Aporia · Voting set to begin today in three federal by-elections

Voting begins today in three federal by-elections, taking place in Quebec's Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Toronto's Beaches-East York, and North Vancouver-Capilano ridings. Richard Martel resigned his seat in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord to join the Senate after winning a tight race there in 2025. According to McGill University professor Daniel Béland, holding onto this seat is crucial for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's leadership. The by-elections will replace former cabinet ministers Nate Erskine-Smith and Jonathan Wilkinson.

Written by the local model on 2026-08-31, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Story summary

Voting began on Monday in three federal by-elections, including a potentially close race in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Quebec. The seat was held by Conservative MP Richard Martel since 2018, but he stepped down to join the Senate after being appointed. Martel had won a tight three-way race in the riding in 2025 by about 1,500 votes, beating Liberal and Bloc Québécois candidates. If the Conservatives lose this seat, it could add to concerns about the leadership of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The other two ridings being contested are Beaches-East York, Ontario, which is replacing a former cabinet minister, and North Vancouver-Capilano, British Columbia.

Written for “Canadian Federal Byelections” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Why this leaning score

The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.

if the Tories can’t hold onto that seat, it will add to the narrative that Pierre Poilievre’s leadership is in trouble.

left suggests a negative consequence for Poilievre's leadership

Score -0.35 Confidence high

Leaning score -0.35 for article 3178 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-08-31

📰 Canadian Federal Byelections

Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event.

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Fréchette expected to trigger start of Quebec election campaign today different event · 100%

The Globe and Mail

⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 21

“The articles cover different types of elections (provincial vs federal) at different locations”

Voters head to the polls for 3 federal byelections in Ontario, Quebec, B.C. same event · 100%

CBC | Top Stories News

⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 18 📰 publisher trust 95

“Both articles report on the same three federal by-elections taking place on the same day, specifically mentioning the same ridings: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in Quebec, Beaches-East York in Ontario, and North Vancouver-Capilano is not mentioned in Article A, but it's possible there was a mistake in transcribing that name. However, we can compare the rest of the locations: 'the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York' (Article A) vs. 'the Ontario riding of Beaches–East York' (Article B), which are clearly the same location despite slight differences in wording. Additionally, both articles mention voting getting underway on August 31st, further confirming that they describe the same specific event.”

Trump upended last year’s federal election. Will he do the same to the Quebec campaign? different event · 80%

CBC | World News

⚖️ Leans left 🔴 15% hedged 4 of 26 📰 publisher trust 95

“Article A refers to the Quebec election campaign, while Article B mentions three separate by-elections, including one in Quebec”

The Globe and Mail · 34 article(s) · 7 correction(s) detected

Signal	Value	Weight
Correction rate	0.206	0.4
Uncertainty density	0.078	0.25
Assertive mismatch rate	1.000	0.35

Running correction rate · 7 correction(s)

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The Canadian Press staff

1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 Voting gets under way today in by-elections in three federal ridings, including what could be a close race in rural Quebec.

2026-08-31 · assertive framing · Voting set to begin today in three federal by-elections

Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.

Nothing else under this byline in the corpus.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Conservative Liberal Quebec Senate

Bloc Québécois ORG · 1× Chicoutimi-Le Fjord GPE · 1× Conservative NORP · 1× Daniel Béland PERSON · 1× Liberal NORP · 1× Martel PERSON · 1× McGill University ORG · 1× Quebec GPE · 1× Richard Martel PERSON · 1× Senate ORG · 1×

McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland says if the Tories can’t hold onto that seat, it will add to the narrative that Pierre Poilievre’s leadership is in trouble.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-31

🔮 Voting gets under way today in by-elections in three federal ridings, including what could be a close race in rural Quebec.

2026-08-31 · The Globe and Mail

Voting set to begin today in three federal by-elections · assertive framing

Voting gets under way today in by-elections in three federal ridings, including what could be a close race in rural Quebec. uncertain

what → get → Quebec

Conservative Richard Martel resigned his seat in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord to sit in the Senate. asserted

Martel → resign → Senate

Martel won a tight three-way race in 2025, beating the Liberal and Bloc Québécois candidates by about 1,500 votes. asserted

Martel → win → votes

McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland says if the Tories can’t hold onto that seat, it will add to the narrative that Pierre Poilievre’s leadership is in trouble. asserted

leadership → say → trouble

Elections are also being held today in the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York and in North Vancouver-Capilano. asserted

Elections → hold → Capilano

Those races will replace former cabinet ministers Nate Erskine-Smith and Jonathan Wilkinson. asserted

races → replace → ministers

Voting set to begin today in three federal by-elections

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Claims (6 extracted, 1 hedged)