'Bare consensus' say Alberta should take more control over immigration to the province
Albertans are divided over immigration but attitudes are “softening,” while nearly half still don’t know which way they’ll vote on nine non-separation questions in the Oct. 19 referendum, a new poll commissioned by CBC News suggests.
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poll → say → News
“There's a huge contrast between opinion toward question 10 (the separation question) and opinion toward the other nine,” said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, whose Janet Brown Opinion Research directed a random survey of 1,200 Albertans between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21.
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Research → be → Sept.
“We really have seen a great deal of consistency over the last several months on … how people would vote for separation.
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people → see → separation
You know, attitudes there are only changing slightly and very few people remain undecided about those questions.
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people → know → questions
Five of those nine questions deal with immigration issues, the other four deal with changes to the Constitution.
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four → deal → Constitution
On the immigration questions, the poll found 54 per cent of respondents agree that Alberta should take more control over immigration to the province, down three points from April.
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Alberta → find → April
“We're seeing that overall attitudes haven't changed very much, but those attitudes are softening,” Brown explained.
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Brown → see → ?
Those who “strongly agree” with the statement dropped from 40 per cent to 33 per cent, with those who “somewhat agree” increasing by four percentage points since the last poll.
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who → agree → poll
The intensity has changed, but the overall ‘agree,’ ‘disagree’ numbers haven't changed very much,” she said.
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she → change → ?
The original nine questions announced by Premier Danielle Smith in February focus on immigration policy and constitutional changes.
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questions → announce → policy
In May, the question relating to separation was added to the ballot and has since occupied much of the discourse around the referendum.
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question → relate → referendum
According to the survey, 49 per cent of respondents did not yet know how they will be voting on the nine questions apart from the one on separation.
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they → accord → separation
“With less than a month remaining, people aren't feeling very connected to these nine questions yet,” Brown said.
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Brown → remain → questions
Immigration attitudes becoming less ‘intense’
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attitudes → become → ?
“There is a consensus — a bare consensus — that we should take more control over immigration, but not a consensus on what that should look like,” Brown said.
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Brown → be → what
The poll, carried out by Trend Research, did not put the immigration and constitutional referendum questions to respondents directly, but rather addressed larger themes.
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poll → carry → themes
When asked if the province should limit temporary residents’ free access to health care and education, about 45 per cent of respondents agreed.
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cent → ask → respondents
But compared to a similar question posed in April this year, those who strongly disagreed increased by four percentage points.
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who → compare → points
Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said that as Albertans discuss the ideas on the ballot, such as the proposed policies to restrict temporary residents’ access to public services, support for those ideas seems to be decreasing.
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support → say → ideas
“I think that what we've seen over the last number of weeks as people have come back from summer vacation, they've seen signs saying 'no to the nine,' for example, and they've started wondering what are the nine [questions] and engaging a little bit more around that," said Young.
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Young → think → that
The poll also asked people if, “on the whole, Alberta benefits from immigration to the province from other countries.”
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Alberta → ask → countries
Sixty-three per cent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat agreed.
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they → say → respondents
“That's a very strong number,” Brown said.
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Brown → say → ?
So on balance as a province, we do feel that immigrants have a positive contribution.”
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immigrants → feel → contribution
That figure is down 18 percentage points from Sept. 2021, when the same question was posed for a poll conducted for the Business Council of Alberta.
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question → pose → Alberta
But, Brown said, the context in which the question was posed is entirely different.
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question → say → which
“It was the ‘Alberta is Calling’ era.
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Alberta → call → ?
It was the era when we were fretting about not having enough people coming to the province, having a labour shortage,” she explained.
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she → fret → shortage
“Fast forward to today, now that we're in a trade war, now that we're feeling like housing prices are going up, I think that accounts for the difference of opinion.”
In the past five years, Alberta’s population has grown by roughly 600,000 people.
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population → fast → people
People not feeling ‘connected’ to the 9, yet
While 49 per cent of respondents say they don’t know how they will vote on the non-separation questions, 75 per cent say they will definitely cast a ballot for all nine questions, with 11 per cent suggesting they may possibly skip some questions.
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they → feel → questions
Forty-four per cent of those polled said they feel either not at all familiar or not very familiar with the nine questions.
“When we look at some of these responses together, what we're seeing is that people have the intention of figuring out these questions and answering them when they go to vote, but they haven't yet done that,” Young explained.
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Young → poll → that
“And it'll be interesting to see how many of them follow through once they do start trying to wade through the specifics of the questions and trying to make sense of the context for them.”
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they → see → them
Polling data indicate that NDP voters seem to be a lot more familiar with the nine questions than UCP supporters, Brown said.
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Brown → indicate → supporters
Sixty-nine per cent of respondents who identify as NDP supporters say they’re very or somewhat familiar with the nine questions, while 45 per cent of those expressing support for the UCP feel the same.
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cent → identify → UCP
“I think that speaks to the fact that there's been a very strong ‘no to the nine’ campaign,” Brown said.
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Brown → think → campaign
“And I don't think there's been an equally strong campaign coming out of the UCP to vote yes for the nine.”
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I → think → nine
“So it seems right now that those people who are in the NDP camp — those people would vote NDP if we had an election today — they are more tuned in right now to those other nine questions, paying more attention to them than UCP supporters are.”
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supporters → seem → them
Only 11 per cent of UCP supporters said they will vote ‘yes’ to all nine questions, despite the province promoting this position.
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province → say → position
61 per cent of UCP voters said they do not know yet how they will vote.
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they → say → voters
In contrast, 52 per cent of NDP supporters said they would vote ‘no’ to all nine, showing greater support for their position.
“For people who don't follow politics closely, who aren't as interested, there may be a desire to go out and vote on this one kind of existential [separation] question that I think most Albertans have got their head around one way or another at this point, but then not feel prepared to vote on the others,” Young said.
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Young → say → others
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
