Much has changed since the far-right army captain Jair Bolsonaro won Brazil's presidency in 2018.
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captain → change → 2018
Last year, the former president was sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat.
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president → sentence → defeat
In 2023, he was barred from holding public office for eight years after a court determined he abused his political office.
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he → bar → office
He is currently banned from using social media.
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He → ban → media
His last post was published in July 2025.
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post → publish → July
And yet, Bolsonaro has forged a powerful political dynasty that is on the verge of returning to power in Brazil's October presidential election.
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that → forge → election
His eldest son, 45-year-old Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is in a statistical tie with the race's incumbent, left-leaning President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
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son → lean → incumbent
A September 24 poll released by the public opinion firm Datafolha showed Lula with a slim lead in a simulated run-off, earning 47 percent support to Flavio's 45 percent, well within the margin of error.
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poll → release → error
Other pollsters predict an even narrower gap between the two frontrunners.
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pollsters → predict → frontrunners
Like his father, Flavio has faced investigation and scandal.
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Flavio → face → investigation
But experts say the Bolsonaro family has endured as a political force in part by harnessing decades of frustration with Lula's Workers' Party (PT).
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family → say → Party
That resentment, in turn, has transformed into a potent election-season brand.
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resentment → transform → brand
“There is a hyperfocus on Lula and the PT, who for over two decades have been branded by many conservatives as the ones solely responsible for rampant corruption,” said political scientist Paulo Roberto Souza of the Democracy in Check Institute, an independent research nonprofit.
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Souza → be → Institute
Analysts told Al Jazeera that the Bolsonaro family's electoral strength does not come from a base of hardcore supporters.
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strength → tell → supporters
Bolsonaristas, after all, are only estimated to comprise between 15 and 25 percent of Brazil's electorate.
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Bolsonaristas → estimate → electorate
Instead, experts credit "antipetismo" — a trend of hostility against Lula's PT movement — with fuelling the Bolsonaro family's rise to political power.
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experts → credit → power
The PT has won all but one of the last six presidential elections in Brazil.
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PT → win → Brazil
Jair Bolsonaro did not invent "antipetismo", according to Mario Sergio Lima, a Brazil analyst at Medley Advisors, a political advisory firm.
But his arrival as a presidential frontrunner in 2018 gave the movement a political identity, Lima said.
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Lima → invent → identity
The elder Bolsonaro was able to “condense anti-PT sentiment into his own persona”.
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Bolsonaro → condense → persona
Lima predicted Flavio would likewise benefit from the wave of "antipetismo" when he competes against Lula in the October 4 general election.
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he → predict → election
“It is easy for anyone who is already against the PT to vote for Flavio or anyone who carries the Bolsonaro name, because Jair managed to personify a feeling that already existed in Brazilian society,” Lima explained.
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Lima → vote → society
A family affair
Formerly a long-serving member of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies, Jair Bolsonaro has become the fulcrum for a political movement based around his own nuclear family.
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Bolsonaro → serve → family
Each of his four sons has embarked on a political career.
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Each → embark → career
In October's general election, his second oldest son Carlos is running for a Senate seat.
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son → run → seat
His youngest son Jair Renan is competing for the Chamber of Deputies.
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son → compete → Deputies
Meanwhile, his third son, Eduardo, moved to the United States in 2025 to lobby President Donald Trump for help with his father’s trial.
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son → move → trial
He lost his congressional seat that December because of repeated absences, and in June, a Brazilian court ruled that Eduardo's efforts amounted to illegal foreign interference.
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efforts → lose → interference
Even former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro commands her own political clout, enjoying immense popularity among Brazil's conservative evangelical Christians.
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Bolsonaro → command → Christians
In the lead-up to the 2026 election season, Michelle was floated as a possible right-wing candidate for the presidency.
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Michelle → float → presidency
But in December, Jair offered a jailhouse endorsement to his son Flavio.
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Jair → offer → Flavio
Though imprisoned, the ex-president remains a powerful figure in the Liberal Party, a right-wing juggernaut.
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president → imprison → Party
Columnist Fabio Zanini, a political analyst for Brazil's biggest newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo, described the Bolsonaro family as a nest of competing interests.
“It’s a dysfunctional family.
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It → describe → interests
They often fight among themselves,” he said.
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he → fight → themselves
But their disparate political activities have created what Zanini calls a “franchise", with influence across different spheres of Brazilian politics.
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Zanini → create → politics
Flavio himself has sought to channel his father on the campaign trail.
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Flavio → seek → trail
In early September, with less than a month remaining until the first round of voting, Flavio rallied on the streets of Juiz de Fora, an industrial city in the country's southeast.
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Flavio → remain → southeast
The location was symbolic: His father survived a near-fatal stabbing in downtown Juiz de Fora during his successful 2018 presidential bid.
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father → survive → bid
Flavio used his visit to retrace his father's route, saying he had returned to “complete the journey” Jair was unable to finish.
Overshadowing the conservative field
The right-wing senator was not always his father's heir apparent.
After Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year prison sentence, Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas was widely rumoured to be a new standard-bearer for the Brazilian right.
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Freitas → use → right
Freitas, after all, had served in Jair's cabinet and had comfortably won a 2022 election to lead Brazil’s richest and most populous state.
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Freitas → serve → state
He had also expressed an interest in making a run for the presidency himself.
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He → express → presidency
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
