The Coalition's long-awaited migration plan has been revealed, completing the set of competing policies being offered by the government, the opposition and One Nation, who have risen in the polls in particular due to the party's promise to drive immigration to its lowest levels in Australia's history.
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who → await → history
Migration rates to Australia since 2019 have been much higher than many comparable countries, with more than double the growth in population from migration compared to the United Kingdom, and three times Germany.
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rates → compare → Kingdom
One Nation has vowed to cut migration to negative levels in its first years, the Coalition has promised to temporarily halve migration to 100,000, and Labor wants migration rates to return to the longer-term trend of 225,000 — but it quickly gets more complicated.
Every attempt to lower migration removes workers from some sector, risks hitting already slow economic growth, and potentially puts already in-need industries like health and aged care into deeper workforce shortages.
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attempt → vow → shortages
One Nation, the Coalition and the federal government have each sought to strike a different balance — with One Nation also explicitly stating its intentions to up-end migration to Australia as part of its policy to end multiculturalism.
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Nation → seek → multiculturalism
What does each party want to do with migration levels?
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party → want → levels
The federal government, the Coalition and One Nation have all proposed net migration rates lower than today, though their plans differ significantly.
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plans → propose → today
One Nation has promised net negative migration for the first three years, before settling to a longer-term net migration ceiling of below 130,000.
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Nation → promise → 130,000
The party has vowed to cut net migration by 750,000 in its first three years in order to reach its goal of more people leaving the country than arriving, providing "breathing space" for housing construction to catch up.
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construction → vow → space
Spread evenly, it would amount to a net migration rate of negative 25,000 based on Treasury's migration forecasts for those years.
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it → Spread → years
The Coalition has proposed to more than halve net migration for two years to 100,000, 130,000 in its third year and 160,000 in its fourth year.
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Coalition → propose → year
After that, net migration would be tied to the pace of housing completions.
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migration → tie → completions
Meanwhile, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has announced measures to achieve a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028, though there are no further cuts proposed in the future years when One Nation and the Coalition have both promised serious reductions.
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Nation → announce → reductions
That 225,000 a year figure was already forecast in the federal budget, but actual migration to Australia has repeatedly come in higher than forecast, and the politics around net overseas migration has changed.
Once considered more of an indicator, the government itself has now acknowledged that net overseas migration figure as a hard target it is committed to reaching.
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it → forecast → target
How do the parties plan to cut migration?
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parties → plan → migration
One Nation promises to achieve deep cuts by severely restricting international student visa places to just over 100,000 a year.
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Nation → promise → 100,000
That compares to about 290,000 visas granted to students last financial year.
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That → compare → students
Additionally, visas for families of international students and skilled migrants would be ended almost entirely.
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visas → end → students
There were just shy of 46,000 visas granted to family and dependents of students last financial year — all of those would have been refused except for roughly 6,500 partners and children attached to postgraduate researchers, who are exempt from the plan.
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who → be → plan
That commitment was effectively made by the federal government last month.
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commitment → make → government
In relation to skilled migrants, the most recent migration trend data showed fewer than half of the visas being granted under Australia's skilled worker program were actually for the workers Australia is seeking, like nurses and builders.
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Australia → show → nurses
Out of about 132,000 skilled worker visas issued in the 2025 financial year, 71,650 were actually granted to partners and children of those workers.
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71,650 → issue → workers
That would be cut to zero under One Nation.
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That → cut → Nation
The rest of the party's migration cuts would be achieved by deporting visa overstayers and other unlawful non-citizens, and clearing the backlog of people on bridging visas — generally people awaiting a decision on an application, or challenging a decision to refuse or cancel a visa.
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rest → achieve → visa
With migration playing a significant role in maintaining Australia's economy in recent years, critics warned migration cuts of that magnitude would drive the country into recession.
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cuts → play → recession
Senator Hanson responded that "a larger economic pie doesn't mean anything if individual Australians' slice of it is getting smaller".
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slice → respond → it
The Coalition will also target international student visa places, cutting commencements down from their current planning level of 295,000 a year to 240,000, and abolishing temporary graduate visas.
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Coalition → target → visas
More than 100,000 temporary graduate visas are issued every year, which typically allow people to live and work in Australia for up to three years after graduation depending on the qualification.
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people → issue → qualification
That would be ended by the Coalition with some limited exceptions.
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That → end → exceptions
The visas are meant to keep in-demand graduates in Australia while they search for work, but the Coalition says they are instead being used as a pathway to citizenship, with some people never working in the field they graduated from.
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they → mean → field
Like One Nation, the Coalition says it will clear the caseload of more than 400,000 people on bridging visas, mainly by requiring subsequent visa applications to be made offshore (except for working holiday-makers), which it says will "virtually eliminate" bridging visas.
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it → say → visas
The permanent humanitarian visa program would also be halved from 20,000 to 10,000, with the ability to temporarily lift that amount to respond to major incidents, like the Coalition did following the civil war in Syria in 2015.
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Coalition → halve → 2015
Its reductions in international students, temporary graduates and bridging visa holders would make space for more skilled workers, with construction workers to be "heavily prioritised" although net migration overall would still be at some of the lowest levels in Australia's history.
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migration → bridge → history
The Coalition says its plan is focused on reducing migration while improving the skills mix, rather than "simply cutting numbers without regard to the economic consequences".
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plan → say → consequences
The federal government has promised to end the practice of international students "visa hopping" to stay in Australia longer by requiring that students can only be granted a visa for further qualifications that are a higher level of study, such as moving from a bachelor degree to a masters.
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that → promise → masters
It is also limiting family visas for international students, except those from Pacific and South-East Asian nations, as well as dependents of students studying PhDs.
But it will not do the same for families of skilled workers, as promised by One Nation, warning that doing so could make it harder for Australia to get workers already in short supply.
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Australia → limit → supply
While One Nation and the Coalition have promised not to touch working holiday-maker visa levels, which are heavily depended on by farmers and regional communities, the federal government says it is tightening the second and third years of the scheme, reducing year-two visas by 12,000 places to 45,000, and year-three places by 31,000 places to just 5,000, with a ballot system to determine who can extend their stay.
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who → promise → stay
Finally, the government is establishing a team of 100 Border Force officials to assist in the removal of the roughly 77,000 visa overstayers in the country, as well as adding more facilities to hold overstayers awaiting deportation.
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government → establish → deportation
What does each party want to do with who comes to Australia?
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who → want → Australia
One Nation's proposal would cut the number of people coming to Australia who do not have a work-related purpose for migrating.
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who → cut → migrating
But the party is also campaigning on a platform of much higher standards for visa holders, with stricter punishments for those who breach visa conditions or Australia's laws.
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who → campaign → conditions
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
