In short:
The Coalition is being warned its migration plan would worsen skills shortages and damage the economy.
asserted
plan → warn → economy
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has acknowledged that some aged care workers would be affected though flagged "transition" plans for the regions.
asserted
workers → acknowledge → regions
The Coalition is yet to detail how many aged care workers would be affected and will wait until the election to release costings underpinning its claim that the migration plan is budget neutral.
uncertain
plan → detail → claim
The Coalition's plan to slash Australia's temporary migration program would damage the economy and push talented workers offshore, education and business groups have warned.
asserted
groups → slash → workers
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has rejected criticism of the economic impact of his proposal but acknowledged the changes would hit "some" visa holders working in aged care.
"What we need to have is a reset, breathing space, get the economy moving, get the right skills matches for our country," he told 7.30.
asserted
he → reject → country
Mr Taylor said he did not have the "exact number" of aged care workers affected, with a "transition" arrangement only flagged for health workers in the regions.
asserted
number → say → regions
Under the Coalition's plan, graduate, bridging and student visas would be significantly cut to achieve net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000 people for two years before returning it to about 160,000 in the fourth year.
asserted
visas → cut → year
By comparison Labor is targeting a NOM of 245,000 this year and 225,000 in 2027-28, while One Nation has pledged a "negative" intake for three years before settling at a target of 130,000 people "long-term".
asserted
Nation → target → people
Business groups warned the Coalition's low migration target undermined Australia's capacity to "prosper" while universities argued it would hurt the country's ability to funnel talented students from education into skilled work.
asserted
it → warn → work
Coalition claims skilled migrants will offset cuts
Yesterday Mr Taylor declared he was "confident" the Coalition's migration plan would be "budget neutral" because the deep cuts to temporary visa numbers would be offset by increased taxation income from higher value skilled migrants.
uncertain
cuts → claim → migrants
But critics have questioned where the promised extra 100,000 skilled workers would come from, given the program was already demand driven.
asserted
program → question → where
There are also concerns that requiring almost all temporary visa holders leave Australia to lodge extension or other applications would deter high skilled workers.
asserted
holders → be → workers
Mr Taylor said the Coalition had worked with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) to determine the impact on the budget but did not release the advice or indicate if modelling on the broader impact to the economy had been conducted.
asserted
modelling → say → economy
The PBO's 2026-27 medium-term budget outlook modelled sustained reductions in NOM and found 40,000 fewer migrants each year would worsen the federal budget by $79.1 billion by 2036-27, while 80,000 fewer would cost about $155.5 billion.
asserted
80,000 → model → billion
This was largely because fewer working-age migrants would mean less income tax revenue.
asserted
migrants → work → revenue
The Coalition, which has committed to cuts over a four-year period, has argued the budget impact would be neutralised by an increase to the amount of skilled workers who generally earn higher wages and pay more tax.
asserted
who → commit → tax
High-skilled migrants generally deliver a stronger return per person due to their younger age, stronger wage and labour-market performance, according to Treasury's 2021 Fiscal Impact of New Australians report.
uncertain
migrants → skille → report
Independent economist Saul Eslake said it was "true in general terms" that skilled migrants paid more tax than other temporary migrants, but without the PBO costings of the Coalition's plan it was difficult to assess if the plan would be budget neutral.
asserted
plan → say → plan
"They clearly have sought to address concerns about the impact that a big migration cut will have on the economy," he said.
asserted
he → seek → economy
"I'm not sure I buy everything the Coalition has said, but at least it appears they have thought about it."
asserted
they → buy → it
Mr Eslake said he thought the opposition was "right" to try focus on reducing the number of people in the country on temporary bridging visas.
asserted
opposition → say → visas
But he said it felt "unnecessary" to halve Australia's humanitarian intake to 10,000 people as it was a "tiny number" in the "grand scheme" of the migration program.
asserted
it → say → program
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said the Coalition's policy was a "response" to One Nation's surge in the polls and warned it would negatively impact the economy.
"What does it mean when you get fewer skilled workers?
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you → say → workers
The outcomes are pretty obvious," he said.
asserted
he → say → ?
"It's bad for businesses, prices go up for consumers — it's a bad deal all around.
asserted
it → go → consumers
"
Coalition plan will 'end in tears', business groups say
Business Council of Australia (BCA) chief executive Bran Black said the major reduction proposed by the Coalition risked a "significant hit" to the economy and workforce.
asserted
reduction → end → economy
"We must avoid a race to the bottom based on an arbitrary migration figure that could hurt Australia's economy while worsening the skills shortage," he said.
uncertain
he → avoid → shortage
"There are many unanswered questions as to how a cut of 650,000 temporary visas will be achieved without creating economic damage."
asserted
cut → be → damage
Property Council chief executive Mike Zorbas said it was "hard to see" how Australia's skills gap would not get "worse" under the Coalition's plan.
asserted
gap → say → plan
"These migration cuts are just too deep for precision outcomes," he said.
asserted
he → say → outcomes
Mr Zorbas said he agreed faith in the migration system had "deteriorated" but argued the Coalition's attempt to follow One Nation's policy position would "end in tears".
asserted
attempt → say → tears
Master Builders Australia boss Denita Wawn said it seemed "crazy" to require skilled migrants leave the country in order to reapply for a visa in the construction sector.
asserted
migrants → say → sector
"We appreciate the concern around visa hopping, but I would have thought where you've got priority issues and priority industries, and you want to get projects and houses built as quickly as possible, you would not delay that," she told News24.
asserted
she → appreciate → News24
Education sector joins criticism of cuts
Phil Honeywood from the International Education Association described the cuts to student and graduate visas as a "own goal" by the Coalition.
"We're talking about Australia's biggest service industry," he told the ABC.
asserted
he → join → ABC
"We're talking about the number one industry in Victoria and South Australia.
asserted
We → talk → Victoria
"Here we have 250,000 Australian jobs at risk for people who work in international education related areas."
asserted
who → have → areas
Mr Honeywood said international student fees funded Australia's research output and subsidised the study of domestic students.
asserted
fees → say → students
"Without that income, our universities are really going to be in incredible financial strain," he said.
asserted
he → go → strain
Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy said the cuts to international student and graduate visas would come with "real consequences" for the economy.
asserted
cuts → say → economy
"Restricting post-study work rights … risks making Australia less competitive for talented students and graduates at precisely the time we need more skilled people," he said.
asserted
he → restrict → people
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
