBERT, our quarterback rating system.
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we → build → QBERT
It serves a dual purpose:
Rating every QB since 1950 on a level playing field, taking advantage of advanced stats data for recent QBs while being as fair as possible to historical QBs for whom this data isn’t available;
Projecting future QB performance to feed into ELWAY, our NFL projection model.
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performance → serve → ELWAY
The 2026 version of ELWAY will launch very soon.
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version → launch → ELWAY
We don’t think there’s anything quite like QBERT1 out there.
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We → think → QBERT1
Still, quarterbacks typically round into form in their sophomore seasons.
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quarterbacks → round → seasons
For instance, this page now includes a mini-interactive that lets you compare quarterbacks from throughout NFL history and see how their QBERT ratings have evolved over time.
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ratings → include → time
Here’s Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes:
Or Joe Montana, Dan Marino and John Elway himself.
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Allen → ’ → Mahomes
We’ve also put a lot of work into QBERT on the backend.
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We → put → backend
Last year, I argued that Drake Maye ought to have been the NFL MVP rather than Matthew Stafford.
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Maye → argue → Stafford
But the new version of QBERT thinks that was a bad take and Stafford had the better season.
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Stafford → think → season
(Note, though, that the chart below combines regular-season and playoff data, so Maye’s mediocre playoffs are a factor here.)
What’s changed in the system?
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What → note → system
We are quite confident that drops should be attributed to the WR, not the quarterback.2
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drops → attribute → WR
Not only does QBERT now give a QB credit for a completion on a drop; we also estimate the additional yards and touchdowns (and even the avoided interceptions3) that would have resulted from the caught pass.
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that → give → pass
QBs who had fewer drops than expected, like Maye last year, suffer a slight penalty.4
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who → have → Maye
Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix had outlier-high drop rates, on the other hand, and benefit substantially from this new treatment.
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Lawrence → have → treatment
Yards gained on pass interference calls deserve credit.
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Yards → gain → credit
Last year’s model ignored penalties.
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model → ignore → penalties
But having collected penalty data, we now simply treat defensive pass interference (DPI) calls as completed passes, giving a QB credit for the completion, the first down, and the air yards associated with the “catch”.
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we → collect → catch
This benefits QBs like Dak Prescott, who had 268 yards essentially erased from his stat line last year on DPIs, by far the highest in the league.
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yards → benefit → league
Furthermore, intentional grounding calls are now treated as incompletions.5 Other QB-related penalties are still ignored because we’ve found they don’t provide much signal.
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they → treat → signal
QBERT likes rushing QBs more than the consensus, but not all QB rushes are created equal.
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rushes → like → consensus
We now give far less credit to TDs from sneak plays versus other rushing TDs and also apply a penalty term to sneaks to ensure that they don’t have positive expected value relative to other QB plays.
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they → give → plays
Over the past three years, two QBs have benefited disproportionately from sneaks: Jalen Hurts (30 sneak TDs) and Josh Allen (21).
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QBs → benefit → sneaks
Isolating sneaks does result in slightly more credit to non-sneak rushing TDs, however.6
Pocket passers were being undervalued.
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passers → isolate → TDs
Last year, the coefficients used in QBERT were fitted on data from 2016-2024.
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coefficients → use → 2016
We’ve now collected advanced-stat data going back to 20067 and refitted QBERT over a larger sample.
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We → collect → sample
This matters because 2016-2024 was a highly favorable era for mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson, Allen and Mahomes, whereas the late 2000s and early ‘10s were more favorable to pocket passers (Brady, Brees, Manning).
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2000s → matter → passers
This makes QBERT more robust across eras and also brings it more in line with the conventional wisdom, helping modern pocket passers like Stafford.
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QBERT → make → Stafford
Touchdowns now matter less, and the process that produces TDs matters more.
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that → matter → TDs
Last year’s version of QBERT was essentially pegged to ESPN QBR.
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version → peg → QBR
QBR is a smart system, much better than traditional NFL passer ratings, and still serves as an important scaffold for our system.
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QBR → serve → system
Our reverse-engineering of QBR suggests that it places an extremely high value on touchdowns, equivalent to something like 45 yards per passing TD.8
uncertain
it → suggest → passing
Other systems like ANY/A assign less than half as much credit to TDs.
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systems → assign → TDs
While there is some persistent skill in red zone play, TDs are both noisy and opportunity-dependent, and TD rates don’t “travel” all that well when a QB changes teams.
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QB → be → teams
Long story short: the reward given to TDs has been reduced by 50 percent, with credit instead flowing into categories like first downs that better predict touchdowns in the long run.
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that → give → run
The 2025 version of QBERT accounted for the game script, giving more credit to quarterbacks who establish early leads.
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who → account → leads
The rationale was that offenses are less efficient with a lead late in the game because it’s rational for them to play conservatively and run out the clock.9
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them → ’ → clock.9
However, upon review, essentially all of the difference stems from replacing quarterback plays with handoffs to running backs.
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all → stem → backs
…and 34 more, not listed.
The Aporia
