Bessent predicts oil prices could drop as low as $40 after Iran conflict ends and supply floods market

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Cite

Bacall, M. (2026, September 6). Bessent predicts oil prices could drop as low as $40 after Iran conflict ends and supply floods market. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/media/bessent-predicts-oil-prices-drop-low-40-iran-conflict-ends-supply-floods-market

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Fox News · collected 2026-09-06 · by Max Bacall

Quick Summary

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts that oil prices could drop to between $40 and $50 per barrel once the Iran conflict ends. According to Bessent, the US has "so much supply coming on" due to its status as an "energy superpower", which will alleviate current market constraints caused by the conflict. He also stated that the US economy is strong, with job growth and wage growth increasing despite some Americans still struggling to break even with inflation. Bessent believes the Iran conflict is a temporary "energy supply shock" that will soon subside as alternative pipeline routes are constructed around the Strait of Hormuz.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-06, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that oil prices could drop as low as $40 per barrel after the Iran conflict ends and abundant supply hits the market. He believes the American economy is strong and accelerating, with a "productivity burst" leading to increased job and wage growth. However, he noted that working-class Americans are still struggling to keep up with inflation. Bessent thinks the current "energy supply shock" is only temporary, as the US is an "energy superpower". He also mentioned a manufacturing renaissance and a future of strong economic growth.

Written for “Oil Price Decline Predictions” on 2026-10-22, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Oil Price Decline Predictions
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 15% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Goldman Sachs warns oil could surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Hormuz continue different event · 90%
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 33% hedged 5 of 15 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A mentions a prediction about oil prices dropping after the Iran conflict ends, while Article B warns of a surge in oil prices if attacks on Hormuz continue”
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⚖️ Leans right 🔴 9% hedged 4 of 44 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses OPEC's internal divisions and price signals, while Article B mentions Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicting a potential drop in oil prices due to abundant supply after the Iran conflict ends”
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Semafor
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A reports on the US sanctions campaign against Iran driving oil prices higher, while Article B reports on a prediction of lower oil prices after the Iran conflict ends and supply floods the market”
US extends Middle East troop deployments into 2027 different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses oil prices and supply after the Iran conflict ends, while Article B focuses on US troop deployments in the Middle East extending into 2027”
US and Iran trade attacks on oil tankers different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article B describes a trade of attacks between the US and Iran, while Article A mentions a future scenario after an unspecified conflict with Iran ends”
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⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 13 of 121 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A discusses a prediction made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about oil prices dropping after the Iran conflict ends, while Article B reports on an increase in oil prices due to Iran's plan to expand control over the Strait of Hormuz”
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⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 32 of 290 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles report on different aspects of a conflict between the US and Iran, but with distinct outcomes (oil price increase vs. prediction of oil price decrease) and events (new attacks vs. earlier destroyed oil tankers)”
Treasury yields soar to almost 5% on inflation fears different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A reports Treasury Secretary Bessent's prediction about oil prices after the Iran conflict ends, while Article B discusses a different issue: Treasury yields soaring due to inflation fears and bond sell-off”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
13
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
15%
2 of 13 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
67/100
Fox News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-06 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Max Bacall
11 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Max Bacall
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2026-10-11 · Fox News
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2026-10-11 · Fox News
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 11 articles by Max Bacall →

Topics

American Americans Fox News Iran Treasury

Subjects

Bessent ORG · 4× Iran GPE · 4× Americans NORP · 2× Treasury ORG · 2× American NORP · 1× Fox News ORG · 1× Lara Trump PERSON · 1× Scott Bessent PERSON · 1× Washington GPE · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

He predicted that the Strait of Hormuz would soon become less crucial to global oil trade as Gulf nations work to construct alternative pipeline routes that will allow them to circumnavigate the tumultuous waters, diminishing Iran's ability to threaten oil flows.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-06
🔮 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted oil prices could fall to between $40 and $50 per barrel once the Iran conflict ends, arguing that abundant supply is poised to hit the market after constraints ease.
2026-09-06 · Fox News
Bessent predicts oil prices could drop as low as $40 after Iran conflict ends and supply floods market · assertive framing

Claims (13 extracted, 2 hedged)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted oil prices could fall to between $40 and $50 per barrel once the Iran conflict ends, arguing that abundant supply is poised to hit the market after constraints ease. uncertain
constraints → predict → market
Bessent asserted that the American economy is "very strong" and even accelerating, saying that the country is experiencing a "productivity burst" during an interview on "My View with Lara Trump." "On the other side of this, we actually could see oil prices $40 or $50 because there's so much supply coming on. uncertain
we → assert → this
It's just constricted right now," he told Fox News host Lara Trump. asserted
he → constrict → Trump
The "energy supply shock" is only temporary, Bessent said, calling the United States an "energy superpower" and a leader in artificial intelligence and global computing power. asserted
Bessent → say → intelligence
"Americans, on average, are breaking even. asserted
Americans → break → ?
Working-class Americans at the bottom of the wage spectrum are doing a little better than inflation, but we don't believe that that is acceptable," the Treasury chief said. asserted
chief → do → inflation
"But what is the good news is that these wage increases are going to keep going. asserted
increases → go → ?
We've got a manufacturing renaissance, a construction renaissance. asserted
We → get → renaissance
So the wages will keep going, this war will end, and those will turn into real wage gains. asserted
those → keep → gains
" Bessent's comments come as tension between Washington, D.C., and Tehran show no sign of cooling following Saturday’s U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers. asserted
tension → come → tankers
He predicted that the Strait of Hormuz would soon become less crucial to global oil trade as Gulf nations work to construct alternative pipeline routes that will allow them to circumnavigate the tumultuous waters, diminishing Iran's ability to threaten oil flows. asserted
them → predict → flows
We are going to asphyxiate this regime," Bessent said, adding that the combination of the blockade and sanctions is "one of the most powerful one-two punches in the history of economic isolation." asserted
combination → go → isolation
"I think we are going to get to the other side of this Iran conflict with a safer world, with an Iran that cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that we are in the lift-off phase." asserted
we → think → phase
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