The World Meteorological Organization has issued its most certain forecast in history, predicting a "nearly 100% likelihood" that this year's El Niño will last through February. The El Niño is expected to be the strongest on record by a wide margin and could increase global average temperatures by up to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit). According to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes" and could lead to extreme weather events worldwide. Climate scientist Daniel Swain warns that the El Niño's intensity may cause unexpected and massive consequences, including potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-04,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño could be the strongest on record since records began four decades ago. The WMO predicts that El Niño will continue through February and warns of increased risks of extreme weather, including more extreme storms in countries such as Britain. Environment Secretary Dame Angela Eagle told the Guardian that the powerful natural climate phenomenon will lead to "more extreme storms" in her country.
Scientists have been studying the link between global warming and El Niño, and a study published recently suggests that human-caused climate change may be making El Niño more extreme. This year's "super" El Niño is forecast to be the strongest on record, prolonging extreme heat, floods, and drought worldwide.
The WMO says it is highly likely that El Niño will persist through February, with a nearly 100% likelihood of its continuation. The strong language from the WMO underlies just how historic this El Niño is shaping up to be, with impacts already being felt throughout the world.
Written for “El Niño Weather Warning” on 2026-09-05,
grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.35, but every quote it verified points left, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 3710: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-09-04
This story was originally published by WIRED and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
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story → publish → collaboration
The world’s leading weather organization is sounding the alarm about this year’s super El Niño, issuing its most certain forecast in the history of the organization.
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organization → lead → organization
In an update issued early Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization predicted a “nearly 100% likelihood” that the El Niño will last through February.
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Niño → issue → February
The strong language from the WMO—the UN’s weather and climate agency—underlies just how historic this El Niño is shaping up to be.
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Niño → underlie → WMO
“This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal,” the agency says, noting that certainty reflects “the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network.”
El Niño is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon defined by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, a pattern that disrupts weather patterns around the world.
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that → say → world
Scientists have been warning since the start of the year that a particularly strong El Niño was set to develop.
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Niño → warn → year
The latest forecasts indicate it will be the strongest on record by a wide margin, and impacts are already being felt throughout the world—and they’re likely to intensify in the coming months.
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they → indicate → months
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
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Guterres → supersize → statement
“The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.
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waters → leave → waters
Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.”
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world → rise → weather
In addition to affecting regional weather, El Niño also tends to bump up the global average temperature by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.2 to 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by releasing heat into the atmosphere.
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Niño → affect → atmosphere
But this year’s iteration could provide an even bigger boost.
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iteration → provide → boost
The intensity of this El Niño means this year is likely to be the hottest on record; because it takes a while for the added heat to work through the climate system, 2027 is forecast to be even hotter.
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2027 → mean → system
This extra warming is a red alert when compounded on top of the warming caused by manmade climate change.
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warming → compound → change
The UN warned in a separate report this week that the world will likely cross 1.5 degrees C of warming over the next few years.
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world → warn → years
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources research network, says this El Niño will be so big, “with consequences that are so large, I’m not sure we fully understand them.”
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we → say → them
The intensity of the El Niño, Swain says, means that it may cause unexpected and extreme weather, and he cautions against making certain predictions about what, exactly, is going to happen over the next year.
uncertain
what → say → year
But the impacts, he says, will almost certainly be massive.
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he → say → ?
“This is probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events—aside from long-term warming, which really isn’t a singular event—that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing,” he says.
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he → experience → that
“That’s a very big deal.
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That → ’ → ?
And I think there’s certainly going to be dramatic outcomes from this.
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While the El Niño won’t reach its full strength for another few months, the world has already seen some impacts: The US just lived through the hottest summer on record, and the heat was almost certainly juiced up by El Niño.
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heat → reach → Niño
Regions that are typically dry during El Niño have also seen drought emerge.
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drought → see → Niño
In Sudan, low water levels in the Nile are exacerbating a yearslong hunger crisis, while Puerto Rico has turned to water rationing due to dry conditions and infrastructure failures.
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Rico → exacerbate → conditions
Fisheries in the eastern Pacific have also been thrown into disarray by the hotter-than-normal waters there.
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Fisheries → throw → waters
“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people,” Guterres said in the release.
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Guterres → rise → release
“We must win that race.”
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We → win → race
