The Independent
· collected 2026-09-28 · by Joshua Busby and Greg Pollock
If you think your energy costs are high now, the situation may be about to get a whole lot worse.
uncertain
situation → think → ?
With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – normally the primary route for oil leaving the Middle East – hovering below 15% of prewar levels, oil prices have increased from US$65 a barrel before the conflict in Iran began in February 2026 to more than $100 a barrel in mid-September.
When the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran, analysts feared prices would soon reach $150 or even $200 a barrel.
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prices → leave → 150
That hasn’t happened yet.
asserted
That → happen → ?
But seven months into the conflict, with no clear end in sight, the global oil market has now largely exhausted the safety measures that exist to keep a lid on petroleum prices.
asserted
that → exhaust → prices
As researchers who study the relationship between energy and national security, we have been following these dynamics throughout the conflict, and the oil market is now showing signs that significant price hikes – and perhaps even shortages – may be on the way.
uncertain
hikes → study → way
The squeeze tightens
Some oil has been able to make it out of the Persian Gulf despite the closure of Hormuz.
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oil → tighten → Hormuz
Saudi Arabia increased output via its East-West pipeline, which runs from Abqaiq on the Persian Gulf overland to Yanbu on the coast of the Red Sea.
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which → increase → Sea
At full capacity, that pipeline can carry as much as 7 million barrels per day, although only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day are typically exported.
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barrels → carry → day
But attacks on the pipeline in mid-September that Saudi Arabia blames on Iran-backed militias based in Iraq forced the Saudis to temporarily halt oil shipments through that pipeline.
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Arabia → blame → pipeline
The pipeline has now restarted operations at very low volumes, but it will likely take at least six to eight weeks to regain full capacity.
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it → restart → capacity
Even this short cessation has tightened already constrained oil markets, and the threat of further Houthi attacks on Red Sea oil exports will only add to inflationary pressures.
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threat → tighten → pressures
Meanwhile, in Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged refineries, reducing Russian production of diesel fuel and prompting the country to ban exports of it.
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attacks → damage → it
That has removed another 3% of the global daily supply of diesel, an important fuel for trucking and shipping.
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That → remove → trucking
When diesel costs go up, the result is inflation in the cost of goods across the global economy.
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result → go → economy
Feeling the pinch
In the U.S., 47 states experienced record-high diesel prices on Sept. 22, with the national average reaching $6.52 per gallon.
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average → feel → gallon
The high prices prompted President Donald Trump to threaten to ban diesel exports, a move analysts suggest would make matters worse by accentuating global supply shortages and driving world prices upward.
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matters → prompt → prices
Beyond diesel, motor oil prices have quadrupled, and supply shortages are starting to take hold.
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shortages → quadruple → hold
For instance, Costco has almost doubled its prices for motor oil and has limited the amount customers can buy.
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customers → double → amount
The upshot from all this is that Americans are spending a lot more on fuel in 2026 as compared to 2025.
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Americans → spend → 2025
Between March 1 and late September, Americans spent an additional $72 billion on gasoline compared to the same period a year ago, as well as $45 billion more on diesel.
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Americans → spend → diesel
That’s $117 billion in additional fuel costs, above and beyond the costs of the war itself, which the Pentagon estimated at $45 billion as of early September.
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Pentagon → ’ → September
South and Southeast Asian countries, which were more reliant on imports from the Persian Gulf than the United States, were hit hard soon after the war broke out.
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war → hit → States
Some of them have had to ration fuel, while others enacted emergency measures like shortening the work or school week to reduce fuel use.
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others → have → use
These challenges are now hitting Europe hard as well.
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challenges → hit → Europe
On Sept. 20, some 15% of French service stations had reportedly run out of either diesel or gas.
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% → run → diesel
Limited tools left
The international community has already taken most of the measures available to curb oil demand and boost its supply.
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community → leave → supply
Those moves have reduced the scale of oil price increases, but they did not prevent them entirely.
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they → reduce → them
Now, the toolbox is largely empty, leaving prices on the brink of spiking again.
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toolbox → leave → brink
In March 2026, a coordinated effort among 32 countries released more than 400 million barrels of oil into the global market from those countries’ strategic reserves.
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effort → release → reserves
Those stockpiles are now substantially depleted, and it is not clear how much additional oil that countries will be willing or even able to release as the war continues.
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war → deplete → ?
Since the war began, the United States alone has released 130 million barrels, leaving its reserves at a 40-year low.
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States → begin → low
The U.S. may not be able to release much more without compromising the structural integrity of the salt caverns where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is stored.
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Reserve → release → caverns
The role of China
China has played the largest role in containing global oil prices to date by releasing official reserves as well as what now seem to be massive additional reserves not previously disclosed to the public.
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what → play → public
The country reduced its crude oil imports by nearly 50% between February and June 2026.
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country → reduce → February
The increased electrification of the Chinese economy played a key role in reducing Chinese demand for oil during this period.
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electrification → increase → period
More than 60% of new passenger car sales in China are electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, and 30% of its heavy truck sales are now electric.
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% → plug → sales
Overall, China’s electrification of its transport sector allowed it to reduce oil consumption by 1.35 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026.
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it → allow → 2026
Other countries are looking to China for help as well.
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countries → look → help
The country’s international sales of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels have skyrocketed, as other countries seek to insulate themselves from oil market shocks.
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countries → skyrocket → shocks
Less encouragingly when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, China has used more coal to offset oil demand and as an alternative means of petrochemical production as well.
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China → come → production
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
