Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives held on to two seats in Thursday’s Ontario by-elections while the NDP retained a third, results that leave the status quo in the provincial legislature unchanged.
asserted
that → hold → legislature
The races happened at a critical time in Canada-U.S. relations and after the Ontario Premier engaged in a war of words with President Donald Trump.
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Premier → happen → Trump
The contests were seen as the first political test for Mr. Ford’s majority government since trade talks between Canada and the U.S. collapsed last month.
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talks → see → Canada
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals swept three federal by-elections across the country, including winning a Quebec seat that was previously Conservative.
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that → sweep → seat
Thursday’s results were a blow the Ontario Liberals, who are set to name a new leader on Nov. 21.
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who → set → Nov.
Ontario’s by-elections were held in York-Simcoe, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Scarborough Southwest.
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elections → hold → Simcoe
Going into the vote, Mr. Ford’s Progressive Conservatives held the two seats in York and Hamilton, which were vacated when former cabinet ministers Caroline Mulroney and Neil Lumsden resigned.
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Mulroney → go → York
The Scarborough seat in Toronto’s east end was previously held by Doly Begum, who resigned her position as NDP deputy leader to run for the federal Liberals.
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who → hold → Liberals
In Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, PC candidate Jeff Beattie won with about 39 per cent of the vote.
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Beattie → win → vote
The NDP’s Monique Taylor came in second with almost 33 per cent, and Liberal Heino Doessing was in third with 23 per cent.
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Doessing → come → cent
In York-Simcoe, PC candidate Susan Lahey won almost 50 per cent of the vote, with Liberal Naomi Davison in second at 39 per cent, and the NDP candidate a distant third with 4 per cent.
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candidate → win → cent
The Liberals did significantly better than they did in the 2025 vote, when they won only 24 per cent.
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they → do → cent
In Scarborough Southwest, the NDP held onto its seat, with candidate Fatima Shaban garnering about 40 per cent of the vote - well ahead of Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz at about 30 per cent and PC candidate Noor Tarun at 23 per cent.
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Shaban → hold → cent
Speaking alongside Mr. Beattie outside his victory party in Hamilton, Mr. Ford congratulated his candidate and thanked the opposition parties for their campaigns.
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Ford → speak → campaigns
The Premier vowed to keep up his fight against Mr. Trump’s tariffs: “The enemy isn’t each and every one of us, all of us together.
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enemy → vow → us
And we’re going to fight against Donald Trump.”
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we → go → Trump
The victory in Scarborough was a rare bit of good news for NDP Leader Marit Stiles, after the loss of her deputy leader, which sparked the by-election race, and a series of polls that have shown her party behind Ontario’s leaderless Liberals.
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that → spark → Liberals
She told cheering organizers in Scarborough that Thursday’s victory belonged to them – and that the results showed that her party was the one that could eventually defeat Mr. Ford.
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that → tell → Ford
“You delivered a message today to Doug Ford,” Ms. Stiles said, flanked by her candidate and several of her MPPs.
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Stiles → deliver → MPPs
“You said, ‘You better watch your back, because we are coming for you.’”
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we → say → you
Mr. Ford’s popularity took a hit earlier this spring after a series of controversies, including his government’s purchase of a $28.9-million private jet and a hotel-expenses scandal that resulted in the resignation of one of his cabinet ministers.
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that → take → ministers
But the Premier has since rebounded in some polls amid a public spat with Mr. Trump, who has personally attacked the Premier.
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who → rebound → Premier
Last week, Mr. Ford told Mr. Trump to “kiss my ass” and called him a loser.
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Ford → tell → him
The PCs used the conflict with the U.S. President as part of their campaign materials, saying the Premier is the only one who can “stand up to Trump.”
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who → use → Trump
But political opponents accused Mr. Ford of deflecting from his own government’s record, including on health care and education.
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opponents → accuse → care
Political observers expected the PCs to hold rural York-Simcoe, north of Toronto, long a Conservative stronghold.
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PCs → expect → Toronto
But the Hamilton seat was seen as being in play for the opposition parties.
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seat → see → parties
NDP candidate Ms. Taylor was a former long-time MPP from a neighbouring area, and the Liberals were hoping to make inroads with Mr. Doessing, who placed second in the 2025 provincial election.
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who → neighbour → election
The Scarborough seat was seen as the most unpredictable.
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seat → see → unpredictable
Both Ms. Stiles and Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser watched the by-election results roll in at candidate events in Scarborough.
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results → watch → Scarborough
The NDP saw the seat, which was won three times by Ms. Begum, as a must-win for candidate Ms. Shaban.
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which → see → Shaban
But the Liberals were looking to take it back, after a nomination battle in which former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith accused the party of wrongdoing after he narrowly lost to candidate Mr. Hafiz.
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he → look → Hafiz
The Ontario PC Party, meanwhile, barred journalists from attending their candidates’ by-election parties, which are traditionally open to media.
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which → bar → media
Voter turnout for the races was low: 29 per cent in Hamilton-Stoney Creek, 26.5 per cent in Scarborough and 21 per cent in York-Simcoe, according to Elections Ontario.
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turnout → accord → Ontario
The Aporia
