Josh Dehaas: A Carney oil blockade would be playing with fire, even if constitutional

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Cite

Special to National Post. (2026, September 3). Josh Dehaas: A Carney oil blockade would be playing with fire, even if constitutional. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/josh-dehaas-a-carney-oil-blockade-would-be-playing-with-fire-even-if-constitutional

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

National Post · collected 2026-09-03 · by Special to National Post analysis

Quick Summary

The article discusses Ontario Premier Doug Ford's suggestion that the federal government block oil exports to the United States as leverage in the trade war, and whether such a move would be constitutional. According to the Constitution Act of 1867, Parliament has residual powers to make laws for Canada's peace, order, and good government, which could potentially override provincial control over natural resources. The article cites several Supreme Court decisions that suggest Ottawa may have strong arguments in favor of imposing embargoes or taxes on Alberta oil exports.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-03, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

American tourism organizations have been aggressively trying to attract Canadian visitors back to the United States through various promotional campaigns since President Donald Trump returned to office and imposed tariffs on Canadian products, causing an informal boycott of travel to the US. Josh Loewen, a Vancouver marketing executive, notes that after Trump’s re-election, Canadian travel to the U.S. dropped dramatically due to the president's rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state and the ensuing trade war. Despite slight improvements in border crossings from May to July, recent escalations—such as the imposition of up to 50% import taxes by both countries—have renewed doubts about any recovery. Loewen believes current efforts to win back Canadian visitors are futile until a new U.S. president takes office and eases tensions between the two nations.

Written for “US Canada Trade War” on 2026-10-19, grounded in this article and the 55 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 US Canada Trade War
Politics · 56 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 27% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
National Post
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 40% hedged 2 of 5 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles refer to the same exact news item about Canadian leaders considering an oil export tax or restrictions as leverage in a trade dispute, and are dated just seconds apart.”
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans strongly right further right than this 🔴 11% hedged 3 of 28 📰 publisher trust 52
“Both articles report on Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to impose retaliatory countertariffs and block trade negotiations with the US, citing public support in Canada.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 19% hedged 6 of 32 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles mention Prime Minister Mark Carney's involvement in a trade dispute with the US, specifically regarding Alberta oil exports, at around the same time period.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 16% hedged 14 of 89 📰 publisher trust 73
“Both articles describe Prime Minister Mark Carney's warning about Canada's pivot from the US and its potential consequences, which appears to be a direct response to the implementation of Canadian tariffs on American goods.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 34 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses the possibility of Prime Minister Mark Carney blocking oil exports to give Canada leverage in the trade war, while Article B mentions a finance minister announcing that the federal gasoline tax will not be re-imposed”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
27%
7 of 26 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
56
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 983 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Special to National Post
91 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Country properties for sale
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Also by Special to National Post
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
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Topics

Alberta Canada Ontario Ottawa the United States

Subjects

Alberta GPE · 8× Canada GPE · 4× The Supreme Court ORG · 3× Carney PERSON · 2× Ottawa GPE · 2× Pierre Trudeau PERSON · 2× the United States GPE · 2× Doug Ford PERSON · 1× Mark Carney PERSON · 1× Ontario GPE · 1×

Narrative

Here Alberta’s argument would be stronger, but one would expect the federal government to push back by arguing the embargo is within its jurisdiction under peace, order and good government, either because it’s an emergency or a national concern.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-03
🔮 The Constitution Act of 1867 assigns all matters that governments may regulate exclusively to either the provinces or the feds, and provides a residual power to Parliament to “make laws for the peace, order, and good government of Canada, in relation to all matters not coming within the classes of subjects by this act assigned exclusively to the legislatures of the provinces.” It’s not always easy to assign a matter exclusively to one level of government.

Claims (26 extracted, 7 hedged)

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the federal government should consider blocking oil exports to the United States to give Canada leverage in the trade war that’s now hitting that province hard. asserted
that → say → province
“Although I understand the need to respond strongly to these tariffs, I cannot think of a more disastrous policy decision than cutting off or taxing Alberta’s oil to the United States,” she said. asserted
she → understand → States
This means the metaphorical taps are now in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s hands. asserted
taps → mean → hands
But can Carney really cut off or put an export tax on Alberta oil without violating the constitutional division of powers? asserted
Carney → cut → powers
The answer is probably yes, but don’t expect Alberta to go down without a fight. asserted
Alberta → expect → fight
The Constitution Act of 1867 assigns all matters that governments may regulate exclusively to either the provinces or the feds, and provides a residual power to Parliament to “make laws for the peace, order, and good government of Canada, in relation to all matters not coming within the classes of subjects by this act assigned exclusively to the legislatures of the provinces.” It’s not always easy to assign a matter exclusively to one level of government. uncertain
It → assign → government
The court has developed certain rules to deal with this reality, but it’s not always clear how they will be applied. asserted
they → develop → reality
For example, if two laws are in conflict and it’s impossible to comply with both laws, the federal law may prevail under the doctrine of paramountcy. uncertain
law → ’ → paramountcy
That said, if a law intrudes on the “core” or the “basic, minimum and unassailable content” of the other order of government’s powers, it may be deemed inapplicable under the doctrine of interjurisdictional immunity. uncertain
it → say → immunity
One thing that’s clear under the Constitution is who owns the oil (and forests … and potash). asserted
who → ’ → oil
Canada transferred ownership of natural resources to the Prairie provinces through the Natural Resources Transfer Agreements and related acts, which became part of the Constitution in 1930. asserted
which → transfer → 1930
It’s also clear that Alberta has exclusive control over the “development, conservation and management of non-renewable natural resources and forestry resources in the province.” asserted
Alberta → ’ → province
That’s from the text of Section 92A, which was added to the Constitution Act of 1982 at Alberta’s insistence. asserted
which → ’ → insistence
If the provinces own their natural resources and have control over their development, how can Ottawa impose embargoes or taxes that would stifle their sale or development? asserted
that → own → sale
It turns out, Ottawa would have a number of strong arguments. asserted
Ottawa → turn → arguments
First, it could point to the 1982 Supreme Court decision in the Exported Natural Gas Tax Reference, where the court examined a federal tax proposed by the Pierre Trudeau government on natural gas, including on exported natural gas, which Alberta opposed. uncertain
Alberta → point → which
Alberta argued that Section 125 of the Constitution Act of 1867, which says, “No lands or property belonging to Canada or any province shall be liable to taxation,” blocked the proposed tax. asserted
lands → argue → tax
The Supreme Court ruled that the proposed tax was a valid exercise of the federal taxation power outlined under Section 91(3) of the act. asserted
tax → rule → act
The court also reasoned that this was not an export tax because it applied also to Canadian consumers, but had it been an export tax, the federal government may have been able to impose that anyway under its “trade and commerce” power, as it had long done with customs duties. So what about a total embargo? uncertain
it → reason → embargo
Here Alberta’s argument would be stronger, but one would expect the federal government to push back by arguing the embargo is within its jurisdiction under peace, order and good government, either because it’s an emergency or a national concern. asserted
it → expect → peace
In 1976, a majority of the Supreme Court held in the Anti-Inflation Act Reference that the Pierre Trudeau government’s price controls aimed at runaway inflation were a valid exercise of that power. asserted
controls → hold → power
More recently, in 2021, the Supreme Court upheld the federal carbon tax as a national concern in the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act References. asserted
Court → uphold → References
Of course, legal arguments aside, it seems obvious the Carney government would be playing with fire by blocking oil exports. asserted
government → seem → exports
While such a move might play well in Ontario and Quebec, Albertans are angry enough about the lost years of oil sands production that have already occurred. uncertain
that → play → production
Any move Carney makes now could antagonize Alberta right before it votes on whether to hold a separation referendum. uncertain
it → make → referendum
National Post Josh Dehaas is Interim Litigation Director with the Canadian Constitution Foundation, a charity that fights for Canadians’ rights and freedoms. asserted
that → fight → rights
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