The 2026-27 NBA season begins on Oct. 20, when the New York Knicks will lift the championship banner to celebrate their first NBA title in 53 seasons.
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Knicks → begin → seasons
I’m looking forward to this season, and not just because I’m a Knicks fan.
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I → look → season
In fact, at some point during the regular season, we’re hoping to launch a new-and-improved version of RAPTOR, the NBA player valuation and projection system that I built for FiveThirtyEight.1
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I → hop → FiveThirtyEight.1
In the meantime, it’s time for one of my favorite Silver Bulletin features: our Future of the Franchise rankings.
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it → ’ → Franchise
This is the fourth iteration of FOTF (#1, #2, #3), which began in February 2025 after the Luka Doncic trade and is now a biannual tradition.
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which → begin → trade
Our goal is seemingly simple: to rank the 30 NBA teams by their expected number of championships over the next 10 NBA seasons (2026-27 through 2035-36).
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goal → rank → 2035
This is unapologetically “rings culture” taken to the max: pretty goodness doesn’t matter, only titles do.
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titles → take → max
That said, there have been eight distinct NBA champions over the past eight seasons, not all of whom looked like juggernauts heading into the year.
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all → say → year
The panelists are me (NS), Silver Bulletin Assistant Sports Editor Joseph George (JG), and Jeremias Engelmann (JE), the developer of Real Plus-Minus and a former analyst for the Mavericks and Suns, whose excellent work can be found at xRAPM.com and 5x5.
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work → find → xRAPM.com
Just speaking for myself, this was by far the most difficult time I’ve had making out my FOTF list.
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I → speak → list
The top two teams have never been clearer — spoiler: it has to be the Thunder and the Spurs in some order.
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it → have → order
Joseph, Jeremias and I also exactly agreed on the teams ranked #30, #29, #28 and #27.
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Joseph → agree → teams
Some of that is because the top two teams look so unstoppable.
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teams → look → that
Despite league rules that make it increasingly impossible to keep a core together, the Thunder have 68 and 64 wins over the past two regular seasons, a back-to-back MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and an abundance of role players and draft assets that should keep the treadmill running.
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that → make → treadmill
The Spurs were one of the youngest teams ever to reach the finals, led by a 7’4” superstar the likes of which the league has never seen before.
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league → reach → which
Sure, they wilted under the bright lights, but none of the core players are anywhere near their peak.
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none → wilt → peak
“My” Knicks aren’t in this elite, long-term tier — but they’re the ones hanging a banner.
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they → ’re → banner
(And charging a minimum of $1,172 for Opening Night when I last checked.)
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I → charge → Night
And the way they bulldozed through the playoffs last year raised questions about literally every other Eastern Conference contender.
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they → bulldoze → contender
Not only about the three teams they beat (the Hawks, 76ers and Cavs) but also, by the transitive principle, teams like the Celtics and Pistons.
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they → beat → Celtics
Boston’s loss to Philly looks much worse after an undignified 4-0 Knicks sweep against the same team, and they traded Jaylen Brown after he finished 6th in MVP voting.
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he → look → voting
The problem for the rest of the league is that there aren’t all that many championships to go around.
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problem → be → league
Let’s say we assign 2-ish championships to each of the Spurs and the Thunder.
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we → let → Spurs
(Joseph and Jeremias might disagree, but that’s about where I land.)
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I → disagree → ?
That leaves just six titles remaining for the other 28 franchises, or around 0.2 per team.2
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That → leave → franchises
My back-of-the-envelope attempt resulted in a distribution that looks like this:
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that → result → this
The highest number I get for non-OKC/SAS teams is 0.45 titles.
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I → get → teams
In other words, every franchise apart from the Spurs and the Thunder is probably a bad bet to win a title over the next 10 years at even money.
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franchise → win → money
In some cases, that feels really harsh.
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that → feel → cases
Since 1972, the Lakers haven’t gone more than 12 years without a championship.
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Lakers → go → championship
Recognizing the scarcity of chips on the table motivated me to rejigger my ratings some.
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Recognizing → recognize → ratings
If the average non-OKC/SAS team has an expectation of only 0.2 titles, then having any short-term championship equity at all — 5 percent or certainly 10 percent — can cause a team to rocket up the list.
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team → have → list
Since the colors give it away anyway, I can reveal that my “Mystery Team #1”, for instance, is the Knicks.
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Team → give → instance
Having traded the farm for Mikal Bridges and KAT, they’re probably going to be quite bad in, say, 2031.
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they → trade → 2031
But having a 12 percent chance of repeating this year — honestly, that feels a little low — and 10 percent next year
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that → have → chance
Ordinarily, this is where I’d turn things over to Jeremias or Joseph.
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I → turn → Jeremias
Flow-wise, it just works a little better if someone other than me writes the capsule for the #30 team.
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someone → work → team
However, between when we assigned the teams and when this story was published, the NBA gave one of my assignments, the Los Angeles Clippers, the equivalent of the NCAA football “death penalty,” stripping them of five first-round draft picks for the Kawhi Leonard salary cap circumvention scandal.
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NBA → assign → scandal
We all dropped them to #30, which is saying something in a league that also contains the Sacramento Kings.
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that → drop → Kings
We will take a little pause, though, to show you an interactive graphic.
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We → take → graphic
…and 47 more, not listed.
The Aporia
