Goldman Sachs warns oil could surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Hormuz continue

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Cite

Croft, A. (2026, September 7). Goldman Sachs warns oil could surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Hormuz continue. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/goldman-sachs-oil-strait-hormuz-war-b3045956.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

The Independent · collected 2026-09-07 · by Alex Croft

Quick Summary

Goldman Sachs is warning that oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping continue. According to the investment banking firm, this would be the highest price of oil since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in February. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, stated that there is a growing risk of shipping disruptions becoming more frequent and severe. The current price of Brent crude is above $97 per barrel, with an average of 10 commodity ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day over the past 10 days, down from nearly 15 previously.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-07, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could surge to as high as $120 per barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping continue. This would be the highest oil price level since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28th. The current peak of $114 per barrel, reached on May 4th, is already a concern, but Goldman Sachs' warning suggests that prices could rise even higher if shipping disruptions worsen. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes, has been at the center of tensions between Iran and the US. Despite efforts to resolve the issue, progress remains stalled, with Iran announcing new sanctions on ships trying to pass through the strait. This development has raised concerns that the situation could escalate further, leading to higher oil prices.

Written for “Oil Price Surge Feared” on 2026-10-23, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Oil Price Surge Feared
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 33% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 2 of 23 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A describes a fuel price surge affecting farmers due to renewed Middle East hostilities and Russia's ban on diesel exports, while Article B discusses a potential future oil price surge due to attacks on Hormuz”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 15% hedged 2 of 13 📰 publisher trust 67
“Article A mentions a prediction about oil prices dropping after the Iran conflict ends, while Article B warns of a surge in oil prices if attacks on Hormuz continue”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 32 of 290 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A discusses a warning from Goldman Sachs about potential oil price surge due to attacks on Hormuz, while Article B reports on actual attacks by US and Iran and their effects on oil prices”
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 1 of 13 📰 publisher trust 71
“Article A refers to potential attacks on Hormuz and mentions $120 per barrel, while Article B reports an increase in Brent crude prices due to Middle East conflict but does not mention a specific threat to Hormuz”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 25% hedged 1 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A refers specifically to attacks on Hormuz, while Article B mentions conflict in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries”
CBS News
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 9% hedged 28 of 311 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article B mentions a separate incident (Houthis seizing the Red Sea port of Mokha) that is related but not directly described in Article A”
TIME
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 23% hedged 12 of 53 📰 publisher trust 59
“While both articles discuss oil price increases due to conflicts involving Iran, they describe different times and outcomes.”
OPEC’s new threat comes from within different event · 80%
Semafor
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 9% hedged 4 of 44 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses OPEC's internal divisions and price signals from Saudi Aramco, while Article B warns of potential oil price surge due to shipping disruptions at Hormuz, but does not explicitly mention an event occurring on the same specific time and place”
US diesel prices hit an all-time-high different event · 80%
BBC News
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 31% hedged 4 of 13 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A mentions a general increase in diesel prices due to the ongoing war, while Article B specifically warns of a potential surge in oil prices if attacks on Hormuz continue”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 20% hedged 2 of 10 📰 publisher trust 64
“Although both articles discuss recent events affecting oil prices, they mention different incidents: Article A mentions a decline in refined-product exports due to losses in Russia and the Persian Gulf, while Article B discusses potential disruptions from attacks on Hormuz.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
33%
5 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-07 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 2902 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Alex Croft
39 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Alex Croft
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 39 articles by Alex Croft →

Topics

Goldman Sachs Iran Iranian Israel Tehran

Subjects

Iran GPE · 6× Goldman Sachs ORG · 2× Iranian NORP · 2× Tehran GPE · 2× Americans NORP · 1× Bloomberg TV ORG · 1× Daan Struyven PERSON · 1× Israel GPE · 1× Mohsen Rezaei PERSON · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the investment banking firm, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-07
🔮 Oil prices could surge as high as $120 per barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping do not stop, Goldman Sachs has warned.

Claims (15 extracted, 5 hedged)

Oil prices could surge as high as $120 per barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping do not stop, Goldman Sachs has warned. uncertain
Sachs → surge → shipping
This would be the highest oil prices have hit since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on 28 February. asserted
US → hit → February
Brent crude, the international benchmark, peaked at $114 per barrel on 4 May. uncertain
crude → peak → May
“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the investment banking firm, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. asserted
Struyven → suggest → Monday
The US and Iran have been unable to address a stalemate over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world’s oil passed during peace time. asserted
fifth → address → time
Tehran said on Monday it will unveil new sanctions for ships trying to pass through the strait following a weekend of renewed exchanges with the US, casting fresh doubt on progress towards an end to the conflict. asserted
it → say → conflict
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, told state TV on Sunday that Tehran will announce a new ‘exclusion zone’ outside of the waterway in the coming days. asserted
Tehran → tell → days
He said any ship seen entering the new restricted zone would be added to a sanctions list, reiterating that the waterway would only fully open again once the Americans “stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran”. asserted
Americans → say → Iran
Iran and the United States traded fire again over the weekend, with the price of Brent crude now above $97 per barrel, driving Hormuz traffic down to its lowest since May. uncertain
price → trade → May
Rallying Brent crude prices could surpass $100 per barrel for the first time since 23 July, which was the only day that it has risen above this benchmark since 22 May. uncertain
it → rally → May
Goldman Sachs sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices”, but said that in gas and fuels, the “supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market”. asserted
shocks → see → market
Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are showing further signs of intensifying. asserted
Attacks → ship → signs
The US claimed strikes on three Iranian oil tankers, including one off the coast of Kharg Island, after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at two American naval vessels. asserted
Corps → claim → vessels
An average of ten commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz each day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday, after US and Iranian strikes on tankers. uncertain
average → transit → tankers
The 10-day moving average was 10 on Sunday, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday, data from analytics firm Kpler found. asserted
data → move → Kpler
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