Climate scientists have been closely monitoring what is happening off Australia's east coast over recent months and are increasingly concerned by what they are seeing.
asserted
they → monitor → what
Pacific Ocean temperatures, a key driver of El Niño, are rising at an extraordinary pace and starting to enter uncharted territory.
asserted
temperatures → rise → territory
The dark, red tongue spreading in the Pacific is growing at a rate not seen in living memory.
asserted
tongue → spread → memory
The El Niño brewing there is already breaking records, and it is months away from its peak.
asserted
it → break → peak
The sheer magnitude of the event and the uncertainty over what is driving it have alarmed experts.
asserted
what → drive → experts
Among them is senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology Felicity Gamble, who said the rate of warming over the past six months was the fastest ever recorded.
asserted
rate → say → months
"We're actually seeing record values and record values by quite a significant margin as well," she said.
asserted
she → see → margin
"That does raise a lot of concern by meteorologists, oceanographers and marine scientists."
asserted
That → raise → meteorologists
Across the globe, anxiety over its backlash is growing, triggering a stark warning by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
asserted
anxiety → grow → Organization
"El Niño in Spanish means boy child, but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.
asserted
it → mean → world
We are already seeing disruption and devastation," WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said.
asserted
Saulo → see → disruption
But in other parts of the world, the first ripples are being felt.
asserted
ripples → feel → world
"From droughts and floods, we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies," Professor Saulo said.
asserted
Saulo → expect → droughts
"This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response.
asserted
Niño → demand → preparation
Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilisation.
asserted
we → launch → mobilisation
Decades of research has deepened our understanding of how Pacific Ocean temperatures shape global weather, leaving countries better prepared than ever for potential impacts.
But questions remain over how El Niño, and its cooler counterpart La Niña, will behave in a warming world.
Fires linked to El Niño have blanketed Indonesia and Malaysia.
1983 El Niño record looms large
In autumn 1982, weather conditions across eastern Australia shifted dramatically and rainfall effectively ceased.
asserted
rainfall → deepen → Australia
The intense dry spell persisted for almost 12 months, with most of Victoria, southern New South Wales and parts of South Australia and Queensland experiencing record low rainfall.
asserted
most → persist → rainfall
John McBride was a research scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology at the time and said the event, which triggered severe drought, the 1983 Melbourne dust storm and the Ash Wednesday bushfires, "came from nowhere".
"In the lifetime of the active scientists working on atmosphere and ocean, we'd never seen anything like this," he said.
asserted
he → say → this
Scientists did not know at the time that these conditions coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events in the modern era.
asserted
conditions → know → era
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which fluctuates every two to seven years.
asserted
which → know → Oscillation
In the early 80s, ENSO was not well understood, and there was a widespread belief that it was not possible to forecast weather and climate conditions beyond one to two weeks, a consensus challenged by Dr McBride and his colleague Neville Nicholls.
asserted
it → understand → McBride
The pair published a scientific paper in February 1983 describing the relationship between ENSO and seasonal rainfall in Australia.
asserted
pair → publish → Australia
It caused a stir among scientists around the world, given the climate conditions unfolding globally at the time, and the findings were pivotal in shaping the modern understanding of seasonal forecasting.
asserted
findings → cause → forecasting
"No-one believed us when we were doing this work … they were saying, 'Maybe it's just statistics, it's just correlations, but there's no physical mechanism by which you can have forecasts on that time scale,'" Dr McBride said.
asserted
McBride → believe → scale
"The timing of our paper was fortuitous, I guess; we sort of went from people working on things that were wrong to heroes almost overnight."
asserted
that → guess → heroes
The Melbourne dust storm and the Ash Wednesday fires fell into the El Niño event of 1982/83.
asserted
storm → fall → 1982/83
This year's El Niño behaving differently
In the more than 40 years since Dr McBride and Professor Nicholls's paper, extensive research has built on their findings, leading to detailed seasonal forecasts that help inform decision-making for farmers and emergency services.
asserted
that → behave → farmers
Scientists have now identified regions within the Pacific Ocean, where they measure water temperatures to help determine which phase ENSO is in.
asserted
ENSO → identify → phase
If temperatures are significantly warmer than usual, an El Niño is likely, but colder than usual means it's likely a La Niña could develop.
uncertain
Niña → mean → ?
The key region is known as Niño3.4, and its associated relative index removes the warming trend due to climate change.
asserted
index → know → change
That's important because otherwise it might seem like El Niño is happening more often.
uncertain
Niño → seem → ?
Models suggest the index will surpass 2.6 degrees Celsius this month, the January 1983 threshold.
asserted
index → suggest → threshold
While it reached 2.65C in 1902, the reliability of the data improves as time goes on, so '83 can be considered the strongest in living memory.
asserted
83 → reach → memory
The forecast for this event is a staggering 3.6C, which would obliterate all previous records if it eventuates.
asserted
it → obliterate → records
El Niño and climate change 'load the dice'
asserted
Niño → load → dice
As the world continues to emit record amounts of fossil fuels, and temperatures rise, research has suggested the natural swings between La Niña and El Niño are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.
uncertain
swings → continue → change
While it is not entirely clear what is driving the intensity of this year's event, Monash University adjunct professor and climate councillor Andrew Watkins said warming global temperatures could be contributing.
uncertain
temperatures → drive → event
"Climate change basically means that we're heating up the atmosphere, but about 90 per cent of that heat actually gets driven into the oceans," he said.
asserted
he → mean → oceans
"The oceans are really what drives El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, and causes a lot of those changes to Australian climate.
asserted
what → drive → climate
"So we get that double impact of climate change warming our atmosphere, but also changing the strength of our El Niño and La Niña events.
asserted
change → get → events
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
