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Germany's hard-right AfD today predicted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be out of office before the end of the year, a day after his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party suffered two bruising state election defeats.
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party → see → defeats
Alternative for Germany came first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where the CDU sank to 4.9 per cent, below the threshold to stay in parliament and its worst result since the party was formed in 1945.
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party → come → 1945
'The chancellor certainly won't make it to the end of the year,' said Leif-Erik Holm, AfD's top candidate in the Baltic Sea coastal state, adding: 'I think the twilight of the chancellor's era has begun.'
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twilight → make → era
As AfD figures bragged about their state election wins, the party announced a formal partnership with hard-right Italian party Future Nazionale (FN) over the weekend.
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party → brag → weekend
At a rally in the central Italian city of Orvieto on Sunday, FN leader Roberto Vannacci introduced AfD's Marc Jongen, telling the crowd: '"Alarm! Alarming!" they all said, but as you can see he doesn't have a shaved head or tattoos...
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he → introduce → head
Mr Jongen boasted to the crowd that it would not be long before the Italian and German parties 'greet each other through our respective governments'.
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parties → boast → governments
Meanwhile, in just 16 months in office, Mr Merz has seen his approval ratings plummet while his party has suffered a string of state vote losses against AfD, which also leads the nationwide polls.
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which → see → polls
He today vowed to keep his ruling coalition together for the sake of Germany's 'democratic future'.
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He → vow → future
People attend the AfD final election campaign ahead of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election in central Schwerin, Germany, September 19, 2026
German Chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz attends a press conference at CDU party's headquaters after a CDU party board meeting in Berlin, Germany, on September 21 2026
'
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Merz → attend → September
We are determined to live up to the historic responsibilities our country is facing,' said Mr Merz about the coalition between his centre-right CDU and the centre-left SPD.
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Merz → live → CDU
The SPD also vowed to remain in the coalition despite the centre-right party suffering heavy losses in Sunday's votes, while hinting it would push for changes to planned reforms.
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it → vow → reforms
Despite calls for him to step down, Merz repeated he would remain in office and seek to push through hard-fought economic and social welfare reforms.
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he → step → reforms
'But we know that we owe people answers to their worries, to their fears,' he said.
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he → know → fears
Merz pushed back at criticism that his own low popularity ratings were behind the election defeats.
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ratings → push → defeats
'The reasons for these election results go far beyond my own person,' he said.
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he → go → person
'We are witnessing a profound transformation of the political party system in Germany as well as in many other countries around the world.'
Fighting speculation that his CDU/CSU bloc may try to oust him
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bloc → witness → him
, the 70-year-old chancellor took the unusual step of addressing the nation on TV on Sunday, just minutes after the first exit polls were announced.
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polls → take → Sunday
Mr Merz admitted that his CDU had suffered a 'disaster' in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
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CDU → admit → Pomerania
While the AfD came first there, the centre-left SPD party looks set to continue governing the state if it can form a coalition with Left-wing allies.
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it → come → allies
After the CDU was also soundly defeated by a far-left Die Linke in Berlin, Mr Merz charged that 'trust in our country's institutions is waning' and being 'actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right'.
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trust → defeat → left
'What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience,' Mr Merz said.
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Merz → need → backbone
'I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country.'
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I → demonstrate → country
Analysts saw it as an attempt to gain the advantage before another hailstorm of criticism.
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Analysts → see → criticism
'His extremely early move shows that Merz is staking a claim to define the narrative,' political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum told AFP.
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Lembcke → show → AFP
Mr Lembcke labelled this 'leadership from a defensive position - and an attempt to prevent a personnel debate with an uncertain outcome from gathering steam'.
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Lembcke → label → steam
Alternative for Germany came first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where the CDU sank to 4.9 per cent
Roberto Vannacci (pictured), the head of Future Nazionale, at a rally on Sunday
ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski said of Mr Merz's unusual TV address: 'Read the appearance for what it was, an attempt to choke off the speculation about his possible resignation that has been building in recent weeks.
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that → come → weeks
The chancellor has also cleared his calendar for the following days and skipped a trip to New York for the UN General Assembly to deal with potential aftershocks from the votes.
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chancellor → clear → votes
Hard-right figures across Europe almost immediately began gloating at the CDU defeat.
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figures → begin → defeat
In the Netherlands Geert Wilders, who has led the Party for Freedom (PVV) since its founding in 2006, said last night on X: 'Bye bye Merz.'
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who → lead → X
On top of this, the Kremlin in Russia today claimed that Germans were looking for a political 'alternative' after Mr Merz's election defeats.
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Germans → claim → defeats
'To a large extent, the decline in the competitiveness of the German economy is due to the fact that Germany has stopped purchasing cheap Russian gas and started buying very expensive gas,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
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Peskov → stop → gas
'Naturally, the Germans - or at least some of them - are looking for an alternative to the current government in order to improve their situation,' he added.
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he → look → situation
Mr Merz has been fighting off rumours he may be ousted for weeks.
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he → fight → weeks
Names of hopefuls for the top job that have been floated include Hendrik Wuest, state premier of populous North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Soeder, the Bavarian state premier and head of the CSU, the regional sister party of the CDU.
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that → float → CDU
However, no contender has made an open move for the job – perhaps fearing the act of disloyalty could backfire, or intimidated by the tough task of trying to revive the party's fortunes during one of its worst-ever crises.
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act → make → crises
When Mr Merz took office in May last year, he vowed to reboot a flagging economy, rebuild the military to deter Russia and reduce irregular immigration to soothe voters' fears and lure them away from the AfD.
But his personal approval ratings are hovering just above 10 per cent, not helped by his occasionally blunt and abrasive comments.
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ratings → take → comments
The latest elections came two weeks after the hard-right, pro-Trump and Moscow-friendly AfD also dealt a stunning defeat to the CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.
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AfD → come → Anhalt
The string of election debacles comes as Mr Merz has struggled to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his coalition partners in the SPD.
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Merz → come → SPD
Under-fire Merz received some badly needed support from CDU powerbrokers last week when eight state premiers declared jointly that Germany needs 'stability now more than ever' rather than 'discussions about personnel'.
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Germany → receive → personnel
They refrained, however, from issuing a personal endorsement of the chancellor.
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They → refrain → chancellor
The Aporia
