The Guardian
· collected 2026-10-01 · by Lorenzo Tondo and Quique Kierszenbaum in Jerusalem; graphics by Ana Lucía González Paz
On the streets of Jerusalem, crowded with secular and ultra-Orthodox Jews, religious nationalists, settlers, Palestinians, and soldiers returning from deployments, uncertainty hangs over an election less than a month away that could mark a turning point for a country profoundly changed after the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 and nearly three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
uncertain
that → crowd → Gaza
The political battle remains on a knife-edge.
asserted
battle → remain → edge
For over two years most polls have predicted that the coalition of parties led by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will collectively slip below the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government.
But there is no clear path to power for his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, even if he maintains current levels of support, because he has ruled out going into coalition with any of the parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are projected to claim a critical 12 seats.
uncertain
who → predict → seats
For Netanyahu to stay in power, he would have to either put together a different coalition or pull off an unprecedented election night surprise.
asserted
he → stay → surprise
Another deeply fragmented Knesset seems likely, in which neither side is close to securing a majority.
asserted
side → seem → majority
The latest Channel 13 poll, published last week, captured that deadlock: Jewish Israeli parties opposed to Netanyahu were projected to win 52 seats, against 51 for the prime minister’s bloc, with both falling short of the 61 required for a majority.
asserted
both → publish → majority
Eisenkot’s Yashar party topped the poll with 22 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to take 18.
asserted
Likud → top → 18
The lack of clarity over the next government – with both main blocs on the right – is fuelling unease among Israelis, some of whom believe little will change whoever becomes prime minister.
asserted
whoever → fuel → whom
“I’m not going to vote because I don’t trust anyone,” said Rachel, 42, an Israeli citizen living in West Jerusalem.
asserted
Rachel → go → Jerusalem
“I used to vote for Yair Lapid,” she added, referring to the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party.
asserted
she → use → party
“The party’s name means ‘there is a future’.
asserted
name → mean → ?
But today, I don’t see any future for this country.”
asserted
I → see → country
Average public trust across the eight Israeli institutions measured consistently by the Israel Democracy Institute, a statistics body, stood at 34% in 2025, compared with 61% in 2012.
An atmosphere of pessimism and indecision is palpable in Jerusalem, where tensions between Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem – the majority of whom cannot vote in Israeli national elections – and rightwing Jewish Israelis have deepened since 7 October.
asserted
majority → measure → October
The Hamas attack is likely to weigh heavily on the ballot: a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 68% of Jewish respondents said 7 October would be a central factor in deciding how they voted.
asserted
they → weigh → respondents
“After 7 October, everyone in this government has to take the blame,” said Ilda, who owns a clothing shop on Jaffa Street, one of Jerusalem’s oldest and busiest thoroughfares.
asserted
who → have → thoroughfares
Referring to a Haaretz investigation claiming Netanyahu had been warned about the possibility of a major Hamas attack, which he denies, she said: “After journalists exposed what happened, look what they did: they attacked the journalists instead of taking responsibility.”
asserted
they → refer → responsibility
West Jerusalem has long been considered fertile ground for Netanyahu and the Israeli right.
asserted
Jerusalem → consider → Netanyahu
Yet Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation and the prospect of seemingly endless conflict on multiple fronts are beginning to worry voters even here, a few steps from the bustling Mahane Yehuda market, where giant election posters for Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister known for his anti-Palestinian rhetoric and championing a racist death penalty law that in practice applies only to Palestinians, loom over the streets.
asserted
that → grow → streets
“This country needs radical change.
asserted
country → need → change
I think I’ll vote for Naftali Bennett,” said Yosef, 26, a religious Israeli, referring to the rightwing former prime minister who now leads the B’Yachad alliance and is one of Netanyahu’s main political rivals.
asserted
who → think → rivals
On one side are tens of thousands of Netanyahu supporters – called “Bibi-ists” in reference to the prime minister’s nickname – as well as backers of the far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who want to return the current coalition to power to “finish the job” in Gaza, Iran, Lebanon and the West Bank.
asserted
who → call → Gaza
On the other are tens of thousands of voters who believe Israel is losing its standing in the world and needs a change of direction – something many see as embodied by the centre-right Eisenkot.
asserted
many → believe → Eisenkot
His supporters argue that he would place greater emphasis on education, social policy and the economy, areas they say have been neglected by the current government.
asserted
they → argue → government
“I’ll vote for anyone but the prime minister of 7 October,” said Turgeman as he enjoyed a coffee with his wife at a cafe in Jaffa during the Jewish high holiday season.
asserted
he → vote → season
“I’ve never voted Likud in my life, and I’m certainly not going to start now.
asserted
I → vote → life
I’ll vote for Eisenkot.
asserted
I → vote → Eisenkot
We need a normal prime minister – someone who also cares about the economy and about prices, which have soared because of the war.
asserted
which → need → war
Food prices in Israel have reached record highs amid the regional conflict and supply chain disruption, with food inflation outpacing the broader consumer price index.
asserted
inflation → reach → index
The cost of food, including fresh fruit and vegetables, has risen by 9.5% over the past two years.
asserted
cost → include → years
“They think about wars, while nobody is dealing with the economic crisis,” Turgeman said.
asserted
Turgeman → think → crisis
“And what has Netanyahu done?
asserted
Netanyahu → do → what
He has continued to provide financial support that benefits the Haredi [ultra-Orthodox] community.”
asserted
that → continue → community
While most Jewish Israelis serve, Haredi men studying in religious seminaries have long been largely exempt.
asserted
men → serve → seminaries
In 2024, amid war and growing pressure on reservists, the supreme court ruled there was no legal basis to continue the exemption, fuelling anti-draft protests, roadblocks and clashes with police.
asserted
court → grow → police
Haredi parties have blamed Netanyahu for failing to pass legislation to protect the exemption.
asserted
parties → blame → exemption
Ultra-Orthodox Jews, who make up about 14% of Israel’s population, have traditionally voted for parties backed by their rabbis, including the two main Haredi parties in Netanyahu’s coalition.
asserted
who → make → coalition
But anger among younger Haredim over conscription and the policing of protests could lead some to defy their religious leaders this time.
uncertain
anger → lead → leaders
“All the options in this election are junk, but I think I will vote for Eisenkot,” said Pinchas, 24, an ultra-Orthodox student who recently completed his military service.
asserted
who → think → service
“I have the impression that this time people my age won’t vote according to what the rabbis tell them.
uncertain
rabbis → have → them
Many are angry about the way Netanyahu handled the conscription law, and especially about the crackdown on those who protested against it.
asserted
who → handle → it
…and 30 more, not listed.
The Aporia
