The Silver Bulletin's election forecast model, FLIPR, predicts that Democrats are likely to govern more Americans than Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. According to the forecast, it is uncertain which party will control the majority of governorships. The model, which takes into account various polls and adjustments, projects these outcomes based on approximately 40,000 simulations with a small amount of sampling error. The forecast also models Senate, House, and gubernatorial election outcomes jointly, allowing for calculations such as the probability of one party holding the Senate but losing the House.
Written by the local model on 2026-08-31,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Nate Silver's forecast, known as FLIPR, predicts that Democrats will govern more Americans than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections. According to the forecast, Democrats have a strong chance of retaining control of the House, but the outcome for the Senate is less certain. The forecast also suggests that it is unclear which party will hold the majority of governorships. The model takes into account various factors, including polling averages and adjustments for factors such as house effects and outdated polls. The forecast updates are regularly posted on the Silver Bulletin website. Democrats' chances of governing more Americans than Republicans are considered almost certain, but the exact outcome in terms of control of the Senate and governorships is less predictable.
Written for “FLIPR Midterm Election Forecast” on 2026-08-31,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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Leaning score -0.35 for article 1936 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-08-31
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Continuing our recent theme, we have a new article out on the 9 key governors races of 2026.
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we → continue → 2026
Democrats are almost certain to govern more Americans than Republicans.
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Democrats → govern → Republicans
But it’s less certain which party will control the majority of governorships.
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party → ’ → governorships
We’ll regularly update the charts below as new election polls and other data come in.2
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polls → update → charts
This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.
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page → design → app
If you’re curious about how the model works, and what’s new for 2026 (quite a lot, actually), we also have a very detailed methodology article.
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we → ’re → article
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, and they include various adjustments.
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they → include → adjustments
They account for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, and for house effects.
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polls → account → effects
They weight more reliable polls more heavily.
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They → weight → polls
They also include a “timeline adjustment”, where outdated polls are revised to reflect trends in the generic ballot.
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polls → include → ballot
Speaking of the generic ballot, you can find a version of it with our likely-voter adjustment below; this is the version that FLIPR uses.
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FLIPR → speak → that
We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.
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They are typically based on 40,000 simulations and include a small amount of sampling error.
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They → base → error
FLIPR models House, Senate and gubernatorial elections jointly, meaning that we can calculate the probability of things like Republicans holding the Senate but losing the House.
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Republicans → mean → House
