How NATO is prepping in the Baltic skies for a possible confrontation with Russia
While jets patrol overhead, Canada is tasked with holding the ground below
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Canada → preppe → ground
When Latvians cast their ballots in a national election this past weekend, many did so without realizing that three countries — Turkey, Spain and Italy — all had fighter jets patrolling the grey skies high above them for any overt Russian attempts to disrupt the vote.
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jets → cast → vote
"Nothing flies without authorization in the alliance airspace," said Capt. Antonio Moncebo, a Spanish F-18 pilot whose squadron was operating out of a base in Estonia next door.
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squadron → fly → Estonia
So when NATO identifies a possible threat, "we trigger a scramble, and we seek them and shoot them down."
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we → identify → them
Spanish fighter pilot Antonio Moncebo spoke to CBC News at a NATO airbase in Lithuania.
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Moncebo → speak → Lithuania
While many NATO military planners believe Russia is unlikely to deliberately start a war with the Western alliance, if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to test NATO’s resolve with a lower-threshold provocation, the Baltic states could be vulnerable.
uncertain
states → believe → provocation
From suspected Russian arson attacks at high-tech defence facilities in Estonia to a foiled cargo plane bombing plot in Germany, Putin's intelligence services are increasingly pushing past traditional red lines in an effort to weaken Western resolve to aid Ukraine.
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services → suspect → Ukraine
NATO jets from Italy, Spain and Turkey fly in a tight formation above Latvia, as part of a demonstration by the alliance's air command.
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jets → fly → command
Justin Bronk, with the British military think-tank RUSI, says Putin may believe there's an opportunity to exploit U.S President Donald Trump’s often antagonistic relationship with Europe.
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Putin → say → Europe
"Clearly at the moment, there's a lot of concern about the potential for Russian direct aggression against NATO members in order to presumably try … to demonstrate that the alliance won't come to the military aid of one of its member states," said Bronk.
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Bronk → be → states
Members of the media, including a CBC videographer, perch at the edge of the ramp in the back of a Lithuanian military aircraft to photograph NATO jets in the sky.
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Members → include → sky
The photographers were tethered with harnesses so they wouldn't fall out.
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they → tether → harnesses
Whether NATO is prepared to counter potential Russian aggression is an existential question.
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is → prepare → aggression
Lieut.-Gen. Guillaume Thomas, who commands the air operations over the Baltic states, dismisses any talk that a Trump-led U.S. can’t be relied upon.
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U.S. → command → talk
"I am completely confident in the support of U.S. forces in protecting the alliance.
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I → protect → alliance
I have no doubt every day I can see the development of the U.S. force and I have no doubt about their support, their continuous support."
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I → have → support
To prove its readiness, NATO, which is anchored by the principle of collective defence, recently invited a small group of media, including CBC News, to witness the air shield over the Baltic states first-hand.
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which → prove → states
High above Lithuania, aircrew lowered the back ramp of a military transport plane in mid-flight, allowing journalists a dizzying, close-up view of Italian Eurofighters, Spanish F-18s and Turkish fighter jets flying wing to wing.
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aircrew → lower → wing
Thomas says such tight formations are a visual manifestation of a deeper, more profound shift in how the alliance secures its eastern flank.
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alliance → say → flank
Spanish and Italian fighter jets fly in a tight formation next to a Lithuanian military plane carrying members of the media.
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jets → fly → media
"It was a shift in mindset to go from an air policing mission to an air defence mission," he said.
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he → go → mission
"That enabled us to be more reactive, more flexible, more agile, to demonstrate our ability to protect our air spaces.
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That → enable → spaces
But NATO’s air shield remains a work in progress.
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shield → remain → progress
Russia’s successful and repeated use of highly destructive jet-powered drones in Ukraine has forced Baltic nations to rapidly rethink their own domestic defences.
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use → repeat → defences
Latvia is now actively constructing what it calls a "drone wall" along its heavily forested eastern border.
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it → construct → border
"It consists of integrated radar, interceptors and command-and-control systems so that we're able to detect and intercept, if needed, a hostile drone," explained Airis Rikveilis, state secretary for the Latvian Ministry of Defence.
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Rikveilis → consist → Defence
Police officers stand at the site of a Russian drone strike on the North Bridge in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 4.
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officers → stand → Oct.
NATO planners admit that building a flawless shield is mathematically impossible.
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building → admit → shield
While heavy fighter jets can intercept larger threats, they represent a severe cost mismatch when deployed against tiny, low-flying surveillance drones.
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they → intercept → drones
On the tarmac in Lithuania, crews flew a new Latvian-designed anti-drone system called Blaze.
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crews → fly → system
It features a propeller-driven interceptor equipped with cameras and a high explosive warhead that can be used to crash into Russian drones as far as 10 kilometres away.
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that → feature → drones
But Blaze is only just being introduced and its use at the moment isn't widespread.
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use → introduce → moment
Rikveilis, the Latvian defence official, acknowledges more work is needed to complete preparations but denies drone defence is a NATO weak spot.
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defence → acknowledge → preparations
The threat of Russian drones "is a new one, it's an evolving one, but at the same time it is being taken care of."
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it → evolve → care
The Canadian connection
Holding the vulnerable ground underneath any of NATO's defensive gaps falls squarely on Canada.
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Holding → hold → Canada
Over the last decade, Ottawa’s commitment to the region has quietly scaled up from a localized battle group to full brigade leadership, placing up to 3,000 Canadian troops right on Russia’s doorstep.
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commitment → scale → doorstep
As commander of Task Force Latvia (TFL), Canadian Brig.-Gen. Mason Stalker oversees Canada's military presence in the Baltic region.
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Stalker → oversee → region
For the newly appointed Canadian commander in this theatre, the immediate focus is keeping the multi-nation force integrated and lethal.
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force → appoint → theatre
"My concern always is making sure that we have the combat power necessary to basically make sure our NATO commitments are adhered to," says Canadian Brig.-Gen. Mason Stalker.
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Stalker → make → power
"And we do.
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we → do → ?
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
