An overwhelming majority of Canadians want Alberta to remain part of a unified Canada and would vote for their own province to do the same, according to new data from Ipsos exclusively for Global News.
uncertain
province → want → News
A full 81 per cent of respondents outside of Alberta said they want the Wild Rose province to remain part of Canada, with just nine per cent saying they want the province to leave.
asserted
province → say → Canada
The desire for Alberta to remain in Canada was weaker in Quebec, which is having their own conversation about independence.
asserted
which → remain → independence
But 69 per cent of respondents in that province still wanted Alberta to reject separation.
asserted
Alberta → want → separation
Overall, Ipsos said their data suggests that Canadians are feeling more united despite separatist sentiment taking up the oxygen in Quebec and Alberta.
uncertain
sentiment → say → Quebec
“The country’s more united right now, especially around the (trade) war with the United States … and dealing with Donald Trump and other issues, than they were in 2019,” said Gregory Jack, a senior vice president with Ipsos Global Affairs.
asserted
Jack → ’ → Affairs
“(That’s) despite the fact that, you know, it feels like the country is really divided with a potential referendum in Quebec and a referendum here in Alberta.
asserted
country → ’ → Alberta
Just 16 per cent of respondents nationally — excluding Albertans — felt that their provinces would be better off if they separated from Canada, and just 22 per cent of Albertans agreed.
asserted
cent → exclude → Albertans
Both numbers are down since Ipsos asked the same question in 2019, when 33 per cent of Albertans said they’d be better off alone.
asserted
they → ask → Albertans
Only 23 per cent of Canadians outside of Alberta said they felt less committed to Canada than a few years ago, with 28 per cent of Albertans saying they felt that way.
asserted
they → say → Albertans
Again, the percentage of Albertans who agreed with the sentiment was down sharply since 2019.
asserted
who → agree → 2019
Get breaking National news
Canadians outside of Alberta were less likely than those in Alberta to feel their province was not getting its fair share from Ottawa, with just 26 per cent of respondents saying their province doesn’t get a fair shake.
asserted
province → get → shake
Nearly one in two Albertans (48 per cent) told the pollster their province didn’t get a fair deal from Confederation.
asserted
province → tell → Confederation
“The major outlier is the measure on whether the province gets its fair share from Confederation, where Albertans remain more likely than other Canadians to believe this is the case,” Ipsos said in its polling results.
asserted
Ipsos → get → results
“The data suggest Albertans, while feeling closer to the national average on many measures, still want a discussion on benefits from Confederation, but that it doesn’t necessarily translate to desire to separate.”
asserted
it → suggest → desire
Albertans will vote in a referendum next month that asks, among other questions, if they want to start the legally required process to hold a formal vote on separation.
asserted
they → vote → separation
A victory for the separatists on Oct. 19 would kick off campaigning in earnest for both the separatists and those who want the province to remain within Canada.
asserted
province → kick → Canada
Ipsos found that a strong majority (70 per cent) of Albertans want to remain part of Canada, while 20 per cent want to hold a referendum on separation.
asserted
cent → find → separation
But Ipsos found that the separatist vote may be softer than believed.
uncertain
vote → find → ?
- Lions climb standings with win over Roughriders
-
asserted
Lions → climb → Roughriders
RCMP remind drivers to stop for school buses after two Kelowna students are struck by a vehicle
-
asserted
students → remind → vehicle
Planned driving safety training campus in Beaumont gets $38.5M from province
-
asserted
campus → plan → province
Death of pregnant woman and her baby prompts call for Saskatchewan rural health changes
asserted
Death → prompt → changes
If the province moves to holding a binding referendum on separation, the number of respondents who would vote to stay rises to 84 per cent, while just 16 per cent would vote for separation.
asserted
cent → move → separation
That suggests more people want to hold a referendum than want to actually leave the country.
uncertain
people → suggest → country
“Rural Albertans, older Albertans and male Albertans are more likely to say that they want to go and younger Allbertans, more urban Albertans here in Calgary or in Edmonton are more likely to see that they’re going to want to stay,” Jack said.
asserted
Jack → say → Edmonton
“We should see perhaps some more movement in the next couple of weeks as the referendum gets closer, but a lot people have a position on this.
asserted
people → see → this
I think that they took it earlier in the campaign and they haven’t really changed their position whether they’re on the ‘yes’ side or the ‘no’ side.”
asserted
they → think → side
Both Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party are committed to campaigning for Alberta to remain a province in Canada — although Ipsos’ had some surprising numbers about which politician might be better suited to arguing that position with Albertans.
uncertain
politician → commit → Albertans
In more bad news for Poilievre, Ipsos’ findings suggest Carney is more popular than he is in Alberta — traditionally the Conservatives’ heartland, and the province Poilievre now represents in the House of Commons.
asserted
Poilievre → suggest → Commons
Just over half (51 per cent) of Albertans said they had a favourable view of Carney, compared to 35 per cent who viewed the prime minister unfavourably.
asserted
who → say → minister
For Poilievre, support was more divided — with 44 per cent of Albertans viewing him favourably, compared to 40 per cent unfavourably.
asserted
cent → divide → cent
“That’s something we don’t often see in Alberta,” Jack noted.
asserted
Jack → ’ → Alberta
“(Carney) hasn’t played a key role so far in the referendum, but obviously these numbers suggest that he could in the future.”
uncertain
he → play → future
The Ipsos poll was conducted for Global News between Sept. 18 and 22, and surveyed 1,500 voting-aged Canadians — 600 in Alberta, and 900 in the rest of Canada.
asserted
poll → conduct → Canada
A similar poll of 1,500 Canadians would be considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points.
asserted
poll → consider → points
The Aporia
