Farmers warn that hot weather and dry conditions could lead to a record-breaking poor harvest in the UK, resulting in smaller and more expensive vegetables due to "shrinkflation" in supermarkets. According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank, the cereals and oilseed harvest is expected to be 2.5 million tonnes less than forecast, with barley, oats, and rapeseed production estimated at a record low of 19.5 million tonnes. Chairman of Nationwide Produce Tim O'Malley predicts that consumers will see higher prices or smaller vegetables as supermarkets try to maintain current prices despite the lower yield. The drought has already been declared across large parts of England and Wales, with some areas receiving less than 1% of their average rainfall this month.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-21,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
This year's UK harvest is expected to be the worst on record due to a severe drought caused by an exceptionally dry July, which saw the country experience its driest month since records began 190 years ago. The 2.5 million tonne decrease in cereals and oilseed harvest, estimated by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), will likely lead to "shrinkflation" in supermarkets, where consumers may face higher prices or smaller vegetables. The drought has been declared across large parts of England and Wales, and is expected to cost farmers a significant £390m in lost revenue. The harvest of key crops such as barley, oats, and rapeseed, used in products like beer, breakfast cereals, and vegetable oil, is estimated to drop to just 19.5 million tonnes, the lowest since records began in 1984. This could have a ripple effect throughout the food chain, particularly for livestock farmers who rely on these crops as feed. Tim O'Malley, chairman of Nationwide produce, warned that consumers will likely feel the impact, with supermarkets potentially increasing prices or reducing vegetable sizes to compensate for the reduced supply.
Written for “Food Production Crisis” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article presents a neutral tone and avoids loaded language, using phrases like 'farmers warn' instead of 'alarm bells ring'. The use of 'shrinkflation', a term that could be seen as pejorative, is also accompanied by quotes from the chairman of Nationwide produce, Tim O'Malley, providing context for the phenomenon. However, the framing of the drought's impact on food prices and availability leans slightly left, with a focus on the consequences for consumers and farmers rather than the economic benefits of reduced crop yields.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score -0.33 for article 451 · logged 2026-08-06
- Published
This year's harvest could be the worst on record as farmers warn the exceptionally dry spring and summer could lead to "shrinkflation" in UK supermarkets.
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spring → publish → supermarkets
England and Wales saw their driest July since records began 190 years ago, according to the Met Office, and a drought has been declared across large parts of the country.
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drought → see → country
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank said the UK's cereals and oilseed harvest could be 2.5 million tonnes less than earlier forecasts.
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harvest → say → forecasts
Tim O'Malley, the chairman of Nationwide produce, said it was "as bad as its ever been" and that shoppers will likely see higher prices or smaller vegetables in supermarkets.
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shoppers → say → supermarkets
The harvest of barley, oats and rapeseed, which are used in beer, breakfast cereals and vegetable oil, is estimated to drop to just 19.5 million tonnes, the worst since records began in 1984.
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records → use → 1984
That is compared with a previous low of 19.8 million tonnes in 2020, and would cost farmers £390m in lost revenue, the ECIU estimated.
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ECIU → compare → revenue
The crops are also used for feeding livestock, making them crucial across most of the food chain.
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them → use → chain
O'Malley said consumers could feel the impact in the vegetable aisle too, where grocers are likely to swap in smaller produce at the same price, which is known as shrinkflation.
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which → say → shrinkflation
"I think we're going to see shrinkflation," he told Radio 5 Live's Wake Up to Money.
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he → think → Money
"The problem we're going to have this year is a massive reduction in yield and major quality issues," O'Malley said.
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O'Malley → go → yield
He said that will mean smaller sizes for fresh produce.
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that → say → produce
"We've got crop with stress or we've got quality issues.
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we → get → issues
So you will see a smaller crop," O'Malley said.
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O'Malley → see → crop
He said supermarkets will "do everything" to keep prices where they are, but added: "eventually they will probably have to come to the party and increase the price, particularly if they start importing."
Grocers are already bringing in more products from abroad because of the poor conditions at home.
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Grocers → say → home
"We're importing broccoli and iceberg [lettuce] from Spain at this time of year, which in August [is] unheard of.
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which → import → August
I think we're going to see more of that, unfortunately," O'Malley said.
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O'Malley → think → that
He added: "Loud and clear, it's grim out there.
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it → add → ?
I think it's as bad as it's ever been …
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it → think → ?
Every record is being broken.
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record → break → ?
"The difference in this year and last year, last year we had four heat waves.
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we → have → waves
But in between them we had a bit of rain."
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we → have → rain
Farmers source additional water for their crops and livestock over summer from a combination of stored winter rainfall on site, and by extracting it from natural sources - a process called abstraction.
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Farmers → source → process
This summer has seen significant low rainfall affecting the amount of water available to draw from.
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summer → see → water
Half of England and all of Wales have been declared to be in drought conditions by the Environment Agency.
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Half → declare → Agency
Wales has received just 8% of its average rainfall so far this month.
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Wales → receive → rainfall
England has received 7% of its average, with that figure as low as 1% across southern England.
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figure → receive → England
The high temperatures and repeated heatwaves have also increased evaporation rates which have particularly hit rivers.
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which → repeat → rivers
Climate change is expected to bring more severe, frequent and longer-lasting heatwaves in UK summers in the coming years - which could bring more water shortages for farmers.
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which → expect → farmers
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU said: "At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row.
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April → say → row
"Farming is now the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings."
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it → bring → that
Martin Lines, head of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a farmer from Cambridgeshire, said this year's harvest "has been a real kick in the teeth".
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harvest → say → teeth
"After two terrible harvests in a row, the crops this year were looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest," he said.
"
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he → look → harvest
I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm.
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it → know → farm
"Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry."
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it → know → industry
