Better not ask singer Charli XCX, who was photographed at the height of her Brat summer, receiving a birthday bouquet stuffed with cigarettes.
asserted
who → ask → cigarettes
At the time Vogue noted the tongue-in-cheek gift was the kind of thing a Swiftie might "baulk" at.
uncertain
Swiftie → note → thing
Australia considers dramatic change
Fortunately for Australian health advocates, that aesthetic does not appear to have penetrated the psyche of the average teenager.
asserted
aesthetic → consider → teenager
Smoking among 14 to 17-year-olds has fallen to levels almost too low to reliably track, while local research found teens generally described young smokers as "losers" or "trying too hard to be cool".
But there remain concerns.
asserted
teens → fall → losers
A poll released this year found 26 per cent of 12 to 17-year-olds had tried some form of nicotine, while another 15 per cent were considering it.
asserted
cent → release → it
All of these factors matter if Australia is seriously considering a dramatic change in how nicotine is regulated.
asserted
nicotine → matter → change
More than half the cigarettes sold in the country are now purchased illegally, while the estimated nicotine black market share jumps to 80 per cent when vapes and pouches are included.
asserted
vapes → sell → cent
Coalition releases its plan
asserted
Coalition → release → plan
The solution proposed this week by the Coalition is to slash the tobacco excise by 80 per cent, just edging out One Nation's 75 per cent in what Labor has dubbed a "race to the bottom" with organised crime.
asserted
Labor → propose → crime
But the policy unveiled by Opposition Leader Angus Taylor this week went further than the excise.
asserted
policy → unveil → excise
In addition to money for more law enforcement and a public education campaign, the Coalition wants to legalise and tax vapes and nicotine pouches.
asserted
Coalition → want → vapes
A young person who has vaped is five times more likely to take up smoking, according to one study cited by the Cancer Council.
uncertain
who → vape → Council
Australia has to date taken a highly restrictive approach to alternative nicotine products, restricting the sale of vapes to pharmacies and banning pouches.
asserted
Australia → take → pouches
Enforcement has become much more aggressive, though it plainly has not eliminated the retail black market.
asserted
it → become → market
But where reforms can claim some success has been in youth vaping rates, which have dropped by about a third since 2024.
uncertain
which → claim → 2024
It is this progress in particular the federal government and health advocates fear would be undone by the Coalition's policy.
asserted
government → fear → policy
One question opponents care about
There is only one question that matters to opponents of the idea Australia can tax and regulate its way out of a very dangerous organised crime-fuelled tobacco black market: Is a rise in smoking and nicotine addiction a price worth paying?
asserted
rise → care → smoking
It's a premise either avoided or outright rejected by those who believe a more affordable legal option is preferable to the status quo.
asserted
option → avoid → quo
Taylor this week has argued the "horse has already bolted" on higher smoking rates, suggesting things couldn't get worse.
asserted
things → argue → rates
He can argue that because this debate has been riddled with selective use of statistics and preferred sources of information.
asserted
debate → argue → information
While a national household survey has tracked a drop in smoking rates and stabilisation of vaping, there was about 30 per cent more nicotine detected in wastewater last year compared to 2021.
asserted
survey → track → 2021
These two seemingly incongruous points are used to either argue that making cigarettes prohibitively expensive remains an effective tool for reducing smoking, or that people are turning to illegal alternatives and not reporting it.
asserted
people → use → it
There isn't a politician of any stripe who believes the current black market situation is good.
asserted
situation → be → stripe
Cigarettes have become more accessible with no checks and balances — no one has any clue what is in those products or who they're being sold to.
asserted
they → become → who
It is financing organised crime, which has led to terrifying firebombings — including one that led to the death of an innocent woman.
asserted
that → finance → woman
But consensus around a problem does not mean all solutions are equal.
asserted
solutions → mean → problem
A legal packet of cigarettes retails for generally between $40 and $50, of which about $30 is excise, while an illegal pack can be bought for $10 to $20.
asserted
pack → retail → 20
A 75 to 80 per cent excise cut would reduce the cost of a 20-packet by $23 to $24.
asserted
cut → reduce → 24
One Nation and Coalition argue proposals hit sweet spot
asserted
proposals → argue → spot
The Coalition and One Nation are both arguing their respective proposals hit the sweet spot of making legal cigarettes competitively priced enough to compete with the illicit market.
asserted
cigarettes → argue → market
They are betting on several things for this to work.
asserted
this → bet → things
The first is that Australians, rule followers that we are, will happily revert to the legal product for the right price.
asserted
we → revert → price
And the second is that an enforcement squeeze combined with market competition will destroy the criminals' profits.
asserted
squeeze → combine → profits
Both plausible outcomes — it worked in Canada, advocates will tell you.
asserted
advocates → work → you
In 1994 the country successfully quashed its thriving black market by slashing tobacco taxes in half.
asserted
country → quash → half
But there's a third factor this strategy relies on, and it's important.
asserted
it → be → ?
The Coalition and One Nation are hoping that the next generation of Australians will enter young adulthood and see a legal pack of cigarettes on the shelf for $20 and think, "nah, I'm good thanks".
asserted
I → hop → 20
Killing off the black market came at a high cost: Canada has about 190,000 excess daily smokers among the generation born from 1977 to 1985.
asserted
Canada → kill → 1985
To risk a similar result in Australia by making legal cigarettes cheaper and vapes more convenient to access would be a serious gamble.
asserted
vapes → risk → Australia
Health minister questions Coalition
Health Minister Mark Butler has accused the Coalition of having "no understanding" of what its policy would do to Australia's smoking and vaping rates.
asserted
policy → accuse → rates
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia