In short:
The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, says the World Meteorological Organization.
uncertain
Organization → set → 2027
The UN climate agency says this raises risks of extreme weather into next year.
asserted
this → say → year
The WMO says it is highly likely that El Niño will continue through to February.
asserted
Niño → say → February
El Niño could be the strongest since records began four decades ago, the United Nations' climate agency has warned, with the UN chief warning the world is in the "danger zone of extreme weather".
uncertain
world → begin → weather
The naturally occurring weather phenomenon is set to become "very strong" in the months ahead and is near certain to persist through to February, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday.
asserted
Organization → occur → February
El Niño warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
asserted
Niño → warm → winds
"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began — so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades," WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva.
uncertain
Saulo → continue → Geneva
El Niño will peak towards the end of this year — though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, said the WMO.
asserted
WMO → peak → 2027
Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.
asserted
Heat → release → temperatures
The powerful 2023-24 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and "we should not be surprised if this record is broken", Ms Saulo added.
asserted
Saulo → contribute → record
"El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat," the WMO said.
asserted
WMO → establish → floods
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.
But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.
asserted
it → cause → extremes
"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," said UN chief Antonio Guterres.
asserted
Guterres → supersize → eyes
"The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.
asserted
waters → leave → waters
Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather," he said.
asserted
he → rise → weather
'Massive blow' to economies
"This exceptional El Niño … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world"
asserted
Niño → deliver → world
, said Ms Saulo.
asserted
Saulo → say → ?
"We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.
asserted
Niño → see → droughts
She put disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water on notice, saying there was "no time to lose" in getting ready.
asserted
She → put → notice
El Niño typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.
asserted
Niño → take → months
Conditions oscillate between El Niño and its opposite La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
asserted
Conditions → oscillate → between
"Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity," the WMO said.
asserted
WMO → fuel → intensity
The UN agency classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the highest level out of four.
asserted
it → classify → four
The WMO said there was an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent" that El Niño will continue through to February.
asserted
Niño → say → February
Pacific Ocean heating up
El Niño can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific.
asserted
Niño → reshape → Pacific
Every El Niño is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns.
asserted
events → follow → patterns
This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.
asserted
This → include → tropics
For September-November, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures "across almost all land areas", alongside rainfall patterns showing a "pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Niño", the UN's weather and climate agency said.
asserted
agency → indicate → Niño
The index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, has strengthened from an average 1.5C above normal between May and July.
uncertain
which → measure → May
Weekly values between late July and mid-August ranged from around 2.2C to 2.6C above average, indicating continued El Niño intensification.
asserted
values → range → intensification
The Aporia
