Lightning Strikes Thrice

Read the original at Reason ↗
Reason · collected 2026-09-25 · by Josh Blackman

Quick Summary

A law professor at The Volokh Conspiracy discusses a recent Supreme Court order regarding standing and procedural issues in a Missouri case, noting that five justices disagreed with the court's handling of the matter despite initial orders from Justice Kavanaugh appearing unanimous. The professor questions whether Justices Thomas and Alito supported Kavanaugh to maintain unity and highlights that this ruling will likely be cited by conservatives for years due to its clarity on Purcell principles.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-25, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

A federal appeals court in Missouri ordered on September 18 that the state must use newly drawn Republican-backed congressional districts for November’s midterm elections, despite previous rulings by both the U.S. Supreme Court and the Missouri Supreme Court blocking their implementation. The new map, favored by former President Donald Trump, aims to benefit Republicans by altering district boundaries and splitting existing ones. This decision follows a long-standing legal battle over redistricting in Missouri, which has seen multiple conflicting court orders affecting voter registration and ballots already printed using the old 2022 map. As a result, the case is likely headed back to the U.S. Supreme Court for a final ruling before November's elections.

Written for “Missouri Redistricting Saga” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 26 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
13
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
23%
3 of 13 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
65.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
27
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Missouri Redistricting Saga
Politics · 27 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 23% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBS News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 25 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles discuss the Supreme Court's decision on the same day blocking Missouri from using a new map for the upcoming election and reinstating an older district map.”
NPR
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 9% hedged 2 of 23 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles discuss the Supreme Court's decision to block a Trump-backed Missouri congressional map, referencing it as occurring on the same day with identical context and implications.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 8% hedged 1 of 13 📰 publisher trust 72
“Both articles discuss the Supreme Court's decision on Missouri's congressional map for the November election, referencing a per curiam ruling and addressing similar legal points.”
Los Angeles Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 36 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles refer to the Supreme Court rejecting Missouri's bid for an additional Republican-leaning congressional district for the third time in a month.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 33 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles discuss a Supreme Court decision related to Missouri's congressional map, indicating the same legal dispute and timing.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles discuss the Supreme Court's third intervention in Missouri’s congressional map, indicating the same specific legal proceeding.”
Reason
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 12 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles refer to different judicial comments and rulings by Judge Colleen McMahon and a per curiam from the Supreme Court, respectively.”
ABC News (US)
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles discuss the U.S. Supreme Court's final ruling on Missouri redistricting, blocking a federal appeals court directive and preserving the status quo for the election map.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 26 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles discuss the Supreme Court's third rejection of Missouri Republicans' redistricting efforts on the same date.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 1 of 6 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A describes the Supreme Court's order regarding Missouri's congressional map, while Article B discusses standing and unanimity issues in relation to multiple orders, not specifically the same incident.”

Publisher

Reason · 527 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
2026-10-02
Would a Firing Squad Have Been More 'Humane' for Christa Pike?
2026-09-26
"I Will Not Stand for Being Jerked Around … by Any Lawyer Who Practices Before Me"
2026-09-18
New Article: Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections: Bringing Clarity To The Necessary and Proper Clause
2026-09-05
Lawyers' Responsibility for Hallucinations in Briefs That They Sign

Who wrote this

Josh Blackman
54 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 He could have served in government, but he didn't.
🔮 (Southwick's already fragile reputation would be irreparably tarnished by such a move.)
🔮 The conduct caused disturbances that would have resulted in violence had law enforcement not intervened.
🔮 "It follows that if the underpinning is removed, the increasing professionalism will also disappear.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · Todd Butler's Problematic Publications
🔮 In December 2017, I wrote in National Review that Republican-appointed judges should consider taking senior status so President Trump could fill those seats.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · When Judges Pick Their Law Clerks As Replacements
🔮 Since he joined the Court, Roberts and his family would seek solace from the swamp at Hupper Island after the Court dismisses for the term.
🔮 Even if Congress were to enact a law clearly empowering Article III courts to vacate agency rules or regulations and automatically cause their erasure from the Code of Federal Regulations, vacatur would likely still be inconsistent with the limited nature of the judicial power and the non-delegability of core legislative power to the judiciary.
🔮 That is, Jackson could have given a week or longer, but that delay would have triggered an administrative stay.
🔮 Judge Stras offered some remarks at a pre-scheduled event at William & Mary:
2026-09-27 · assertive framing · A Few More Thoughts On The Missouri Ruling
🔮 Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent The sun is setting shortly and I'm on the go, so my comments about the Missouri order will be brief.
2026-09-25 · mixed framing · Lightning Strikes Thrice
Also by Josh Blackman
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 54 articles by Josh Blackman →

Topics

Court Missouri

Subjects

Court ORG · 4× Kavanaugh PERSON · 2× Purcell PERSON · 2× Alito PERSON · 1× Missouri ORG · 1× Thomas PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent The sun is setting shortly and I'm on the go, so my comments about the Missouri order will be brief.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25
🔮 Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent The sun is setting shortly and I'm on the go, so my comments about the Missouri order will be brief.
2026-09-25 · Reason
Lightning Strikes Thrice · mixed framing

Claims (13 extracted, 3 hedged)

Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent The sun is setting shortly and I'm on the go, so my comments about the Missouri order will be brief. asserted
comments → set → order
First, the Court only addressed standing in a footnote. asserted
Court → address → footnote
I am still not convinced any of the parties had standing but at least 5 members of the Court disagreed, including the Court's leading proceduralist. asserted
members → convince → proceduralist
Second, the per curiam noted that Justice Kavanaugh's prior orders had no noted dissents. asserted
orders → note → dissents
I am still not convinced all three of these orders were unanimous. asserted
three → convince → orders
It may be that Justices Thomas and Alito did not think it was worth alienating Justice Kavanaugh. uncertain
it → think → Kavanaugh
The prior case had serious AISG issues. asserted
case → have → issues
The federal case did not. asserted
case → do → ?
Fourth, the Court says the merits here are unclear. uncertain
merits → say → ?
I think this concession was the price of unanimity. asserted
concession → think → unanimity
Fifth, this is an ironclad Purcell ruling that will be cited by the conservatives for years to come. asserted
that → cite → years
The conservatives may see value in having this ruling as unanimous. uncertain
conservatives → see → ruling
I think the Justices felt they had to smack down the 8th circuit here. asserted
they → think → circuit
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support