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The Guardian
· collected 2026-10-09 · by Peter Walker Senior political correspondent
At the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Kemi Badenoch’s policy document, "The Right Way," overestimated the cost of achieving net zero emissions by nearly £500 billion due to a spreadsheet error. This mistake inflated an original estimate from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) of £478 billion to £957 billion and later to £1.4 trillion in the document, doubling the actual costs. The CCC emphasized that their most recent analysis suggests the cost would be around £110 billion, or about £4 billion annually. Carbon Brief identified the error, which may have originated from a think tank report or an article in Spectator without verification.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-09,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
In an apparent spreadsheet error, Kemi Badenoch’s flagship policy document at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham overestimated the cost of achieving net zero emissions by nearly £500bn. The document justified scrapping the UK's 2050 net zero target set under Theresa May by citing estimates from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) that ranged widely but specifically mentioned a gross economic cost of £1.4tn, reducing to £957bn when savings were factored in. However, the actual CCC report figures total only £478bn, indicating an error due to double-counting on the spreadsheet. This mistake undermines claims about the significant economic costs associated with net zero policies and calls into question the Conservative Party's justification for abandoning their previous climate commitments.
Written for “UK Net Zero Cost Error” on 2026-10-09,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted
verbatim and was checked against the article text before being
stored, so you can find it in the original.
Leaning: leans left for article 67693 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-09
Claims extracted
19
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
5%
1 of 19 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
68.4
corrections and hedging in what we collected;
not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Kemi Badenoch’s flagship party conference policy document overestimated the cost of net zero by nearly £500bn, seemingly after someone accidentally double-counted figures on a spreadsheet.
asserted
someone → overestimate → spreadsheet
The apparent error appears in a chapter on net zero in The Right Way, a 100-page policy document produced for the Conservative conference in Birmingham.
asserted
error → appear → Birmingham
Badenoch repeatedly used the phrase in her main speech.
asserted
Badenoch → use → speech
Justifying the Conservatives’ decision to scrap the target of the UK reaching net zero emissions by 2050, introduced under Theresa May, the document says that estimates of how much this would cost the economy “have varied enormously”.
uncertain
this → justify → economy
It goes on: “In 2020, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimated that its route to net zero would cost £957bn.”
asserted
route → go → 957bn
It cites the Sixth Carbon Budget produced by the CCC, the government’s climate change advisers, saying the report put gross economic costs at £1.4tn, falling to £957bn when savings were taken into account.
asserted
savings → cite → account
However, the figures in the report in fact total £478bn, half of what the Tory document said.
asserted
document → total → what
The error appears to have arisen because a tally of all the costs in a CCC spreadsheet from the document also included the row showing totals for each individual column, thus doubling it.
asserted
tally → appear → it
A CCC spokesperson said: “We don’t recognise this number.
asserted
We → say → number
The committee has previously offered to meet with Ms Badenoch and talk her through our advice.
asserted
committee → offer → advice
”
The committee’s most recent analysis puts the expected cost of achieving net zero by 2050 at about £110bn, or about £4bn a year – 0.2% of GDP.
asserted
analysis → put → GDP
The error was spotted by the publication Carbon Brief, which informed the Guardian.
asserted
which → spot → Guardian
It is possible the Conservatives copied the figure without checking it.
asserted
Conservatives → copy → it
It appears to have been published in a report by the rightwing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs and also included in an article in the Spectator.
asserted
It → appear → Spectator
The Conservative document says it is intended to be a precise diagnosis of the UK’s problems.
asserted
it → say → problems
It is modelled in part on The Right Approach, produced by Margaret Thatcher’s Tory party in 1976, which set out some of the economic ideas later used in the 1979 election.
asserted
which → model → election
In a foreword, Badenoch notes that “as an engineer”, she is used to correctly diagnosing issues so they can be addressed.
asserted
they → note → issues
A later part of the report says: “To fix a problem we must first have an accurate understanding of what is causing it.”
asserted
what → say → it
The Conservatives and Badenoch’s office were contacted for comment.
asserted
Conservatives → contact → comment
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